March Madness bets: Thursday's opening-round picks

1 year ago

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It's time to play hooky from work, sit on the couch, and enjoy the madness.

There are 16 games Thursday, and while betting on all of them might seem fun now, you'll likely regret that decision by the time your head hits the pillow at the end of the day. But don't worry - we're here to sort through the games and give our favorite bets for Thursday's slate.

First, here's our preview content to get you ready for the madness:

Now, onto the bets.

Creighton +2.5 vs. Louisville (12:15 p.m. ET)

Few duos in the tournament are more trustworthy than Creighton guard Steven Ashworth and big man Ryan Kalkbrenner, who complement each other perfectly with the former's shooting and the latter's paint presence. Creighton's other starters aren't as consistent, but Louisville is overvalued in this spot. While the Cardinals will benefit from a home crowd in Lexington, Kentucky, their impressive record is misleading due to a weak ACC.

Creighton has tournament experience and is as well coached as any team in the field.

High Point +7.5 vs. Purdue, Over 152.5 (12:40 p.m. ET)

Purdue has the 155th-worst defense in the country since Feb. 1, according to Bart Torvik. It allows opponents to shoot 56% from 2-point range, the worst mark of any tournament team. High Point's defense, meanwhile, struggles against pick-and-roll-heavy guards like Braden Smith. This should be a high-scoring affair, and High Point's offense can keep pace with Purdue's.

The Boilermakers, who lost six of their last nine games, will return to their notorious March shortcomings after appearing in last year's national championship.

Arkansas +4.5 vs. Kansas (7:10 p.m. ET)

Kansas entered the season as one of the national title favorites and has been a mess for most of the campaign. The Jayhawks went 4-5 in their last nine games, and Hunter Dickinson's talent hasn't led to nearly as much winning as expected. He stumbles out of double teams and doesn't get much help from his teammates. Zeke Mayo is the only other player averaging double figures.

Arkansas has had its issues this season, but it won five of its last seven contests. Boogie Fland is also back in the lineup, and John Calipari will bring him off the bench and likely limit his workload. This is ultimately a matchup between two powerhouse coaches - Calipari and Bill Self - whose teams both had disappointing seasons.

Kansas will be sent home and its fans will say good riddance to the Dickinson experience.

Drake +6.5 vs Missouri, Under 131.5 (7:35 p.m. ET)

Drake averages the fewest possessions per game in the country, and its purposefully slow tempo increases its chances of an upset. The lower the score, the tighter the game will be. Drake's defense holds opponents to 58.4 points per game, the best scoring defense of any tournament team.

The Bulldogs successfully force turnovers, crash the offensive glass, and get to the free-throw line - three areas that often lead to upsets in the Big Dance. They also have the third-best free throw rate among tournament teams, the third-best opponent turnover rate, and the seventh-best offensive rebounding rate.

We're again fading a team that's trending in the wrong direction heading into the postseason, as Missouri lost five of its last seven games.

UC San Diego +2.5 vs. Michigan (10 p.m. ET)

Instead of fading a team that's spiraling, let's fade a squad coming off an impressive Big Ten Tournament title. Michigan played four games in four days from last Thursday to Sunday and was then stuck with a Thursday game in Denver. UC San Diego, meanwhile, has benefitted from extra rest.

UC San Diego could have trouble with Michigan's size, but the Wolverines have struggled with turnovers all season. They have the third-worst turnover rate among tournament teams, while UC San Diego has the best opponent turnover rate and scores the most points off turnovers.

We often see teams enjoy successful conference tournament runs and then stumble in the tournament. Michigan will be the latest example.

Yale +7.5 vs. Texas A&M (7:25 p.m. ET)

Texas A&M is the nation's best offensive rebounding team. It creates extra possessions by crashing the glass. Nearly 23% of their points come from second-chance opportunities, the highest percentage in the tournament field.

But Yale has the personnel to neutralize Texas A&M's strength with a physical frontcourt and strong defensive rebounders. It's also one of the tournament's best 3-point shooting teams, while Texas A&M can't shoot from deep.

This is a bad matchup for the Aggies.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.