FIBA World Cup best bets: Will Team USA overcome its inexperience?

At one point, All-NBA teams were filled almost exclusively with American-born talent. When former commissioner David Stern made it his mission to globalize the game, foreign stars were rare. Fast forward a couple of decades and the international brand of basketball has taken over the NBA.

Four of the five players selected to the All-NBA First Team last season were born outside America. This isn't just great for the NBA as it continues to expand its international presence, but it's also great for the game of basketball. It makes the Olympics and the FIBA World Cup more competitive - and more interesting.

Although stars like Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are sitting out of the World Cup, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and many others are playing in the event set to begin Friday.

Earlier this week we wrote a full preview and broke down every group. It's time to look at some of the markets available and give our picks.

FIBA World Cup Champion odds

At the 2019 FIBA World Cup, Team USA failed to recruit any marquee names and was plagued by inexperience, leading to a disastrous seventh-place finish.

Many pundits are concerned this year's team is on a similar trajectory with no prior senior-level playing experience and no 2022-23 All-NBA players - both firsts for Team USA.

But this team is different than four years ago. The 2019 squad wasn't just inexperienced, it was poorly constructed. This year's bunch shows chemistry and connectivity so far.

Sure, there's no superstar prowess on the team but it does have a leader and true point guard in Jalen Brunson. Anthony Edwards proved he can take control of a game when he dropped 34 points against Germany in an exhibition match. Brandon Ingram and Mikal Bridges are versatile wing scorers and defenders. The team rosters a rim-protecting and rim-running big man in Jaren Jackson Jr. And Tyrese Haliburton, Austin Reaves, Paolo Banchero, and Cam Johnson provide the necessary scoring depth.

In 2019, Team USA showed signs of vulnerability in its exhibition games, including a pre-tournament loss to Australia that snapped a 78-game winning streak in exhibition and non-exhibition games.

This year's team went 5-0 in exhibition games, proving its resiliency when it faced deficits to Spain and Germany.

France, Canada, and Australia are all worthy challengers. France has the second-best odds to win at +750 after a five-point loss to the States in the 2021 Olympic gold medal game. France returned many pieces from that silver-medal team, including Evan Fournier, Nicolas Batum, and Rudy Gobert.

Canada's team is full of NBA players, but its scoring relies too much on Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett. It could mean trouble if either has an off-night.

If the U.S. had incredibly short odds like they did in 2019, they wouldn't be worth a pick. However, at only -125 as the tournament's most talented team, this iteration of Team USA will reclaim the top of the World Cup podium.

Pick: USA -125

Tournament MVP

The last four tournament MVPs - and six of the last seven - have come from the championship team. The lone exception was Dirk Nowitzki's 2002 victory despite Germany's third-place finish.

There's a good chance whoever wins this award will also be draped in a gold medal. As the overwhelming favorite, Team USA has the top three MVP candidates.

Betting on an American player is essentially doubling down on Team USA to win. Which Team USA player is best positioned to win it? Head coach Steve Kerr believes Anthony Edwards is "unquestionably the guy," as he came into camp on the heels of an All-Star season and offered a stellar 34-point performance in Team USA's final exhibition appearance.

There's a case for Brunson, who will undoubtedly play an enormous role, but as a leader and offensive facilitator. Edwards is more likely to fill the box score every game.

While there are Slovenian, Canadian, Serbian, and Australian players on the favorites board, France has the next best odds to win. So, if it's not an American player, it's most likely going to be a French player.

Fournier is a long shot at +2200. It's worth a shot given Fournier's role and France's gold-medal potential.

Pick: Anthony Edwards +350, Evan Fournier +2200

Top total points scorer

Americans rarely lead international events in points because the talent on the team creates a more even scoring distribution.

When calculating total points at the end of the tournament, medal games count but classification games do not- so only players who make the semifinals will appear in the maximum number of games that qualify.

Slovenia has always been a formidable basketball country, but since Doncic emerged, they've gone to new heights. Slovenia finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, where the Mavs' superstar averaged 23.8 points per game. That total was good for second behind Ricky Rubio.

Doncic averaged 23.7 points with limited minutes in four exhibition games over the last month. Slovenia returns nine players from its Olympic team, setting them up for another semifinal run.

In Canada's five exhibition games, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 17.4 points per game with restricted minutes.

Doncic has more international experience than Gilgeous-Alexander and is more vital to his team's offensive success. Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite because Canada's likely to make it farther than Slovenia. If Gilgeous-Alexander gets even one more meaningful game in than Doncic, it's the former's honor to lock up.

Another name to keep an eye on is Bogdan Bogdanovic. He's the focal point of Serbia's offense, and he can lead his team to a semis run - they have the sixth-best odds to win it all - he'll be at the top of the pack in total points.

Pick: Luka Doncic +450, Bogdan Bogdanovic +1000

Most tournament blocks

Jackson Jr. has been a block machine in Team USA's five scrimmages. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year had 13 blocks in five games, including six in one contest against Germany.

Gobert - a three-time Defensive Player of the Year winner - had 15 blocks for France in the 2019 World Cup, which was the second most in the tournamnt.

Offenses will attempt to take both Jackson Jr. and Gobert away from the rim and limit shots at the basket when those guys are around. That won't stop them from swatting shots away like flies.

But Gobert isn't the shot blocker he once was, only averaging 1.4 blocks per game last season. On the other hand Jackson Jr.'s three blocks per game led the league, so he's the safer pick.

Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. -120

Opening day: France (-1.5) vs. Canada

France and Canada - the second and third favorites, respectively - play on Friday at 9:30 a.m. Both teams have a legitimate chance to win the World Cup, setting up the best group-stage game of the tournament.

The winner of this group will be the winner of this game, as both France and Canada should have no issues defeating Latvia and Lebanon. So if you think France will top this group - as I do - it's better to take their 1.5-point spread priced at -115 in Friday's game than bet on them to win the group at -130.

France's national team core has played together for years. They don't have a rotating cast that changes every few years like Team USA and Canada do. Canada has the best player on the floor, but France's experience, chemistry, and depth are the reason they're a slight favorite and the reason they'll outlast Canada in the opener.

Pick: France -1.5

All odds via theScore Bet.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.