The Wild Wild West is becoming the Wild Wild East in the NBA. Although the Celtics are comfortably in first place, a mere two games separate the Nos. 2-5 spots.
As each team races for home court in a first-round series and tries to avoid a potential second-round meeting with Boston, major changes - related to either injuries or coaching - will impact their standing in a crowded Eastern Conference.
In this edition of Bet or Bail, we break down two teams in the hunt and another one that's fighting to make a cameo in the playoff picture.
Bet on the Nets with Ben Simmons (when he plays)
For all of Ben Simmons' flaws - availability is at the top of a long list - he brings a new element to the Nets, who have some work to do as an 11-seed sitting one game out of the play-in tournament. Brooklyn is +600 (14% implied probability) to make the playoffs.
Simmons returned to the lineup Monday after an almost three-month absence due to a nerve issue in his back. He played 18 minutes and nearly recorded a triple-double with 10 points, 11 assists, and eight boards. He finished the game a plus-27 in a 33-point win over the Jazz.
In true Simmons fashion, he injured his knee at the end of the game, forcing him to miss Wednesday's meeting against the Suns. It's reportedly not serious and he should return soon, perhaps even Saturday against the Sixers. Simmons looked comfortable and moved well in his brief yet impactful time on the floor.
While the Nets score the 10th-fewest transition points and have the third-lowest transition scoring frequency, most of Simmons' possessions come in transition. He thrives in the open court as a freight train attacking defenders who scurry out of his way. He's rarely looking to score as he pushes it up the floor, but he does find his open teammates.
Brooklyn already attempts the sixth-most threes in the NBA, and Simmons' re-emergence can reinvigorate the Nets' transition game, creating quality above-the-break shots. Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Cam Thomas - all considered pure scorers - can play off the ball more and spot up more frequently.
This is what the Nets look like when Simmons grabs the board and leads the break:
In seven games with Simmons, Bridges averages 23.9 points on 51% shooting from the field, slightly higher than his typical 21.9 points on a less efficient 45% field-goal percentage. Simmons gives Bridges a pass-first point guard who creates better looks for him.
Without Simmons on the floor, this is how leisurely the Nets appear after a miss:
The Nets play at the league's eighth-slowest pace. Simmons can only be effective in an offense that plays fast; his half-court offense as a non-shooter and scared scorer is essentially nonexistent. When Simmons is on the floor, the Nets need to pick up the tempo, with Simmons dishing to his streaking teammates.
Nets games go under the total as often as over, but that could change if they speed things up. The Nets have gone over in five of the seven games Simmons has played this season.
Simmons' problem is that NBA fans are more used to seeing him in his flashy off-court outfits than in a jersey: He's missed roughly 70% of games since Philadelphia traded him to the Nets in 2021.
The former No. 1 overall pick will never return to his All-Star form or even attempt to expand his offensive repertoire. And he won't single-handedly turn things around for the Nets - who will likely be sellers at the trade deadline.
When he actually suits up, however, he can provide a jolt for an often offensively lifeless Nets team that went 4-10 in January.
Can the Knicks stay afloat without Randle?
The Knicks have won 14 of their last 16 and sit third in the East. Jalen Brunson's emergence as an All-NBA caliber talent and the best player on a top team has changed the discourse around the Knicks.
The question isn't whether Brunson can lead the Knicks to a championship; it's who can the Knicks put around Brunson to help him lead a starving city to basketball immortality.
As the Knicks' brass tries to answer that question, Julius Randle injured his shoulder this weekend. He's expected to return in weeks, not months. In the short term, the Knicks have to replace Randle's 24 points, nine boards, and five assists per game to stay in the hunt to host a playoff series.
It's not necessarily realistic to expect Brunson to elevate his game even further. He's already carrying a massive offensive load and has scored at least 30 points in nine of the last 13 games.
Randle's most frequent play type is spot-up looks. He's in isolation situations much less frequently than last year. Brunson's Villanova compadres, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart, will take on more responsibility in Randle's absence, and they both thrive in spot-up situations.
DiVincenzo's averaging 30.5 points on 15 3-point attempts per game in the two games since Randle's injury. He's shooting 42% from distance, one of the league's best marks. Hart, meanwhile, recorded his first career triple-double in the Knicks' Tuesday win over the Jazz.
DiVincenzo went over his points prop the last two games without Randle and Hart went over his assists and rebounds prop the last three.
OG Anunoby's been out the last two contests but is expected back soon. His defensive versatility helped make the Knicks the NBA's best defense in January. They've gone under the total in 86% of their games since Anunoby's arrival.
Anunoby's role in reviving New York's defense catapulted him up the oddsboard for Defensive Player of the Year. He started the season at +2000, jumped as high as +4000 before he was traded, and now has the second-best odds at +700.
Anunoby, Hart, Brunson, and even Quentin Grimes need to score more in Randle's absence as the team enters a tough but crucial stretch.
Ten of the Knicks' last 14 wins came against teams under .500, although they do deserve credit for walloping the Sixers and Nuggets. Eight of New York's 12 February games are against teams that are .500 or better. The schedule, plus Randle's unavailability, will lead to more losses than Knicks fans have become used to, but we'll find out if they can keep the 3-seed.
Bail on Doc Rivers in Milwaukee
Firing Adrian Griffin was the right move for the Bucks. However, bringing in Doc Rivers doesn't change their season outlook for two reasons - one that has nothing to do with Rivers and one that has everything to do with him.
The Bucks' personnel is a bigger concern than their coaching. Their newly lackluster defense is well-documented, as they have the NBA's 12th-worst defensive rating after ranking fourth in 2022-23. Some of that is a result of schematic decisions, like taking Brook Lopez away from the basket and abandoning the drop principles that helped make him a Defensive Player of the Year candidate last season. But Milwaukee also lacks something that's key to any strong defense: perimeter resistance. Swapping Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard added prolific scoring at the expense of the other end of the floor. Why is anyone surprised by this drop-off?
Replacing Holiday with Lillard and Malik Beasley has led to a weak point-of-attack defense, and Milwaukee has the NBA's fourth-highest over rate, hovering just below 60%. Rivers can't change that reality.
As for Rivers, most coaches are constantly being asked, "What have you done for me lately?" But Rivers gets to answer a different question: "What did you do more than a decade ago?"
Rivers is respected around the league and has won a lot of games, plus the 2008 title he captured as Celtics head coach. He gets opportunities to helm star-laden teams because of his perceived ability to relate to stars. However, his teams consistently underperform in the postseason. He's posted a record 10 Game 7 losses, as well as nine straight losses in series-clinching second-round games - and don't forget all the blown 3-1 series leads. Context is essential when evaluating playoff flameouts, but Rivers' teams flame out a lot.
The Bucks are the 2-seed. They had the easiest schedule before Rivers arrived and have the hardest remaining one - they already lost to the Nuggets and Trailblazers in Rivers' first two games. The former Sixers coach's regular-season success and experience - he's top-10 all time in wins - made him a good candidate to take over midseason. But now the Bucks are tied to Rivers for the foreseeable future.
The Bucks still have the second-best odds to win the East (+250) and the third-best to win the championship (+450) - those didn't shift after the Rivers announcement. But remember this come playoff time: Rivers has the worst record against the spread in NBA history in Games 5-7, according to Action Network.
Combining this defensively ill-equipped Bucks roster with a coach who keeps falling short despite having Hall of Famers at his disposal isn't a recipe for a championship.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
