We've already previewed the East and West first-round series. With the playoffs tipping off Saturday, let's evaluate seven players who will make or break their team's chances in the first round and whether we're backing or fading them.
Rockets: Jalen Green
Experience could hold the Rockets back this postseason after a surprisingly impressive regular season. Most of the their top contributors, including Jalen Green, have zero playoff experience.
The Rockets are without a reliable closer and won't have the best player in any series. Houston also had the fifth-worst clutch offense among playoff teams and a negative net rating. Green can catch fire for stretches, but he's wildly inefficient, shooting 42% from the field with a 54.4% true shooting percentage - 13th-worst among players who average at least 30 minutes per game.
When the Rockets need someone to score late, Green is the obvious choice as an athletic guard who can create for himself. But he shot an abysmal 37% in the clutch during the regular season.
As coverages hone in on Green, I expect him to struggle in his first taste of the postseason. His series-long points per game prop is 22, a surprising number considering he averaged fewer than that in the regular season and playoff stats are typically worse.
Verdict: Bail on Green
Warriors: Steph Curry
Steph Curry is the greatest shooter ever, but the Rockets have minimized his impact this season in a way no other club has. Curry failed to score 20 points in two of his three games against Houston and shot 36% across those three contests. He scored three points on 1-for-10 shooting in the most recent matchup.
The Rockets' array of defenders face guarding Curry along with their off-ball physicality disturbed the Warriors' point guard. Houston blitzed his ball screens, forcing the ball out of his hands. Although his gravity created opportunities for his teammates in those situations, the Warriors need Curry to be Curry to defeat the Rockets.
Amen Thompson will start on Curry, but Houston has multiple strong, athletic defenders to throw his way. The officiating will impact this series, specifically how much physicality the Rockets get away with.
Few teams possess the defensive personnel to guard Curry like the Rockets. Still, the Warriors will find ways to create easier looks for him and dismantle the Rockets' defensive strategy. It's almost impossible to imagine one of the generation's greatest players becoming inconsequential.
His series-long points per game prop is 25.5 because the Rockets successfully limited his scoring output previously. However, Curry averaged at least 26 points in five of his last six playoff series and holds a career average of 27 points per game over 147 playoff games. Let's bank on that experience.
Verdict: Bet on Curry
Lakers: Austin Reaves
Austin Reaves is the NBA's best third option, but it certainly helps that he plays alongside future Hall of Famers LeBron James and Luka Doncic, who command as much defensive attention as anyone in the league.
Lakers head coach JJ Redick constantly runs actions to provide Reaves with open looks, exhibiting his trust in the budding star. Reaves can easily exploit mismatches when the two best defenders typically guard Doncic or James.
Reaves averaged career highs of 20.2 points and 14.2 field goal attempts this season. His series-long prop is 19.5, which he should soar past as the Wolves' primarily focus on the Lakers' two superstars.
Verdict: Bet on Reaves
Timberwolves: Julius Randle
It's been a rocky ride throughout Julius Randle's first season in Minnesota. After stumbling out of the gates, the Timberwolves (and Randle) finished the season strong, winning 16 of their final 20 games.
Anthony Edwards led the NBA in clutch points, and it's no secret the Wolves' offense goes through him. However, the Lakers' game plan will include blitzing his ball screens and often sending a second defender his way. That places added responsibility on Minnesota's others, including Randle, the Wolves' second-leading scorer, who's sometimes been a questionable fit alongside Edwards.
Randle thrives on driving to the rim and backing down defenders with his patented bully-ball approach, but he's an inconsistent 3-point shooter, drilling just 34% of his looks this season. He must hit threes at a higher rate to stretch out Los Angeles' defense.
The 11-year vet has notoriously struggled in his 15 career playoff games. He's averaged 17.1 points on 34% shooting in the playoffs. To be fair, he was the Knicks' primary option in his first playoff stint and dealt with an injury in his second. Will he turn his playoff troubles around in his third appearance with a new team? There's good reason to believe Randle's offensive style isn't meant for the playoffs. His series-long points per game prop is 18.5.
Verdict: Bail on Randle
Nuggets: Jamal Murray
Nikola Jokic can't do it all himself. Although Ivica Zubac can contain Jokic better than most, the world's best player will still dominate. Jokic's series-long points per game prop is 28, which he's exceeded in four of his last five playoff series.
Jamal Murray is the Nuggets' only other reliable scorer and creator, but he hasn't always functioned as such over the last two seasons. Murray was a primary reason for Denver's postseason run being cut short last year. He also started this campaign slowly before increasing his production in February and March. However, injuries are a huge part of Murray's story. He missed a stretch in April with a hamstring injury before returning for the final two regular-season games.
Despite the talent, it's hard to find reasons to trust Murray's health or playoff performance, especially against the Clippers' third-best defense with sturdy perimeter defenders. Murray's series-long points per game prop is 19, which he failed to reach in last year's second-round series loss to Minnesota.
Verdict: Bail on Murray
Knicks: Karl-Anthony Towns
Karl-Anthony Towns' playoff transgressions are well documented. However, he improved during last year's postseason run with the Wolves, including cutting down his boneheaded fouling that cost Minnesota in previous seasons. The Pistons should be incredibly physical with Towns, and the Knicks can't afford to have him in foul trouble with their minimal depth.
Towns has been as advertised in New York as an offensive juggernaut who creates an unstoppable pick-and-roll duo with Jalen Brunson. Both guys are vulnerable defending ball screens but make up for it offensively.
Brunson's series-long points prop is 27.5, which he's exceeded in his last three playoff series. While that's also worth a look, the Pistons don't have the personnel to stop Towns, whose series-long points prop is 22.5. He's never met that mark in a postseason series; he's averaged 18.8 points in 32 playoff games. Yet, Towns averaged 24.4 points per game this season and should consistently have matchup advantages against Detroit.
Verdict: Bet on Towns
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton
Damian Lillard's return date will ultimately decide the series, but the Pacers need Tyrese Haliburton, who re-emerged as an All-Star in the second half of the season, to flourish regardless of who's on the floor.
The Pacers escaped the Bucks, who were without Giannis Antetokounmpo, during the first round last year despite Haliburton struggling. He averaged 16 points on 43% shooting from the field and 29% from three. His points per game prop in this year's matchup is 18.5.
The Bucks have various defenders, including Bobby Portis and Kevin Porter Jr., to throw at Haliburton and bother him with their physicality. If he struggles again, the Pacers will go home earlier than last postseason.
Verdict: Bail on Haliburton
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
