Though his team had the NBA's second-best record and second-most efficient offense in his debut season behind the bench, Adrian Griffin's head coaching tenure with the Milwaukee Bucks is over. And perhaps the most surprising thing about him being dismissed after just 43 games is how unsurprising it actually felt.
The Bucks are on a 57-win pace - identical to their win percentage during Mike Budenholzer's five-year stint - but they haven't looked especially convincing in compiling this season's record.
They have the league's 22nd-ranked defense (after finishing no lower than 14th and ranking sixth on average under Budenholzer) and a point differential that's reflective of a 49-win team, against one of the league's softest schedules to date. They've been carried by Giannis Antetokounmpo's sheer indomitability and buoyed by a ridiculous 18-6 record in clutch games. And while Damian Lillard's presence makes that late-and-close magic feel more sustainable than it otherwise might, it's still a precarious thing to rely on.
The team itself clearly recognized this. If you're shocked that a 30-13 squad fired its coach, ask yourself how many 30-13 teams have featured as many public displays of distrust and frustration with the way things are being run than we've seen out of Milwaukee this year.
Red flags started popping up before the season even started when lead assistant Terry Stotts walked off the job following a confrontation with Griffin. Just four games in, players were openly grousing about a new defensive system that pulled their all-world rim protectors away from the basket and willingly put the team in rotation. Griffin responded to the feedback by reverting to a drop-oriented base scheme, but that was far from a panacea.
After a few weeks of league-average performance, the team again cratered defensively. Antetokounmpo, who reportedly pushed for Griffin to get the job over other candidates like Nick Nurse and Kenny Atkinson, continued to question the team's defensive approach, wondering aloud what kind of identity it was trying to cultivate.
Just three weeks after Griffin offered his schematic mea culpa, Antetokounmpo took exception to being yanked in the fourth quarter of a close game against Boston, and the two got into a spat on the sidelines. Two weeks after that, Bobby Portis reportedly challenged Griffin in the locker room after the Pacers eliminated the Bucks from the In-Season Tournament. During Monday's uncomfortably narrow victory over the Pistons, Antetokounmpo was diagramming plays on the bench.
While the players ultimately deserve the bulk of the blame, especially for their lethargy and disorganization in transition, it was evident that confusion persisted over what the Bucks' defensive aims were. Budenholzer always took heat for the rigidity of his defensive principles, but there was never any doubt about the team's clarity of purpose. Instilling that sense of structure and stability should be the first order of business for Griffin's replacement, Doc Rivers.
Even at the offensive end, where the Bucks' numbers look so impressive, the process has often been anything but. Their half-court actions rely more on blunt instruments than creative craftsmanship, and the hammer-and-nail two-man game between Lillard and Antetokounmpo still hasn't been mined for its full value. While that hasn't precluded regular-season success, the playoffs demand a different level of proactive problem-solving. That's probably the biggest reason Budenholzer got fired. If there's a concern about Rivers as the front office's solution, it's that problem-solving has never really been his forte, either.
The easiest comparison to make is to the 2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers, who were 30-11 and sitting atop the Eastern Conference when they fired David Blatt. (The one big difference is that Blatt was at least given a full season to try to prove he was the right fit for a LeBron James-led team.) This move may not pan out as well as that one did - that Tyronn Lue guy turned out to be pretty good - but in this respect the parallels are clear: Sometimes you can tell when things aren't working, or when someone's out of their depth, no matter what the win-loss totals say.
There's no way to know right now whether the Bucks would've been better off keeping Griffin for the rest of the season than they'll be with Rivers, but we can say that their record has masked some structural and tactical issues that looked likely to undercut their championship pursuit come playoff time.
Maybe Griffin would've figured things out eventually. Under different circumstances, you'd certainly say he deserved more time. But just like those Cavs, these Bucks couldn't afford to be patient. They've traded virtually every available draft asset to win now, and the team around Antetokounmpo is aging. Khris Middleton is slowing down at 32, Lillard's 33, and Brook Lopez turns 36 in a couple of months. Asking a new coach to right the ship with less than half the season remaining is a tall order, but it probably makes more sense than risking a squandered season during this precious (and narrowing) window with a coach they didn't believe in.
Having said all that, there's plenty of reason to believe that Milwaukee's issues are primarily personnel-driven and therefore won't be fixable. A team starting Lillard and Malik Beasley will struggle to defend the perimeter no matter the scheme. Leaning into drop coverage with Lopez makes sense, but the Bucks still suffer from a lack of rear-view pressure from their guards and are still prone to blow-bys at the point of attack. It doesn't help that Middleton can no longer provide much resistance on the wing, or that even Antetokounmpo has shown signs of decline as a backline helper. Lopez remains an elite rim protector, but he can only cover for so much.
The Bucks rank 12th in defensive rebound rate after ranking no lower than third in any season under Budenholzer. That's partly because of Griffin's dalliance with more aggressive coverages, but mainly because the team is allowing more penetration, which forces more rotations and shot contests on the back line. Milwaukee also ranks dead last in opponent transition frequency allowed, after ranking 28th in that category last year. Is that going to suddenly change? Rivers has earned a reputation as a great motivator, but these problems feel more closely tied to physical constraints than intentional ones.
A trade or a starting lineup adjustment could help. Unfortunately, Milwaukee doesn't have the assets to get a real difference-maker, and even outbidding teams for someone like Dennis Smith Jr. or Jevon Carter might be tough. Internally, neither MarJon Beauchamp nor Andre Jackson Jr. looks ready to patch this glaring hole on their own, though Rivers would be wise to give them a longer look than Griffin did.
All told, it made sense for Milwaukee to rip the Band-Aid off and part ways with Griffin now. Rivers is an imperfect replacement who can be an upgrade nonetheless. At the end of the day, though, it's the players who will ultimately determine whether this team can become the championship contender we all expected to see this season.
