Final Four preview: Duke, UNC set for historic showdown

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Duke and North Carolina have squared off 257 times in their storied rivalry, but never in the NCAA Tournament.

The stakes couldn't be higher for their Final Four clash, with a berth in the national championship game on the line.

Can Coach K avenge last month's loss to the Tar Heels, or will the Hall of Famer's legendary career end at the hands of his longtime nemesis?

Here's how the two sides stack up ahead of Saturday's highly anticipated showdown.

Duke

How they got here

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Record: 32-6 (16-4 in ACC)
Final AP Poll ranking: 9th
NCAA Tournament seed: No. 2 in West Region

First round: Duke 78, No. 15 Cal State Fullerton 61
Second round: Duke 85, No. 7 Michigan State 76
Sweet 16: Duke 78, No. 3 Texas Tech 73
Elite Eight: Duke 78, No. 4 Arkansas 69

Key stats

PPG: 80.1 (8th)
APG: 16.6 (10th)
BPG: 5.7 (9th)
FG%: 49.4% (4th)
3PT%: 37% (34th)
Opponent free-throw attempts per game: 11.7 (2nd)

Star players

Paolo Banchero

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Duke's high-octane offense runs through Banchero's multifaceted game. He can beat defenders off the bounce, power through his man in the post, and stretch the floor. When the five-star prospect gets rolling, everything else falls into place. The attention Banchero draws creates openings for his teammates, and he has the court vision to exploit that.

Banchero's finest performance of the tourney came in the Sweet 16 when he registered 22 points, four boards, and four assists against a Texas Tech squad that's No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. If the freshman can produce those numbers versus a stingy unit, he should have the confidence to play similarly against North Carolina.

Wendell Moore

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Moore has finally found the consistency the Blue Devils sought from him when he arrived as a top-30 recruit three years ago. The 6-foot-5 forward leads the team in assists (4.4 per contest), steals (1.4), and free-throw percentage (81%). He's also Duke's second-highest scorer (13.5 points per contest) behind Banchero, recording at least 10 points in 30 of 38 appearances this season.

Moore has been effective on both ends of the floor, driving to the rim in one-on-one scenarios and using his length to disrupt opponents. His leadership has been vital as well, as he's the eldest member of the starting lineup.

Mark Williams

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Williams has been one of the NCAA's top rim-protectors all season long, and he's proving that on college basketball's biggest stage. The sophomore has posted three blocks or more in each of his four appearances in the Big Dance while altering countless more attempts at the basket with his 7-foot-7 wingspan. Williams already tied Shane Battier's team record for swats in a single NCAA Tournament with 16.

His offensive contributions deserve recognition too. Williams has averaged 14.5 points and 8.8 boards (2.5 offensive) during the school's Final Four run, with most of his production coming off lobs and putbacks. The center has been nearly unstoppable from close range, converting 78.3% of his field goals at the rim, per Hoop-Math.

X-Factor

Jeremy Roach

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It's been a roller-coaster season for Roach. He was the Blue Devils' starting point guard for 22 of the first 25 games before being relegated to the bench. However, Roach regained Mike Krzyzewski's trust during a nine-game span as a reserve, averaging 10.1 points and making 43.8% of his threes.

The Virginia native was reinserted into Duke's starting five at the beginning of the tourney and has been a bright spot, except for nine turnovers across the last two contests. The Blue Devils' championship teams have historically had solid point-guard play. Roach's decision-making needs to be better if he hopes to join that class.

Reason for concern

Duke's defense has improved in the NCAA Tournament. A second-half switch from man-to-man to zone defense keyed each of the Blue Devils' previous two victories. Both Texas Tech and Arkansas were thrown off by a scheme Duke seldom uses. It was a smart move from Coach K, especially against two schools that don't shoot the ball efficiently from deep. That same strategy won't work against North Carolina.

The Tar Heels have made a tournament-high 40 triples, with Brady Manek accounting for nearly half of that amount. The Oklahoma transfer drilled 11 threes against Duke over their two regular-season meetings. Michigan State - a top-20 3-point shooting team - made 11-of-22 attempts from deep in their Round of 32 clash versus the Blue Devils. If Duke can't contain North Carolina's shooters, Krzyzewski's squad will need to fire on all cylinders offensively to prevail.

North Carolina

How they got here

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Record: 28-9 (15-5 in ACC)
Final AP Poll ranking: Unranked
NCAA Tournament seed: No. 8 in East Region

First round: North Carolina 95, No. 9 Marquette 63
Second round: North Carolina 93, No. 1 Baylor 86 (OT)
Sweet 16: North Carolina 73, No. 4 UCLA 66
Elite Eight: North Carolina 69, No. 15 Saint Peter's 49

Key stats

PPG: 78.1 (28th)
RPG: 40.6 (6th)
APG: 15.3 (39th)
FT%: 76.5% (25th)
3PT%: 36.1% (54th)
Opponent free-throw attempts per game: 13.4 (21st)

Star players

Armando Bacot

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Bacot is coming off his most dominant performance of the Big Dance, posting 20 points, 14 boards (eight offensive), and two blocks in Sunday's win over Saint Peter's. It was his 29th double-double of the 2021-22 campaign, tying him with Tim Duncan for the most in ACC history.

Williams is undoubtedly a huge step up from the Peacocks' undersized frontcourt, but Bacot torched the Blue Devils for 23 points on 10-of-11 shooting just last month at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Saturday's result could easily hinge on whoever wins the big man battle.

Brady Manek

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Manek's inside-out game has been a problem for each of North Carolina's tournament foes. The 6-foot-9 forward is shooting almost 50% from deep, backing down opposing players in the post, and cutting to the rack. He has developed good chemistry with Bacot, constantly hitting his frontcourt partner on high-low feeds and dump-offs around the rim.

The improved 3-point shooting of R.J. Davis and Caleb Love has allowed Manek to further flex his playmaking talents. He can pass out of the post to cutting teammates and find open shooters on the perimeter.

Caleb Love

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Love can heat up in a hurry, as he did in the Sweet 16 against UCLA, scoring 27 of his career-high 30 points in the second half. It was his second 20-point performance of the tourney and 12th overall this season. The second-year guard was pulling up from distance, breaking down defenders off the bounce, and using his blazing speed in transition.

It's been quite the turnaround for Love after he barely made 30% of his field goals as a freshman. He's shooting the ball with a lot more confidence, thriving in a new system that's placed more emphasis on outside shooting.

X-Factor

Leaky Black

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There are reasons why Black rarely takes a seat on the bench, despite tallying only 15 points through four tournament games. The 6-foot-8, 200-pound guard is a reliable secondary playmaker and was an All-ACC Defensive Team selection this season.

Black is averaging nearly five dimes per game and 1.5 steals in 36.5 minutes during the Big Dance. In the Elite Eight, he locked down Saint Peter's guard Doug Edert, who entered the matchup with the highest scoring efficiency in the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina will likely task Black with keeping AJ Griffin in check. The talented freshman managed just five points in their previous meeting, with Black serving as the primary defender.

Reason for concern

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North Carolina has pretty much operated on a tight six-man rotation during its run to the Final Four. Sophomore guard Puff Johnson is the only reserve playing consistent minutes, but he hasn't provided much outside of an 11-point performance in the school's opening-round blowout win over Marquette.

The Tar Heels' lack of depth nearly allowed Baylor to complete a historic comeback. Head coach Hubert Davis was forced to call on Justin McKoy and Dontrez Styles for 35 combined minutes, with Bacot, Love, and Davis all in foul trouble. North Carolina could face a similar dilemma if Duke aggressively attacks the paint.

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