NBA free agency has led to various changes in championship odds. Let's break down our winners and losers of free agency based on the odds movement at ESPN BET and theScore Bet.
Winners
Nuggets: +1700 ➡️ +850 to win the title
The Nuggets' war room should be a celebratory atmosphere after successfully surrounding Nikola Jokic with help. First, the Nuggets traded Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson, two players who share a similar profile as wing scorers and high-volume 3-point shooters. Porter Jr.'s playoff woes have hurt Denver in its last two playoff series losses, particularly this year when he averaged seven points on 25% 3-point shooting in the second round against the Thunder.
Johnson is on a significantly cheaper contract, clearing up cap room to sign other impact players. It used that extra space to bring back Bruce Brown, who won a championship with the Nuggets in 2023 and excelled alongside Jokic.
Denver signed shooter Tim Hardaway Jr., who averaged 11 points on 36% 3-point shooting for the Pistons last season. Finally, the Nuggets acquired Jonas Valanciunas, a backup center who can prevent the ship from sinking during the non-Jokic minutes.
The Nuggets addressed areas of concern by surrounding Jokic with shooters, adding depth, and trading for a reliable backup center. While the Thunder remain the favorites to win the West (+155), the Nuggets have closed the gap (+500).
Hawks: +2500 ➡️ +900 to win the East
Remember Jalen Johnson? The forward who averaged 19 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists and was on an All-Star trajectory before an injury derailed his season 36 games in. His return alone should boost the Hawks' chances in a feeble East. Trae Young, who averaged a career-high in assists last season, Dyson Daniels, the reigning Most Improved Player winner, and first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher are all returning to assemble a quality core.
In addition, Atlanta was active early in the offseason, trading for Kristaps Porzingis and signing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the perfect backcourt partner for Young as a secondary ball-handler and tenacious defender. With Porzingis' rim protection, Alexander-Walker swarming opposing guards, and the Hawks' array of wing defenders, Atlanta should have one of the NBA's best defenses after ranking in the bottom half.
With just a few moves, the Hawks catapulted ahead of the Sixers, Celtics, Pistons, Pacers, and Bucks on the oddsboard, while only trailing the Cavaliers, Knicks, and Magic.
Bucks: +7500 ➡️ +5000 to win the title, +2500 ➡️ +2000 to win the East
The Bucks' title chances improved after shockingly signing Myles Turner, but are the Bucks really winners after a questionable series of moves?
For the Bucks to create cap space to sign Turner to a four-year, $107 million deal, they had to waive Damian Lillard, their star guard who tore his Achilles in April. However, that required Milwaukee to stretch Lillard's contract, meaning it'll pay his salary over the next five years. Keeping Lillard's salary on the books while he's not playing for the Bucks creates a challenging path to build a contending roster around Giannis Antetokounmpo.
While Turner is an upgrade over Brook Lopez and will pair well with Antetokounmpo as a stretch-big who can protect the rim, this is a short-term play. The Bucks' long-term outlook looks bleak with little room for flexibility, no budding young stars, and scarce draft capital.
The Bucks likely thought this would entice Antetokounmpo to remain a Buck, as he's still mulling his future with the franchise. But if it has the opposite effect, Milwaukee will look more like losers than winners.
Rockets: +1800 ➡️ +850 to win the title
Houston's offseason took off before free agency commenced. On the same day of Game 7 of the Finals, the Suns traded Kevin Durant to the Rockets, whose odds immediately shortened from +1800 to +850 to win the title.
Their offseason didn't stop there. When free agency opened, the Rockets signed 3-and-D forward Dorian Finney-Smith, who shot 41% from three last season. Then, Houston signed Clint Capela to join a monstrous frontcourt already featuring Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams. Houston is committed to size, as Ime Udoka consistently utilized two-big lineups that grabbed offensive rebounds and created extra possessions at an ungodly rate.
The Rockets are now tied for the second-best odds to win the West (+500), and third-best for the title (+850), soaring to the top tier alongside the Thunder and Nuggets.
Losers
Celtics: +1800 ➡️ +2800 to win the title
The Celtics are stripped to bare bones and will essentially punt on next season while Jayson Tatum rehabs an Achilles injury. While Jaylen Brown and Derrick White remain in Boston, Tatum's injury and the Celtics' exorbitant payroll forced Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet out the door.
Without Tatum, the Celtics have no chance at a championship, especially as the rest of the East takes advantage of Boston's misfortune by going all-in. The Celtics still have the sixth-best odds to win the East, just ahead of the Pistons, Bucks, and Pacers. Even that feels like giving Boston too much credit.
When Tatum returns for the 2026-27 season, the Celtics will be well-positioned to build around one of the league's best trios featuring Tatum, Brown, and White. Until then, Boston has been knocked out of the contenders' circle.
Pacers: +1500 ➡️ +2500 to win the East
A future documentary should chronicle the Pacers' 10 days of hell since Game 7 of the NBA Finals. How does a franchise go from 48 minutes away from its first NBA championship to the ninth-best odds to win its conference the following season?
The misery began when Tyrese Haliburton tore his Achilles in the opening quarter of Game 7, effectively ending the Pacers' improbable and inspiring finals run. Haliburton will miss all of next season and doesn't have a chance without its best player and point guard, who dictates its pace and style.
The Pacers then lost Turner in free agency to their bitter rival. Turner spent all 10 of his seasons in Indiana and was a huge part of its playoff run. Now, Indiana is left without a center, creating an even murkier path to a title this season and beyond, as few starting centers remain on the market. Without two of their starters, the Pacers are on the Celtics' gap year plan. No organization has had a more miserable 10 days than Indiana.
Lakers: +800 ➡️ +850 to win the West
JJ Redick had such little trust in his bench that he went the entire second half of a playoff game without a single substitution for the first time in NBA history. Surely Rob Pelinka and the Lakers' front office went out and added meaningful pieces, right? Well, no.
Instead, Finney-Smith, one of the five players Redick trusted, departed for the Rockets. The Lakers replaced him with Jake LaRavia, who should contribute but is a downgrade from Finney-Smith.
The Lakers also desperately needed a center to pair with Luka Doncic. Deandre Ayton was one of the few remaining options after the center market dried up, but his attitude and effort concerns were the reason he was available. While talented, his presence could do more harm than good.
The Lakers have limited cap space after LeBron James picked up his $52.6 million player option. L.A. hasn't improved this offseason while other West contenders have. It sits behind the Thunder, Nuggets, Rockets, Timberwolves, and Clippers on the oddsboard.
Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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