"What is this paper currency I'm holding?" you say to yourself, having not seen cash in years. However, it's the middle of March, and that means getting a crisp bill from a nearby ATM and plopping it into Jane from accounting's manila envelope, for this is your bet on the NCAA Tournament.
You've also dusted off other relics like a highlighter and red pen, hoping that you'll be joyfully swiping across your winners with very few bloody cross-outs on the way to office pool glory.
How do you achieve that magical high? First, you need to pick the winner of the tournament. With the exception of 2014, when next-to-nobody picked UConn to cut down the nets, the points for picking the champion are mandatory to win your March Madness bracket pool.
Unless you're able to pick (and hit) a team deep down the oddsboard, you'll need to differentiate yourself this year from the rest of those who picked Alabama to cut down the nets. The Crimson Tide are the most popular pick at 19.8%, according to ESPN's Tournament Challenge. That means if you're picking them, you're not competing with the 100 people in your pool; you're competing against the other 19 who took the Crimson Tide.
There are five other rounds, though, and under the assumption that your champion is your most important pick at each level, here are the other five games you need to get right to win your pool.
First round (East Region): (9) Florida Atlantic vs. (8) Memphis
We rarely find importance in the No. 8 versus 9 game because they're usually headed for a second-round exit, and then even if they upset the 1-seed, few in your pool will have had that pick anyway. However, Florida Atlantic and Memphis both can beat Purdue, and your competitors likely know that.
Lined at Memphis -2, it's anyone's guess as to whether the Owls or Tigers win, but given that KenPom.com would have them in the 5/6-seed area, whoever does survive should be taken to the Sweet 16, making this the most relevant No. 8 versus 9 game in years.
Second round (South Region): (7) Michigan State vs. (2) Marquette
Backing Michigan State can leave us looking like a forlorn Tom Izzo on the sidelines, but on the other hand, what's more fun than a happy Izzo shoulder-shrugging his way to the Final Four? Maybe the answer is high-energy Shaka Smart, who has led Marquette to a Big East championship double.
If the senior-laden Spartans don't trip and fall over USC in the first round, that might be the sign of a burgeoning heater. With Kansas State and Kentucky very beatable in the bottom half of the South bracket, either Michigan State or Marquette is worth pushing at least into the regional final and maybe beyond. The problem is - which one?
Sweet 16 (East Region): (3) Baylor vs. (2) Arizona
We just said it's one of Sparty or Marquette to get through this round, and the other half of the East region sets up to be a mess. The top half of the South is all Bama, and the entire right side of the bracket seems somewhat chalky, with Kansas, UCLA, Texas, and Houston all having a high probability to make the Elite Eight.
That leaves the other half of the East, where Baylor and Arizona seem headed for a clash. This game is important because while you don't need to take one of them to the Final Four, they're the only teams capable of stopping Alabama. More literally, there are four bracket points up for grabs here, and that might be the difference against your competition.
Regional final (Midwest Region): (2) Texas vs. (1) Houston
With apologies to Xavier, Indiana, Miami, and any other team with big ideas, who else is making the Elite Eight out of the Midwest? At the same time, both teams might be just good enough to fall just short of winning the title.
With eight points up for grabs in your contest and a projected point spread under three points here, this is a Texas-sized game for your chances of taking home the top prize in your pool.
Final Four: Picking the loser of the national championship game
Fill in your brackets with the aforementioned matchups and work backward. That's a good start, but it's largely superfluous.
Then it's time to get down to the difference-making matchups. This last one will be who you're cheering against on the first Monday in April since the best chance to beat the others with your successful champion is to have banked all the big points from the Final Four round.
If you're taking a popular champion like Alabama, this might be your chance to take a less popular runner-up as your differentiator (e.g. Alabama over UConn).
On the other hand, if you've differentiated with an unpopular champion - UCLA (6%), Gonzaga (4%), or Duke (3%) - you've already made the tough decision and will want to take one of the top teams into the National Final (e.g. UCLA over Alabama, Duke over Kansas, etc.). This helps to guard against someone else, with your champ taking a lead into Monday night, thanks to a chalkier play on Saturday.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
