In a recent interview, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said he wished the NBA's media coverage focused more on the x's and o's and the actual basketball taking place on the court.
Then the league suspended Draymond Green indefinitely for perpetual fighting issues, and Giannis Antetokounmpo confronted the Pacers when they took the game ball after his historic performance. The NBA is a reality TV show as much as it is a basketball league. Unfortunately - or fortunately - for Silver, this draws interest as much as the game's nuances.
In this column, though, we'll adhere to Silver's request and focus on the on-court action. This week's edition of "Bet or Bail" highlights strictly positive trends, including Brandon Ingram's mid-range efficiency, Anfernee Simons' rise, and why there's a glimmer of hope for the Grizzlies.
Bet on Ingram keeping the mid-range alive
While NBA critics torch Zion Williamson for being out of shape and unprofessional, let's focus on an optimistic trend out of New Orleans: Ingram keeping the mid-range game alive. Williamson gets the attention for good and bad performances and needs to consistently perform at a high level for the Pelicans to be a threat in the West. However, he doesn't need to be their best player. That's because Ingram is.
He's become one of the NBA's most underrated players and is leading a 14-11 team with -125 odds to make the playoffs, a 55% implied probability.
Ingram's one of 10 players averaging at least 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists. How he's scoring is even more impressive. Ingram scores 25.8% of his points from the mid-range, third in the NBA.
As 2-point jumpers wane due to greater league-wide emphasis on 3-pointers and shots at the rim, elite scorers can still get to their spots for pull-up twos as an effective weapon.
The best three-level scorers still utilize a nasty mid-range game to score, and they have the ultimate green light to do so, even if advanced efficiency metrics favor a three over a pull-up two.
Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, and other incredible wing scorers still rely on the middle ball to reach their spots and elevate over inferior defenders.
Ingram's skinny frame doesn't detract from his fundamentally sound footwork and silky-smooth jumper. Watch how he spins off his defender to create space and elevate for a Kobe-esque baseline fadeaway:
Most of Ingram's 2-point opportunities come in the pick-and-roll, where he hunts switches to take advantage of slow-footed bigs.
Ingram's struggling with his three right now, connecting on just 29% of his attempts, but more of his field-goal attempts are threes this year than the last two seasons, so it's not as if he's relying too much on the mid-range. He's a career 36% 3-point shooter, meaning his numbers should pick up.
If Ingram's three-ball becomes elite, his game will progress to an All-NBA level. He's always been reluctant to shoot too many threes, similar to how DeMar DeRozan was when his prime overlapped with the 3-point revolution. DeRozan's only shot over three 3-pointers per game once in his career. He ranks fourth in percentage of points that come from the mid-range this season.
DeRozan is 34, though, and closer to retirement than his prime. Ingram is just 26. He dominates the mid-range in a way few players can, and his efficiency there helps the Pelicans. However, despite an effective and unstoppable jumper, he can't ignore the value of the 3-pointer.
The eighth-year star is +5000 to win Clutch Player of the Year, an award created last season.
Ingram's the key to unlocking a playoff berth for the Pelicans this season - and it'll be his mid-range prowess that gets them there.
Bet on the Grizzlies
It's hard to believe I'm endorsing the dumpster fire that's been the Grizzlies over the last calendar year, but if there was ever a time to buy stock in a group coming off back-to-back 50-win seasons, now's the time.
Ja Morant returns from a 25-game suspension next Thursday. His maturity and leadership are still massive question marks as Memphis determines the risk of making Morant the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future. But his impact on winning and place among the league's best point guards can't be questioned.
His return also coincides with Marcus Smart's timetable. Smart injured his foot in mid-November and was expected to be out for three-to-five weeks. If that estimate remains accurate, he should return next week.
Desmond Bane is having a career year, which was expected as he took on elevated scoring responsibilities in Morant's absence. Bane's had success playing point guard out of necessity, but he should still flourish in an off-ball role alongside Morant.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has suffered the most without his dynamic point guard even though his scoring average is slightly up because of increased minutes and shot attempts. The Grizzlies' pick-and-roll game has suffered drastically without Morant, which is hurting Jackson, who primarily served as the screener in those actions.
Memphis ranked in the top 10 in pick-and-roll frequency last season. It's in the bottom 10 this season and scoring .08 fewer points per possession.
As the roll man, Jackson scored 1.22 points per possession last season, which ranked in the 71st percentile, according to Synergy Sports. He's scoring .87 points per possession this season - in the 20th percentile and well below average.
Memphis had the 11th-best offense last season. It has the third-worst now. While it's also dealing with extended frontcourt absences from Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Morant's impact is as significant of a factor as those numbers indicate.
It's an uphill climb for the Grizzlies to make the playoffs after consecutive years as the 2-seed. They're +1100 to make the postseason and -3000 to miss it. But there's some value there. The Grizzlies are +5000 to win the Southwest Division that the Mavs (-135) currently lead.
The Grizzlies are 6-17 and six games out of a play-in spot. The West is crowded, but if Morant stays out of trouble and returns to form, Memphis could go on a run for a play-in spot.
Bet on Simons' future
When the Damian Lillard-Blazers partnership approached its inevitable end this past summer, Portland banked on its young guards improving and one of them hopefully becoming the next Lillard.
The team had a wealth of options. It had just acquired Malcolm Brogdon, drafted Scoot Henderson, and witnessed swift improvement from Shaedon Sharpe. But Simons was the name to watch.
While he's in his fifth season, Simons has improved drastically every year with increased opportunity. Lillard praised Simons following the trade for what the 24-year-old could become in this league.
Simons has only played in four games this season after an opening night injury knocked him out for weeks. In his brief time this season, he's embraced his role as the best offensive weapon on the team.
He's averaging 28 points and five assists on 42% shooting from three. That production level will likely dip, but it's notable how impactful he's been as the team's star.
Simons' year-to-year stats
| Season | Minutes | Points | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18-19 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 0.7 |
| 19-20 | 20.7 | 8.3 | 1.4 |
| 20-21 | 17.3 | 7.8 | 1.4 |
| 21-22 | 29.5 | 17.3 | 3.9 |
| 22-23 | 35.5 | 21.1 | 4.1 |
| 23-23 (4 games) | 34.5 | 28.5 | 5 |
He's gone over his betting point total in the last three games since returning on Dec. 6. Simons had the fifth-best odds to win Most Improved Player before the season at +1500. His injury knocked him off the oddsboard, but he should slowly start to climb back near the top, though it'll be challenging to overtake Tyrese Maxey, Scottie Barnes, Alperen Sengun, and others.
Simons is an excellent shot-creator and efficient coming off ball screens. He's also shooting 66% in spot-up situations this season. He still has a way to go before being considered an elite and creative finisher around the rim.
Portland is 6-16 and in the basement of the West standings, but this team was never expected to be a playoff contender, and Simons' injury didn't help. This was a developmental season in Portland to identify potential franchise cornerstones the team can build around with Lillard in the rearview.
Simons' production and constant improvement make it seem like Portland struck gold on its 2018 late first-round pick, even if it took a few years.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.
