Back Michigan State at home against Illinois and other CBB Saturday bets
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We're hitting at a 56% rate on our best college basketball bets. Let's continue a strong week with another exciting slate. Here are our four best bets for Saturday.
Illinois @ Michigan State (-2.5, O/U 145.5)
After a disappointing start to the season, Michigan State is improving. The team's still not the Final Four contender many thought it would be before the season, but it's firmly in the tournament picture.
The Spartans' home-versus-road splits are staggering. They're 12-2 at home and 1-5 on the road. They're also 10-4 against the spread as a home favorite.
Illinois has proven it can win on the road and has won three straight. But I'm not fading Michigan State at home, especially when the Spartans need a win to separate themselves from the middle of the pack in the Big Ten standings.
Pick: Michigan State -2.5
Auburn @ Florida (+1.5, O/U 160.5)
This is a letdown spot for Auburn after a huge home win over Alabama earlier this week.
Auburn boasts the more talented group, but there's a reason this line is as low as it is.
It's hard to win on the road, especially in raucous SEC environments. SEC home underdogs cover the spread 55% of the time.
Florida's been inconsistent and sits in the middle of the conference standings. But the Gators are 9-1 at home and have a top-20 offense in the country. Although Auburn has an elite defense, Florida won't have trouble scoring.
Pick: Florida +1.5
Gonzaga @ Kentucky (-3.5, O/U 167.5)
Kentucky's offense is prolific and has carried it to a 16-6 record, but its defense struggles to consistently get stops.
While the team has a top-five offense on KenPom, its defense doesn't even rank in the top 100. In the last two weeks, Kentucky allowed 103 points to Tennessee and 94 to Florida, losing both games at home.
Over that same span, Gonzaga's offense produced two 90-plus performances against suspect defenses. Its offense ranks ahead of its defense, according to KenPom. The high total reflects it should be a high-scoring, fast-paced contest. I'd also target Gonzaga's team total, as the team is desperate for a resume-boosting win to increase its chances at an at-large bid.
Pick: Over 167.5
Wisconsin @ Rutgers (+3, O/U 128.5)
Wisconsin has lost three straight, including two on the road. That puts it in a desperate situation in another road contest.
Luckily for the Badgers, they are traveling to one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
Wisconsin is 0-4 as a road favorite, which is a troublesome stat, but its roster is talented and will eventually figure out how to win on the road.
The team should also come out energized after three straight losses. Rutgers can't score consistently and showed it's susceptible to losing at home when Penn State defeated the Scarlet Knights in New Jersey last month.
Pick: Wisconsin -3
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.