Midwest Region betting preview: Fade favored Illinois in 'region of death'

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Congratulations to Illinois for its first No. 1 seed since 2005. The reward? Facing this year's "region of death," which is loaded with under-seeded and overachieving teams littering the Illini's path to the Final Four.

Odds to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region

Note: Rutgers' odds are not listed in New Jersey.

Should you bet the favorites?

In a word: no. That's to take nothing away from Illinois (-300), winning 14 of its last 15 games and is a legitimate title contender behind Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, who are both Wooden Award finalists and comprise arguably the best 1-2 punch in the nation.

Yet one look at the top seeds' prices should say everything you need to know about how loaded this region is. There are too many outstanding teams to buy the Illini at -300 odds, which is the shortest price of any regional favorite. Likewise, Illinois is too good to pay such short prices on Houston (+220) or West Virginia (+400).

The only one worth a sniff is Oklahoma State (+450). The No. 4 seed has looked more like a No. 2 over the last month with wins over Baylor, Texas Tech, and West Virginia (twice). Likely No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham is playing his best basketball when it counts, and he's backed by a top-25 defense ahead of what could be a deep tournament run.

Which lower seeds can make a run?

Tennessee (+1200) isn't exactly a lower seed in this region, but it's perplexingly priced like one, so it deserves a shout out here. Sure, the Vols haven't won three straight games since early January, but they also have a top-five defense and two future lottery picks in Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer. Buy, buy, buy.

As for a true Cinderella, I'm contractually obligated to highlight Loyola Chicago (+2000), which I broke down in greater detail a month ago. I hate this draw for the Ramblers, who are a top-10 team per KenPom with the No. 1 defense in the country, but I also love their upside with how well senior star Cameron Krutwig is playing as of late.

I'm intrigued by Syracuse (+7500) as well. The school should probably never see these odds to reach the Final Four after doing so as a No. 10 seed in 2016. This year's team is worse defensively but much more dangerous on offense with three players averaging at least 14.4 points, led by rising star Buddy Boeheim (17.1).

What teams should you avoid?

I'm struggling to understand why San Diego State (+600) is priced on par with the top-four seeds and ahead of Tennessee. Yes, the Aztecs are a top-20 team in adjusted defensive efficiency, but they're 1-3 in games against top-40 opponents and face a terrible matchup against a Syracuse squad that doesn't turn it over and can take advantage of SDSU's weak perimeter defense.

I'm also not buying into Oregon State (+7500) as a tournament darling, though I can't fault anyone for taking a shot at these odds. I'd still recommend saving your money - the Beavers' miracle run in the Pac-12 Tournament doesn't change the fact they lack a go-to scorer and are undisciplined defensively, which is a terrible combination for a team that plays as slow as Oregon State.

Best bet to win the Midwest Region

Tennessee +1200

Surprise, surprise! I'm all over the Volunteers at this price to reach the Final Four, and I'd even buy them to win the title at +4500. This is an elite team that struggled with shot selection down the stretch, but Rick Barnes' group has the offensive talent and defensive tenacity to match wits with Oklahoma State, Illinois, and any other challenger in this region.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.