The Pacers made a franchise-altering move when they acquired Pascal Siakam from the Raptors on Wednesday. In exchange, the Raptors received Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, Kira Lewis, and three first-round picks.
Indiana gave up a significant haul to pair Tyrese Haliburton with a co-star in Siakam, who is expected to sign a long-term extension and avoid free agency this summer. The odds indicate the trade improved the Pacers' chances.
Pacers' title odds movement
| NBA Finals | Eastern Conference | Central Division |
|---|---|---|
| Before trade: +7500 | Before trade: +5000 | Before trade: +1500 |
| After trade: +6000 | After trade: +2500 | After trade: +900 |
While the Pacers' odds marginally shortened, they didn't surpass anyone in their conference.
Although Siakam doesn't change the Pacers' outlook too much, he's undoubtedly a perfect fit for Rick Carlisle's system and playing alongside Haliburton.
With Haliburton in the lineup, the Pacers have a historically great offensive rating. Their fast-paced, free-flowing offensive style led by Haliburton's brilliant vision creates a plethora of transition opportunities and open shots.
That suits Siakam to a T, as he's top 11 in the NBA in transition points and leads the league in transition field-goal percentage among qualifying players. The Pacers lead the Association in transition points, and Haliburton leads in transition assists. Siakam will fit right in.
The Raptors were third in transition points - largely due to Siakam - but their pace was around league average. Indiana plays with the second-fastest pace.
The first and second sequences should look familiar to Raptors and Pacers fans, respectively. Like Obi Toppin in the first video, Siakam, in the second, starts leaking out right after his closeout, which allows him to catch the ball on the run for an easy transition dunk. Many of the transition looks Toppin received will now go to Siakam.
The Cameroon native's scoring is slightly down this season. He only went over on his points prop in roughly half of his games in January. It's reasonable to expect that to increase with more transition opportunities and easier looks in an offense with various threats.
Siakam is also an underrated passer. As teams trap Haliburton in the pick-and-roll in meaningful games - like the Lakers did in the NBA Cup championship - Siakam will be a perfect safety outlet, where he can drive and/or kick with a numbers advantage.
Siakam's averaging less than five assists this year, his lowest mark in three years. His assist totals could increase with Indiana.
The Raptors rarely deployed Siakam as the pick-and-roll screener - just 2.8% of his possessions, according to Synergy - which makes sense because he's more of a wing than a big man. However, the Pacers may try to utilize Siakam in that role given Haliburton's elite pick-and-roll playmaking.
Myles Turner is the primary screener. As a stretch big, Turner pops to the 3-point line on 38.7% of his screens, according to Synergy. He's shooting 33% from three, but 46% on pick-and-pop threes. Siakam's shooting 32% from three, so he can easily replace Turner in that role.
Here's what Turner's pick-and-pop threes look like with Haliburton:
And here's what it could look like with Siakam:
Siakam and Turner are a good fit, with Turner being a big man who can space the floor. Siakam can also be a floor-spacer in the pick-and-roll combination between Turner and Haliburton. Turner's stretching ability should allow Siakam plenty of space to operate on the wing.
The Pacers' Achilles heel has been their defense, the league's fourth worst. They have the third-highest over rate with 62% of their games going past the total. Siakam won't change the defense drastically because their problems start on the perimeter where the guards allow opposing players to snake into the lane with ease.
But Siakam's long, agile build allows him to protect the rim and guard in space. The 6-foot-8 forward's versatility lets him switch onto various positions, which should lead to improved team defense.
Pacers games won't start going under the total at a high rate, mostly because their offense is still elite, but it's something to watch moving forward.
Jalen Smith, who averages 17 minutes and 10 points per game, will get fewer minutes and could even fall out of the rotation completely. Toppin's having a career-best season and has started in 28 of the Pacers' 40 contests. However, his role will also be reduced with Siakam's introduction. Toppin serves many of the same roles as a transition threat and floor-spacer, but he isn't close to the creator, playmaker, or defender Siakam is.
Granted, this potentially exciting fit will have to wait. Haliburton is expected to return soon but is still out with a hamstring injury. Siakam sat out Thursday and his status for Friday night against the Trail Blazers is currently unknown.
On the Raptors' side of this trade, Masai Ujiri finally cashed in on Siakam and OG Anunoby - both of whom are in the last year of their contracts - as the club continues its rebuild with young talent.
Siakam had the Raptors' highest usage rate. Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley - three players the club hopes are part of their future - will be forced to take on larger offensive loads. Increased scoring responsibilities should lead to higher point totals.
We won't know who "won" the trade for a while, but the reverberations from the deal will be felt immediately on both sides.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
