Bet or Bail: How the Rookie of the Year race is shaping up

Every year, NBA executives draft players they study endlessly but still know little about. These decisions have a monumental impact on the trajectories of franchises.

They can try to evaluate an individual's basketball talent, but how do they assess the person they are or will become? It's a challenging task that becomes more of a guessing game than people making these decisions care to admit.

It's too early to know who the right and wrong guys are from this rookie class. Some players develop faster than others. Certain guys are in ideal situations, while some enter organizational dysfunction.

Regardless, through two months of the season, we have an idea of which teams got it right.

This week's edition of Bet or Bail takes a look at the Rookie of the Year race to discern how odds have shifted for some of the top candidates. In other words, let's see if oddsmakers are betting or bailing on the rookies and how they've performed relative to expectations.

Chet Holmgren, Victor Wembanyama

This award is a two-horse race between Holmgren and Wembanyama.

The two unicorn centers with guard skills have taken turns as the favorite this season. As the odds indicate, Wembanyama was the runaway favorite to win the award before the season as the most hyped prospect of this generation. It was going to take a uniquely special talent to dissuade voters from gifting Wembanyama the award.

Well, Holmgren is exactly that. His rim protection, handle, exceptional touch around the basket, ability to shoot from the outside, and intelligence as the screener in the pick-and-roll have catapulted his campaign. Holmgren's Thunder have the second-best record in the West, and the 7-footer is the team's third-leading scorer and leading rebounder.

Holmgren wasn't in the same draft class as Wembanyama. The Gonzaga product was drafted in 2022 - Wembanyama was selected in 2023 - but he missed the entire season with a foot injury. So, this is technically Holmgren's rookie season.

The raw box-score numbers favor Wembanyama. The Frenchman's averaging 19 points, 11 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and three blocks on 43% shooting from the field and 28% from three.

Holmgren's averaging 16.9 points, eight boards, 2.4 assists, and 2.8 blocks on 52% shooting from the field and 37% from three.

But the context surrounding each player provides a fuller picture. Wembanyama is on one of the NBA's worst teams. That means he has a greater role on a Spurs squad that's years away from truly competing. His usage rate is 28.3 compared to 21.2 for Holmgren, who doesn't have the luxury of being the focal point of an offense.

Wembanyama's higher usage rate has led to better counting statistics, but it also causes his efficiency numbers to plummet. Holmgren's efficiency has benefitted from a smaller role with talented teammates.

In the betting market's eyes, Holmgren has done enough to surpass the extraordinary excitement surrounding Wembanyama. However, there are still months to go before the award is decided.

One of these two will undoubtedly win Rookie of the Year, and the skinny-framed, ultra-talented giants will be inextricably linked for years to come.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Heat culture has done it again. Miami has once more identified an under-the-radar prospect in the draft and successfully developed him into an immediate impact player and a perfect fit.

Jaquez's impact on the Heat has been monumental since the departure of Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. He doesn't act like a rookie. He consistently makes the right play on both ends and is the Heat's fourth-leading scorer, averaging 13 points in 28 minutes per game.

The Heat drafted the four-year UCLA standout 18th overall in April.

Jaquez is a sharpshooter who connects on 38% of his threes, but he can also create for himself, as 37% of his made field goals are unassisted, fourth most among rookies.

This is the tape of a veteran, not a rookie. Jaquez uses a beautiful shot fake to get his defender in the air and drives left before using a hop step to get in the paint and finish through contact over a towering Andre Drummond.

His exceptional perimeter defense is even more impressive. His 6-foot-6 frame combined with an almost 7-foot wingspan creates havoc for opposing guards. He's also usually in the right spots off the ball, which is rare for a first-year player.

Below, Jaquez beats Ayo Dosunmu to the spot, swipes at the ball to force it loose, and dives to the floor to gain possession. If there's a play that defines the overused and at times nauseating term "Heat culture," this is it:

Jaquez wasn't close to the top of the Rookie of the Year oddsboard before the season. He now sits third, although still a long shot behind Wembanyama and Holmgren. He won't claim the award, but he and the Heat still won by setting up the perfect pairing.

Ausar Thompson

It's important to note that certain players' odds may have lengthened, but their position on the oddsboard is a better indicator of a rookie's performance. Holmgren and Wembanyama are heavy favorites, which creates incredibly long odds for other contenders.

Thompson was drafted fifth overall, one pick behind his twin brother, Amen Thompson. Ausar's inside presence has led him to the fourth-best odds to win Rookie of the Year.

Amen had better odds than his brother before the season, but injuries have derailed his rookie campaign, effectively knocking him out of the race.

Ausar's offensive repertoire is limited. He has a ways to go before he becomes a reliable scorer - if he ever makes that leap. However, on a Pistons club with the NBA's worst record and stuck in quicksand with no escape route, Ausar has blossomed into a potential building block.

He's averaging 10 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He's a force on the offensive glass and was one of the league leaders in offensive boards early in the season, but he went from averaging 28 minutes per game in November to 22 in December.

He scores almost exclusively inside the paint but will occasionally step outside for a corner or wing three. Despite shooting 15% from deep, Ausar still shoots two threes per contest.

Amen was viewed as the better scorer and prospect, but Ausar has impressed in his first few months as a pro.

Scoot Henderson

Henderson's rookie season has been filled with more disappointment than optimism. His struggles start with his outside shot.

He's shooting 23% from three and 37% from the field. His shooting was a concern throughout the draft process, but his explosiveness made up for it. Henderson's finding it difficult to score efficiently - or at all - without a reliable shot. His development wasn't helped by an injury that knocked him out for the first two weeks of November.

Henderson needs to improve in the pick-and-roll. It's his most common play type, but he scores just .798 points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball-handler. That's around the league average, according to Synergy Sports, and similar to his production in his lone season with the G League Ignite.

Henderson has made strides, though. He's averaging 14 points over his last eight games after averaging eight through his first nine. It's difficult for him to shine in a crowded Trail Blazers backcourt, but there's still plenty of time this season and beyond before the jury makes its ruling.

Brandon Miller

The Hornets drafted Miller one spot ahead of Henderson. Plenty of discussion surrounded who would follow Wembanyama as the next player off the board at No. 2.

Miller's season hasn't gone too differently from Henderson's. He's shown flashes as a fluid scorer capable of getting to any spot on the floor and scoring at will. However, he's also struggled with efficiency issues, particularly from 2-point land.

His role elevated when Lamelo Ball went down with an ankle injury on Nov. 26. He became a primary option and has attempted four more shots per game since Ball's been out. That's allowed his scoring average to rise, as Miller's produced 12 straight games in double figures. Miller plays 32.3 minutes per game, the most among rookies.

Miller needs to become a stronger finisher to take his game to another level. Ball and Miller represent the franchise's future. Miller's production can't drop when Ball returns, as they need to find a way to work off each other.

Keyonte George

George had the ninth-best preseason odds to win Rookie of the Year following an electric Las Vegas Summer League showing. He now has the sixth-best odds, as he immediately embraced an on-ball role when he arrived in Utah.

The Jazz's future is murky, but George should be a part of it. He's a streaky scorer, which is common for a rookie. He's skillful enough to explode for monster scoring performances, like when he dropped 30 on 5-for-9 shooting from distance earlier in December.

He's also had some duds. It'll be a while until we know if the Jazz struck gold with their 16th overall selection.

He's a poor finisher at the rim and has a bizarre release point on his jumper. He can, however, use his athleticism to get downhill and create space. Whether that's enough to earn him an All-Rookie selection remains to be seen.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.