After sorting through the East and West regions, it's time to focus on the South Region. We're predicting chaos in the South while eyeing some long shots worth wagering on.
South Region odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Auburn | -110 |
| Michigan State | +475 |
| Iowa State | +600 |
| Texas A&M | +1400 |
| Michigan | +2000 |
| Louisville | +2200 |
| Ole Miss | +2200 |
| Marquette | +2500 |
| North Carolina | +2800 |
| Creighton | +4000 |
| UC San Diego | +5000 |
*Odds longer than 50-1 not listed
South Region winner: Michigan State +475
There's almost always one chaotic region that produces a lower-seeded Final Four team. This has the potential to do that. My long-shot pick below is my Final Four pick in brackets, but we'll still consider it a long shot because the odds are lengthy.
Auburn is rightfully the favorite with its experience and talent, but it trended downward over the last week, losing three of its final four games. Michigan State won the Big Ten regular season title with its depth and balanced scoring attack. This Spartans group is a classic Tom Izzo-coached squad, relying on defense and rebounding to win games. Michigan State has solid guard play, a necessity in the tournament, and clutch shotmaking that could catapult it to the Final Four. Izzo is a proven winner in March. He's the last Big Ten coach to win a national title and could make a run at it again 25 years later.
Long shot pick: Creighton +4000
Creighton has incredibly long odds because it's an underdog in its opening game against Louisville, which will benefit from a partisan crowd in Lexington, Kentucky. However, Creighton is the better team with experienced tournament players.
If it escapes Louisville, Creighton has a good chance to be the first team to knock off a No. 1 seed. The Bluejays play a drop coverage in the pick-and-roll and protect the rim effectively with Ryan Kalkbrenner. They will force Auburn to rely on outside shooting, where the Tigers are inconsistent. Creighton coach Greg McDermott is one of the best in the country and knows what it takes to win in March. This under-seeded Creighton team has the personnel and experience to advance far.
Best opening-round bet
UC San Diego +2.5 vs. Michigan
UC San Diego opened as a 4.5-point underdog and bettors pounced on the Tritons. Michigan won the Big Ten Tournament title Sunday, which involved playing four games in four days. The Wolverines traveled from Indianapolis back to Michigan, then to Denver to get ready for a Thursday game. Meanwhile, San Diego has had more rest over the past week.
Michigan's late-season downfall (before its Big Ten Tournament run) was largely because of turnovers. The Wolverines have the third-worst turnover rate among tournament teams, and UC San Diego is the perfect team to exploit that. The Tritons lead the field in opponent turnover rate and points off turnovers. UC San Diego 's defense should shut down Michigan.
Region future bets
UC San Diego to reach the Sweet 16 (+360)
When UC San Diego defeats Michigan outright - it's only +125 on the moneyline - it will have to beat either Texas A&M or Yale in the Round of 32, two winnable matchups. Yale is a popular upset pick after it stunned Auburn last year. Texas A&M is a tough group that dominates the offensive glass, but UC San Diego is gritty defensively, too. It would only be a slight underdog against Texas A&M and should be favored over Yale.
This is a price to take advantage of after UC San Diego rolled through the Big West en route to 30 wins and a 15-game winning streak entering the tournament.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
