Draymond Green's WWE chokehold on Rudy Gobert stole the headlines from an exciting week of hoops. It may be hard to believe, but we're almost a month into the NBA season. While we might think we know a lot about teams and players, the results in a few months will show otherwise.
On this week's edition of Bet or Bail, we dive into Gobert's defensive mastery, Mitchell Robinson's dominance on the offensive glass, the Clippers disaster, and Tim Hardaway Jr.'s impact.
Bet on Gobert as a DPOY candidate
After winning three of four Defensive Player of the Year awards from 2018-21, Gobert's defense fell off a cliff last season, his first with the Timberwolves.
Minnesota gave up a haul of assets to acquire Gobert, and the early returns were disappointing.
Now, Gobert is back to being a Defensive Player of the Year candidate as the anchor of the league's best defense. His rim protection that frightened driving offensive players is back to the level of production Minnesota expected when it traded for him.
Gobert had the sixth-best odds to win DPOY before the season at +1300. He's now the betting favorite at +500.
The three-time award winner is allowing just 0.83 points per shot at the rim, and teams are shooting 41.4% from the field at the rim against Gobert, according to Synergy Sports. Last year, Gobert allowed 1.03 points per shot at the rim, and teams shot 51% around the rim.
The Timberwolves allow the third-fewest points in the paint. It's not hard to figure out why. The answer is a Frenchman towering over the opposition.
Gobert's recorded a double-double in seven of his 10 games. He's averaging 2.1 blocks per game, up from 1.4 last season. His blocks betting line is typically set at 1.5, and he's swatted at least two shots in 70% of games.
Gobert struggles guarding smaller, shiftier players in open space. That weakness is often exploited in the playoffs when he's constantly targeted in the pick-and-roll and against smaller lineups.
However, he looks like a different defensive player this season. Maybe it's effort or comfort with his new team. It's hard to know exactly, but the buy-in from the 31-year-old shines through on tape.
Here's Gobert getting caught in a switch last season on Jaylen Brown, who uses brilliant footwork and ball fakes to outmaneuver Gobert and hit a difficult shot:
Now, here's Gobert getting caught in the same switch this season. This time, he prevents Brown from getting to his spot and forces him into a contested turnaround jumper on a crucial late-game possession:
The 8-3 Timberwolves are well on their way to eclipse their 44.5 preseason win total.
Whether the Wolves' lineups translate to the playoffs is a concern for April - although the betting markets still aren't buying it, as Minnesota has the seventh-best odds to win the conference (+1400). For now, the Wolves are all smiles as a top team in the West with the Defensive Player of the Year favorite.
Bet on Robinson's rebounding
Dennis Rodman is one of the greatest offensive rebounders who ever lived. He broke offensive rebounding down to a science, evaluating where the ball was headed based on which of his teammates was shooting and from where.
He has the fourth-most offensive rebounds in a single season with 523 (Moses Malone holds the record with 587). Mitchell Robinson likely won't crack the top four this season, but he has a chance to come close.
He's on pace for 475, which would be the fifth-most in NBA history. Robinson leads the league in offensive rebounds and is fourth in total rebounds.
The league's rebounding leaders thus far are predictable: Nikola Jokic, Gobert, and Domantas Sabonis. They're big men who play near the rim on defense, so they naturally collect rebounds.
Less than 33% of that trio's rebounds come from the offensive glass. For Robinson, 50% of his boards are on the offensive end.
Robinson's gone over his betting total on rebounds in seven of his 11 games.
Yes, Robinson is 7-feet tall, has a 7-foot-4 wingspan, and looks like he's leaping off a springboard every time he jumps. But dominating the offensive glass takes more than just athletic prowess.
Offensive rebounding is an art, one that Robinson has mastered using similar tendencies Rodman outlined decades ago - although Robinson's extra 5 inches help.
Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau emphasizes crashing the offensive glass. Usually, when a team encourages offensive rebounding, its transition defense suffers because fewer players are in position to get back on defense. Not the Knicks.
Robinson's lone presence as an offensive rebounder is equivalent to other teams sending two players to the glass. He allows the Knicks to have the league's second-best offensive-rebounding percentage while allowing just 12.9 fast-break points per game, the fifth-fewest.
Robinson's rebounds create extra possessions for the Knicks, which is paramount for a team that plays at the NBA's second-slowest pace (the under is 7-4 in Knicks games). New York averages 17 second-chance points per game, the fourth-most.
Here's Robinson positioning himself perfectly for the offensive board and then kicking it out to Immanuel Quickley for an open three:
Last season, Robinson said, "You got to put three guys on me to keep me off the glass." And he's right:
Robinson's offensive rebounding often provides a lifeline to an offense that's looked lifeless at times.
Bail on the Clippers circus
When Logan Roy meets with his kids in the final season of the hit show "Succession," he delivers a simple, iconic message: "You are not serious people."
Watching the circus in Los Angeles makes one thing clear: The Clippers are not serious people.
They're 0-5 with James Harden in the lineup and have covered the spread just once in that span.
The Clippers are -180 (64% implied probability) to make the playoffs and +140 (41% implied probability) to miss the postseason.
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are still All-Star-level wing scorers who can create for themselves. Russell Westbrook doesn't have even half of the burst he had when he won MVP in 2017 - but he still serves a valuable role as a distributor, hustler, and asset in transition.
Harden, however, is the exact opposite. He's lackadaisical defensively and plays at an exceptionally slow pace. The 76ers had the NBA's fourth-slowest pace last season. Doc Rivers publicly stated that's not how he wanted to play, but he had no choice with Harden.
Westbrook, George, and Leonard produce a 19.5 net rating when they share the court; it's the Clippers' best three-man lineup. Harden, George, Westbrook, and Leonard have a minus-11.9 net rating together. But it's impossible to not play Harden after trading valuable pieces for him.
Other than the fact Harden and Westbrook can't be on the floor together - Westbrook was benched in crunch time against the Nuggets on Tuesday night - the crux of the problem lies here: Harden needs the ball in his hands to succeed, but he isn't as prolific with the ball as George or Leonard.
Harden's a good passer, which requires him to have the ball. He led the league in assists last season, but that was mostly because he had the perfect pick-and-roll partner in Joel Embiid. That doesn't exist in L.A.
Harden, theoretically, should be great off the ball. He's shot 39.1% on catch-and-shoot threes over the last five seasons. However, for whatever reason, Harden's not comfortable in that role right now.
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— Coach Gibson Pyper (@HalfCourtHoops) November 9, 2023
Harden, to his credit, openly acknowledged he's more comfortable shooting off the dribble and said it's "weird" shooting off the catch but that he'll start doing so more.
Harden's reducing his teammates' production levels as they figure out the best way to fit together. Leonard and Westbrook have gone under their betting point totals in four of five games they've played with Harden, while the Beard has only gone over his points prop in two of those contests.
This isn't something that can be fixed. The personnel grouping doesn't work. The Clippers will start winning some games, and Harden may become better suited off the ball, but if they want a shot at contention before the whole operation explodes in free agency, a trade is the only option (likely shipping out Westbrook).
The Clippers currently have the fifth-best odds to win the West. I'd stay far away from any Clippers futures. As Mavericks analyst Brian Dameris said on Bally Sports last week in a now-viral clip directed at Harden, "You're not the system; you're the problem." And he, along with the Clippers, are not serious contenders.
Bet on Hardaway's bench role
Hardaway Jr.'s quietly having one of the best seasons of his career while averaging his fewest minutes since 2016-17. The 10-year vet has fully embraced his role coming off the bench. He was +1500 to win Sixth Man of the Year before the season and climbed as high as +2500 in the first week of November. He's currently +425 (bet $10 to win $42.50).
Without Kyrie Irving in the lineup against the Wizards on Wednesday night, Hardaway scored a season-high 31 points in 27 minutes on a wildly efficient 7-for-11 from three.
He's averaging 18.7 points per game on 40% shooting from three. Hardaway has struggled with efficiency throughout his career, but he's made strides this season as the go-to option in the second unit.
He's a big reason why the Mavs have the league's second-best offensive rating and the second-best record in the West. Luka Doncic and Irving are the engines behind Dallas' prolific offense, but when those two are on the bench, Hardaway's made sure the wheels don't fall off.
Even with Doncic and/or Irving on the floor, Hardaway plays the perfect role as a floor-spacer. He gets more open looks than he should because Doncic and Irving command so much attention from the defense.
He's shooting 9.3 threes per game, the fourth-most in the league. The rest of the top 10 in 3-point attempts all average at least 33 minutes per game, while Hardaway plays just under 28 minutes. When teams try to take away his three, Hardaway has a clean one-dribble jumper he often utilizes.
Hardaway's on pace for his best season as a Maverick in his sixth year in Dallas. The Mavericks desperately needed this version of Hardaway, as depth was a major concern before the season.
If he can keep up this efficiency and volume from long distance, he'll continue to have the ultimate green light and may run away with the Sixth Man award.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.
