When Draymond Green is involved in an NBA award race, he campaigns like a presidential candidate two weeks out from the election.
Victor Wembanyama was the overwhelming favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year at -2000 until a blood clot ended his season. He won't play enough games to be eligible for the honor, and new candidates are now making their case and trying to win over voters in a limited period of time.
Evan Mobley immediately emerged as the new favorite, with Jaren Jackson Jr., Dyson Daniels, and Lu Dort trailing close behind. When Wembanyama was ruled out Feb. 20, Green wasn't even on the oddsboard. He was first included six days later as a mega long shot at +10000.
But since then, he's steadily risen in a tight race that won't be close to a unanimous decision. His climb has coincided with the resurgence of the Warriors, who boast the league's best defense since the All-Star break.
The most significant leap came March 18 after the Warriors defeated the Bucks. Green shut down MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak had his worst shooting game in two seasons and shot 0-for-7 on field goals contested by Green, who emphatically stated his case for Defensive Player of the Year following the win.
"I look around the league and don't see many players impacting the game on the defensive end the way I do. I don't see many players completely throwing off an entire team's offense the way I do," Green said. "Especially with Wemby going down, seemed like he had it won. And now it is right there."
Over the next 24 hours, Green's odds moved from +1000 to +450. In the last week, Green surpassed Mobley as the favorite at -120 on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. Mobley is +110, Daniels is +1600, and Dort, who I previously advocated for, is +2000. Jackson is +4000.
During Green's soliloquy, he claimed stats "don't always tell the story." But they do to some extent - just not the typical counting stats like blocks and steals that fans associate with great defense.
The four-time champion isn't in the top 20 in blocks or the top 10 in steals, but he does rank in the top 20 in defensive net points, and Golden State allows fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor than off. He's undoubtedly the most impactful defender on the NBA's best defense over the last month-and-a-half.
Mobley, meanwhile, is the best defender for the Cavaliers, who own the eighth-best defense (the Warriors have the seventh-best defense since the start of the season). His metrics - defensive rating, defensive net points, and on/off splits - are better than Green's, as are his counting stats, including blocks.
Of course, Defensive Player of the Year is, as Green suggested, also about perception to some degree.
Green's impassioned plea noted that he covers for everyone defensively, and he has a valid point. He's capable of switching onto guards and bigs, has the strength and instincts to guard post players, and the quick feet and strong hands to chase perimeter-oriented players. He's also as cerebral as any defender in the NBA, constantly in the right help spots and breaking up actions he anticipates.
There is, however, a potential problem for Green. The 65-game requirement that disqualified Wembanyama could also prevent Green from winning the award. The 2017 Defensive Player of the Year has played 57 games, and there are only 10 games remaining. He can't miss more than two games the rest of the season. He also must play at least 20 minutes in those games. Any game in which a player plays under 15 minutes doesn't count, and each player gets two games in which they can play between 15 and 20 minutes, which Green has already used.
But there's good reason to believe he'll hit the 65-game requirement. The Warriors won't rest Green because they're in a tight race to avoid the play-in, and he clearly wants a second award on his mantel.
And as he continues to get closer to the mark, expect him to construct his case as much off the court as he does on the floor.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
