CBB conference tournament previews: Betting the Big South, NEC, OVC

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Three more mid-major conference tournaments tip off on Wednesday, showing off the three different ways the powers that be select their representatives for the NCAA Tournament. We have a traditional neutral site event, a campus-site tournament with days off in between, and the stage-centric bracket format, where the top seeds await at the end like final bosses in a video game.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

Big South (March 6)

Early-round bets

Quarterfinal: (5) Longwood vs. (4) Winthrop
(Projected line: Winthrop -1)

Digging into the metrics, Winthrop takes 91% of its shots from three or at the rim (T-11 nationally), but its success came more at the rim with a 47.3 field-goal percentage despite lackluster deep shooting. K.J. Doucet and four-year Eagle Kelton Talford can dominate the interior against Longwood's second-to-last field-goal percentage defense on one end while keeping the Lancers off the offensive glass (their specialty) on the other.

Pick: Winthrop (-1)

Quarterfinal: (6) Presbyterian vs. (3) Gardner-Webb
(Projected line: Gardner-Webb -3)

The return of Jamahri Harvey gives Presbyterian better depth, built like the team that won at Vanderbilt to open the season. The Blue Hose closed the season 5-4, and of those four losses, they were down one late as 19.5-point underdogs at top-seeded High Point, had a 15-point lead at UNC Asheville, and lost on a buzzer-beater at USC Upstate. They're better than a team rated as an underdog of more than a possession against an uninspiring Gardner-Webb team.

Pick: Presbyterian (+3)

Best bet to win the tournament

UNC Asheville (+350)

High Point's the odds-on favorite for the tournament, but the team's close to the season left something to be desired with a 4-3 finish that included barely surviving Winthrop at home in overtime. Leading scorer Duke Miles had 20-plus points in 10 of his first 18 games but hasn't hit that mark in nine games since missing three contests midseason. Playing three days in a row might be challenging for a player with an injury history, so we'll look to fade such a heavy favorite.

We don't have to look far for a worthy contender in defending champion Asheville, with back-to-back Big South Player of the Year Drew Pember. The Bulldogs didn't have the offensive ShotQuality metrics of High Point, but they were better defensively. When you need a late bucket to survive and advance, Pember's the most reliable player in the league. Seniors Fletcher Abee and Josh Banks lead a group that's shot 38.2% from three in league play.

Northeast Conference (March 6)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (5) Fairleigh Dickinson @ (4) Le Moyne (-3, 151.5)

Demetre Roberts and Grant Singleton are gone from Fairleigh Dickinson's shocking win over Purdue last year, but four returnees have stepped up. The Knights' ShotQuality metrics are marginally worse than Le Moyne's, but they shouldn't have an issue on the road, having won in suburban Syracuse two weeks ago. We'll rely on FDU's experience to at least keep it close.

Pick: Fairleigh Dickinson (+3 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

Central Connecticut (+130)

KenPom likes Merrimack more than Central Connecticut, which makes the Warriors a 2-point favorite on a neutral court. However, the Blue Devils won the tiebreaker at 13-3 for the top seed in the NEC. Since all games are on campus sites, CCSU would have home-court advantage for a championship game and would be favored over anyone, including Merrimack.

The reason Central Connecticut is the underdog compared to Merrimack is concern about the Blue Devils' pending matchup with Le Moyne, given the Dolphins nipped them twice in the regular season - overtime at home and on a last-second layup after they shot 42% from three (well above their 35.4% average in conference games). Projected as at least 6-point favorites in the semifinal, CCSU should make it to the NEC title game, at which point +135 will be a bet worth letting ride.

Ohio Valley (March 6)

Early-round bet

First round: (8) Southern Indiana vs. (5) Tennessee St. (-3.5, 144.5)

Southern Indiana and Tennessee State are basically the Spider-Man pointing meme. Let's look at their numbers in the OVC:

They've also been neck-and-neck in each game they've played at the respective schools, so now on a neutral court, why not take the points with the Screaming Eagles? Especially since we have Jeremiah Hernandez (20.5 PPG in conference play) on our side.

Pick: Southern Indiana (+3.5 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

Western Illinois (+900)

A 3-seed as the favorite is an odd scenario, but that's how much the metrics love Morehead State. However, the Eagles lost the three-way tiebreaker and now have to play an extra game due to the OVC's bracket format. An even-money bet price for three straight games isn't worth it, even if two of the Eagles' three conference losses came without Jordan Lathon (one of three senior guards leading Morehead in scoring). Instead, we'll look at the top half of the bracket and hope UT Martin - the best 3-point offense in OVC play - can outshoot Morehead.

Western Illinois has the best AdjDEF and rebounding margin in the league but can also shoot threes on the same level as its potential semi-final opponent, Little Rock. Senior big men Jesiah West and Drew Cisse can provide the size mismatch to give the Leathernecks a chance against anyone. Available as long as 10-1, that's more what we're looking for when asking a team to win three games in three nights.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.