Atlantic 10 Tournament betting preview: Can St. Bonaventure end curse of No. 1 seed?

The last time the Atlantic 10 regular-season champions won the conference tournament was 2012-13, when Saint Louis became just the third No. 1 seed to win the tourney since the conference changed its seeding format in 2005-06.

Can St. Bonaventure snap that streak this year? Or will one of the other A10 hopefuls steal a bid in the NCAA Tournament?

Odds to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament

What's at stake?

The Atlantic 10 is the best mid-major conference in the country, but it'll be lucky to get three bids in the NCAA Tournament this season. Part of that is the nature of mid-major life in 2021; the rest is the cannibalistic nature of this year's field.

The top-seeded Bonnies should get an at-large bid if they can avoid an early exit in the A10 tournament, while No. 2 seed VCU has a 70.8% chance of earning an at-large bid, per T-Rank's TourneyCast. That leaves Saint Louis (18.6%) and every other A10 hopeful in a do-or-die spot this week.

It's partly their own doing - every team has at least four conference losses, and only three schools have won more than 60% of their conference games. This tournament is volatile every season, and the parity in this year's field only magnifies that.

Who's worth betting?

I loved Saint Louis' roster entering the year, and I still have faith in the Billikens to fight their way into the tournament. Outside of a lousy effort at Dayton on Feb. 19, this team has won six of its last seven games and throttled Massachusetts on Monday in a tune up for the tournament.

That said, it's hard to stare at St. Bonaventure's odds and not want to take a shot. The Bonnies were the best team on offense and defense during conference play, per KenPom, and have arguably the best inside-out duo in the conference in Kyle Lofton (14.5 points, 5.5 assists) and Osun Osunniyi (10 points, 2.6 blocks).

VCU's tenacious defense makes it a threat to win any game, but I'm not buying the Rams' short price to win three straight contests with how unstable they are offensively. Richmond and Davidson have a shot, but they aren't on the same level as the A10's top trio and aren't worth buying at such short odds.

Can a long shot win?

When it comes to the A10 tournament, the answer is always "yes." It's an even easier case to make this year with how some of these long shots are priced.

When swinging on a long shot to win four or five straight games, I love taking a chance on competent teams with elite playmakers (2011 Connecticut, anyone?). If that team exists in this year's field, it's clearly Dayton. Senior point guard Jalen Crutcher was key to the 2019-20 team that was robbed of a potential title run, and the Flyers are 7-2 this season and 17-4 in his career when he scores at least 20 points.

If you're looking for a crazy long shot, try Saint Joseph's, which enters Wednesday's matchup against La Salle with a 4-14 record. So what's the catch? Three of those wins came in the last three games against La Salle, Dayton, and Richmond - all since senior Ryan Daly returned from a thumb injury that cost him 10 games.

Best bet

Saint Louis +245

The Billikens are the most talented team in this field, especially when forward Jordan Goodwin is playing as well as he has over the last three weeks (13.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists). Center Hasahn French has also made his presence known in the previous three games and is a potential X-factor in the tournament.

Saint Louis won this tournament a year ago and needs it more this season than either of the top two seeds. The Billikens have the talent and motivation to justify backing them at a short price.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.