NBA Monday best bets: A Curry explosion is coming
We're coming off an excellent 13-4 week to push our season record to 36-32, and it's a short week in the Association with no games on Thanksgiving.
Let's dive into Monday's best bets.
Heat @ Bulls (+1.5, O/U 208.5)
The Heat had won seven straight before the Bulls defeated them on Saturday. But drama still followed the Bulls in their win, as Zach LaVine, who's expected to be traded at some point soon, was seen walking off the court in anguish.
Things are falling apart in Chicago. The Bulls had lost three straight before their last win. It's hard to beat any team two times in three nights, and it's difficult to beat a team as well-coached and as physical as the Heat. Miami will return to its winning ways and defeat a dysfunctional Bulls unit.
Pick: Heat -1.5
Knicks @ Wolves (-3, O/U 214.5)
The Knicks and Timberwolves each rank in the top five in defensive rating. While they have some offensive firepower - particularly in their backcourts - this should be a defensive battle between two teams that protect the rim at an elite level.
The Knicks rank dead last in pace, while the Wolves are in the bottom half of the league, meaning neither unit plays particularly fast. The Knicks have won six of their last seven, but all of those wins were against weaker opponents. While their offense has been clicking after a putrid start to the season, it'll be stifled by the Wolves' lockdown defense.
Pick: Under 214.5
Bucks @ Wizards -9, O/U 245.5
The Bucks and Wizards play opposite brands of basketball from the previously discussed teams. The Wizards play with the league's second-fastest pace, while the Bucks rank seventh in that category.
They also both struggle defensively. Washington has the fifth-worst defensive rating and Milwaukee has the 10th worst.
The total is high, but that's for a reason. Defense won't be a priority for these two teams as they run up the floor and chuck shots at a high rate. The over has hit in eight of the Wizards' 12 games.
Pick: Over 245.5
Steph Curry: Over 28.5 points
The Warriors have been a disaster the last few weeks. They've lost six straight after starting the season 6-2. Part of that is because Steph Curry missed two games and Draymond Green is serving a five-game suspension.
But the Warriors' other contributors aren't providing much help. Most notably, Klay Thompson is in a concerning shooting slump.
This Warriors team doesn't seem equipped to compete with the best in the West, but if it wants a chance at a high seed in the playoffs, Curry will have to do the carrying.
Curry was averaging over 30 points per game before his brief injury hiatus. He only scored 25 last game with poor efficiency in his return from injury, but expect him to explode against the Rockets, who are playing for the second consecutive night.
He scored at least 30 in three of his four games before he got injured. The Warriors' only chance to end their losing streak and get back on track is with a heroic Curry performance.
Odds: -135 (playable to -150)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.