An up-and-down Saturday still netted us a positive result, and a 4-3-1 record keeps our hot streak moving.
The early-week slate is often short on important games, but we've pinpointed six key matchups for our best bets.
Arizona State @ UCLA (-15, 131)
Feb. 21, 9 p.m.
Arizona State's massive home upset of UCLA a few weeks ago was an ugly game. The contest featured a ton of missed shots and a possession count of just 83 despite spanning regulation and three overtimes.
The Sun Devils' offense is last in the Pac-12 in efficiency, offensive rebounding percentage, free-throw rate, 3-point shooting, and free-throw shooting. The team has also averaged well under one point per possession against the conference's top five defenses - a group that includes the Bruins.
UCLA's leading scorer Johnny Juzang and post presence Cody Riley both missed its win over Washington and may be limited in what should be an easy victory. Expect the Bruins to control the pace and keep this total low.
Pick: Under 129 or better
New Mexico State (-2.5, 141) @ Seattle
Feb. 21, 10 p.m.
One of Monday's best games is a battle for first place in the WAC between powerhouse New Mexico State and surprise Seattle. The Redhawks are a fun watch, especially on defense, but they struggle to score against size.
The Aggies are the biggest team in the conference and handed Seattle one of its two defeats in league play earlier in February, winning by 15. Leading scorer Teddy Allen shined in that contest and will need to score efficiently once again against a feisty Redhawks defense. Seattle is undoubtedly a good story, but preseason favorite New Mexico State should claim top spot in the conference here.
Pick: New Mexico State -3 or better
Villanova @ Connecticut (-1, 135)
Feb. 22, 8 p.m.
UConn has lost just two home games by a combined eight points this season and owns the nation's eighth-best home-court advantage, according to KenPom. The Huskies will need all the fan support they can get as they host first-place Villanova on Tuesday.
The Wildcats' struggles this season have been against big, athletic teams that don't give up easy 3-point opportunities, and UConn checks those boxes. Villanova beat the Huskies by double digits earlier in February, but it shot a season-low 11 long-distance shots and depended on Eric Dixon's 24 points - eight more than his previous career-high. If something similar unfolds on UConn's court, the Huskies are more likely to come away with a win.
Pick: Connecticut -2.5 or better
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (-10, 130)
Feb. 22, 8 p.m.
A 10-point spread seems like a lot for a Texas Tech team that lost by double-digits to this Oklahoma squad less than two weeks ago, but many factors still point that direction. The Sooners exploded for 13 threes in that victory on their highest 3-point rate of the season, but they've failed to hit more than nine long balls in any road game all year.
Should Oklahoma's 3-point luck come back down to earth, the Sooners will find life miserable on the interior against an elite Red Raiders defense ranked second nationally in efficiency by KenPom. Texas Tech has won all but one road game by double digits and should have no problem doing so in a good matchup against the Sooners.
Pick: Texas Tech -11.5 or better
Miami (FL) (-4, 138) @ Pittsburgh
Feb. 22, 8 p.m.
Miami is 6-2 in ACC play when forcing teams into a turnover rate of 22% or higher, with both losses coming by just one point. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, ranks dead last in the league by coughing up the ball on 21% of its possessions.
Should the Hurricanes force turnovers, they'll look to get their 3-point shooting going against a Panthers team that gives up almost one in every two shots from beyond the arc. As long as Miami can limit Pittsburgh's free-throw attempts, it should secure a tough road victory to remain among the conference's best teams.
Pick: Miami (FL) -5.5 or better
Cal State Bakersfield (-1, 127) @ Cal Poly
Feb. 22, 10 p.m.
Game 1 of this matchup was one of the weirdest contests you'll see all year. Cal State Bakersfield won by 13 despite allowing Cal Poly to shoot 56% from the field and make 17 free throws. That's because the Roadrunners had 53 shot attempts compared to the Mustangs' 32, thanks to a 14-0 offensive rebounding edge and a 21-11 turnover advantage.
When looking at rematches, ancillary factors like rebounding and turnovers are more likely to repeat themselves than shooting percentages. Because of that, picking Cal State Bakersfield to pull out another win is the right move here.
Pick: Cal State Bakersfield -3.5 or better
