NBA Monday best bets: Rested Magic, Harden's Clippers debut

It's a new week of NBA basketball. Monday brings a stuffed slate with 24 teams in action before the league goes dark Tuesday.

We're 18-15 on the season with our best bets and looking for another winning week. Here are Monday's bets:

Mavericks @ Magic (-1.5)

Teams with a rest advantage are 20-13-1 against the spread this season. The Magic haven't played since Saturday, while the Mavericks played at home Sunday night and traveled to Orlando following the game.

Both teams appear primed for great seasons. They each rank in the top 10 in net rating, and the Magic are 5-1 ATS.

The Mavs have the NBA's second-best offensive rating, but Orlando has the second-best defensive rating. Something will have to give.

Orlando does a great job controlling the glass, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive rebounding percentage and opponent offensive rebounding percentage. The Mavs rank in the bottom third in the league in both categories. If the Magic are going to have success Monday night, it'll be by securing extra possessions.

Pick: Magic -1.5 (-110, playable to -120)

Clippers @ Knicks (-1)

Jalen Brunson has picked up right where he left off last season, carrying the Knicks despite his co-star's underwhelming efforts.

Brunson's averaging 24.7 points on 39.5% shooting from three. Julius Randle's averaging 13.7 points on 27% shooting from the field.

Randle's a huge reason why the Knicks have the NBA's second-worst offensive rating and the worst effective field-goal percentage, although their third-best defensive rating has made up for it to a degree.

However, the Clippers have an elite offense. They rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating, and James Harden is set to make his debut.

A starting five that includes Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George will surely look wacky at times. It'll also take time for the Clippers to build an effective system with so many guys who demand the ball. But the sheer excitement of Harden's debut, as well as the Knicks' horrid offense, will lead L.A. to a win.

Pick: Clippers +1 (-110, playable to -120)

Tyrese Maxey over 21.5 points

Tyrese Maxey has cooled off since his electric start to the season. Maxey has scored 22 and 18 over the last two games after averaging 30 points through three, but he did have a season-high 10 assists in Philadelphia's win Saturday over the Suns.

Still, Sixers coach Nick Nurse publicly stated postgame Saturday that he expects more from Maxey as a scorer.

"He's too good to play passively," Nurse said.

Philadelphia's head honcho surely relayed that message to Maxey privately, too. Expect him to be receptive and show more aggression as a scorer against the Wizards.

The only scenario I see Maxey not scoring more than 22 points is if the game is a Sixers blowout and his minutes are reduced.

Odds: -125 (playable to -150)

Julius Randle over 4.5 assists

Although Julius Randle is shooting the second-worst field-goal percentage through six games in NBA history, his assists numbers have still been solid.

He's averaging 5.5 assists, which would be the most he's recorded since the 2020-21 season. Randle is struggling to make shots, but his shot selection is also incredibly poor. He's often forcing difficult shots in one-on-one situations instead of passing out.

Randle will see that when watching film. If he adjusts Monday night and lets the game come to him, he should create even more opportunities for his teammates. That'll only aid the Knicks' offense and help Randle reach five assists against the Clippers.

Odds: +125

Victor Wembanyama under 20.5 points

Victor Wembanyama has lived up to every bit of the hype on both sides of the ball through six games. The Spurs (3-3) are competitive again because of him.

However, he's only exceeded 20 points twice. His impact has been much greater defensively and as a rebounder.

This is also the second leg of San Antonio's first back-to-back this season. Many believed prior to their campaign that the Spurs would manage Wembanyama's minutes, although he's currently averaging 30 per game.

It's fair to assume Wembanyama's playing time will be reduced against the Pacers on Monday night. He played a career-high 38 minutes Sunday in an overtime loss to the Raptors. There's a chance Wembanyama sits altogether, in which case this bet becomes void.

If he does play, though, don't expect a 30-plus-minute night. Wembanyama has failed to reach 20 points in the three games he's played under 30 minutes.

Odds: -115 (playable to -130)

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.