March is finally here, and college basketball will take center stage in the sports universe for the next few weeks.
This week features a mix of high-leverage regular-season finales and the start of tournament play for one-bid leagues as teams across the country look to secure their March Madness spots. That'll be followed by a week of high-major conference tournaments with high potential for drama ahead of Selection Sunday on March 15.
But before that happens, let's run down what's at stake in the final week of the regular season.
Duke looks to take down state rivals
One of this season's wildest stats: Duke is 27-2 but was leading or tied in the last 10 seconds of both losses. The Blue Devils are two last-second buckets away from being a perfect 29-0, and they notched impressive wins over Kansas, Florida, Michigan State, and Michigan.
Duke has a chance to finish 29-2 by defeating its biggest in-state rivals, NC State and North Carolina. Jon Scheyer and Co. draw the Wolfpack first. NC State's up-and-down campaign is currently in a "down" period with four losses in the last five games, including two blowouts. The Wolfpack shouldn't pose a significant challenge for Duke on Monday, but a road game against an in-state opponent is never a cakewalk.
Then the Blue Devils get a rematch with North Carolina on Saturday. Duke sprinted to an 18-5 lead in their Feb. 7 meeting, but the Tar Heels eventually won thanks to a Seth Trimble 3-pointer with less than a second remaining. Another massive difference-maker in that game was star North Carolina freshman Caleb Wilson, who dropped 23 points. However, he's missed the last three weeks due to injury, and he's unlikely to be back for this one.
Duke, which plays in a weak ACC, has all but wrapped up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But the Blue Devils will have revenge on their minds against North Carolina, and a win could help them build momentum as they prepare to face formidable competition later in March.
Tie atop the Big East?
In the power conferences, this year's races for regular-season titles haven't been very interesting. All Florida has to do in the SEC is beat 13-16 Mississippi State to secure an outright championship. At 27-2, Arizona needs to win one of its two remaining games to do the same in the Big 12. Duke all but locked up the ACC title by crushing Virginia over the weekend, and Michigan's already taken home the Big Ten crown with over a week remaining.
That leaves the Big East, where St. John's and UConn could tie for the regular-season championship after splitting the season series. The Huskies only have last-place Marquette remaining on their schedule, so they'll likely finish 18-2 in conference play.
Meanwhile, St. John's gets an easy matchup against Georgetown on Tuesday and then travels to fourth-place Seton Hall to wrap up the campaign Friday. In January, the Pirates led by 15 in the second half at St. John's before a spirited Red Storm comeback. If Seton Hall can play at that level for a full 40 minutes this time, Shaheen Holloway and Co. could come away with a victory that would be critical to their NCAA Tournament hopes.
In that case, UConn would walk away with the outright Big East title. If all five power conferences wound up with an outright champion - and four of them checked the box with a week to spare - that would properly represent how dominant the top teams have been this season.
Miami (Ohio)'s quest for a perfect season
Miami (Ohio) was seconds away from losing its perfect season Friday against Western Michigan. With original starting point guard Evan Ipsaro already out for the year and new starter Luke Skaljac out due to injury, the RedHawks were down to third-string point guard Trey Perry. The team trailed by as many as nine points with under seven minutes left.
In storybook fashion, Perry hit a dramatic game-winner with a second remaining to keep the streak alive. However, the fact that Miami (Ohio) nearly lost to a 4-12 MAC squad showed how vulnerable this group is without its two best ball-handlers.
In order to go undefeated in the regular season, the RedHawks need to win two reasonably challenging games: a home matchup with 10-6 Toledo and a visit to 9-7 Ohio. There's no word on Skaljac's availability.
There's been a lot of discussion about the merits of the RedHawks' March Madness case if they don't win the MAC Tournament. In the event they don't secure that autobid, it seems like they'll need an undefeated regular season at minimum to earn serious consideration. With Miami (Ohio) potentially missing Skaljac and facing real competition, it's a critical week for this year's team of destiny.
Last chance for bubble teams
Midnight is approaching for a handful of NCAA Tournament hopefuls, and they've got very few chances to improve their resumes.
Auburn likely sealed its own fate with back-to-back losses to lowly Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The Tigers, who looked like March Madness locks after beating Florida, have dropped seven of their last eight. They have a big opportunity at Alabama on Saturday and would likely also need to go on a substantial run in the SEC Tournament. California is in a similar spot. The program owns a better record at 20-9 but has fewer big wins and is coming off a horrific loss to Pittsburgh. The Golden Bears probably need a marquee win in the ACC Tournament to feel safe.
Some of the most interesting battles will take place in the sport's top mid-major leagues. VCU, a bubble team in the Atlantic 10, will face quality opponents in George Mason and Dayton. The Rams likely need to win both of those games to be confident in their chances. Meanwhile, the WCC Tournament starts this week. Santa Clara will likely draw Saint Mary's next Monday in what could essentially be a "win-and-you're-in" showdown, but first, the Broncos have to win their quarterfinal Sunday.
Lastly, the Mountain West may be the wildest race of all. Utah State is firmly in the field and leading the conference, but New Mexico and San Diego State are one game behind and both on the bubble. New Mexico plays Utah State to end the week, and a road win against the Aggies would likely push the Lobos into the field of 68. San Diego State has no such marquee opponent, so the Aztecs need to take care of business against Boise State and UNLV.
Matthew Winick is a college basketball analyst and consultant. You can find his work on X at @matthewwinick.
