How the Rookie of the Year market is reacting to Summer League

Sam Oshtry ·
LAS VEGAS, NV - JULY 7: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs dribbles the ball during the 2023 NBA Las Vegas Summer League against the Charlotte Hornets on July 7, 2023 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE
Garrett Ellwood / National Basketball Association / Getty

The Las Vegas Summer League is the first chance for rookies to showcase their talents in front of the basketball world since they were drafted in June.

Players, coaches, executives, scouts, and just about every basketball mind in the NBA gather in Vegas to get a glimpse of the league's future.

The top picks are scrutinized or praised based on just a few showings. After a weekend of Summer League, let's take a look at some of the top picks' performances and the related adjustments to the Rookie of the Year market.

ROY odds before/after Summer League

Player Before After
Victor Wembanyama -210 -180
Scoot Henderson +350 +375
Chet Holmgren +450 +400
Brandon Miller +900 +1200
Amen Thompson +1400 +1800
Cam Whitmore +5000 +2200
Aleksandar Vezenkov N/A +2500

Odds via theScore Bet

No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama garnered the most attention, playing in front of the fifth soldout crowd in Summer League history Friday night. However, Wembanyama's summer league debut was, well, underwhelming.

The French prospect's defensive presence was evident from the opening tip. He altered every shot in his vicinity, showed his foot speed on the perimeter, and finished with five blocks. Offensively, though, he struggled. Wembanyama scored just nine points on 2-for-13 shooting. Although he showed some incredible playmaking ability and a beautiful handle for a guy his size, he failed to find a rhythm and was often pushed off his spots.

The markets adjusted to Wembanyama's disappointing debut. The first overall pick was -210 to win Rookie of the Year before Summer League. He's now -180.

Wembanyama responded with a performance that justified the exceptional praise he's received. He dazzled the crowd Sunday night to the tune of 27 points and 12 rebounds, including 2-for-4 shooting from three. But his odds to win Rookie of the Year remained at -180, and he won't play another Summer League game.

No. 3 overall pick Scoot Henderson was +350 to win Rookie of the Year when we wrote about that market June 28. However, his odds lengthened by a small margin after he left the Blazers' opener with a shoulder injury and subsequently missed the next contest. Henderson is currently listed as day-to-day, but it'd be surprising if Portland lets him play another game.

Yet he still impressed with 15 points, five rebounds, and six assists in just 21 minutes before the ailment. Henderson remains the second favorite to win Rookie of the Year.

Chet Holmgren is the third favorite, and I wrote about why there's value on him to win Rookie of the Year at +450. A consistent Summer League showing has shortened those odds.

Across three games, Holmgren is averaging 13.7 points and 10 rebounds. While those aren't sensational numbers, the 2022 No. 2 overall pick has shown his shotmaking ability in flashes and why he belongs in the Rookie of the Year conversation. Holmgren is now +400 to win.

Brandon Miller, on the other hand, has seen his odds lengthen dramatically due to his inconsistency. The 2023 No. 2 overall pick showed he's a dangerous three-level scorer with 18 points against the Spurs, but he followed that up with a six-point dud.

After outshining Wembanyama in their head-to-head duel with 16 points and 11 rebounds, Miller again had a substandard performance by finishing with 10 points on 22% shooting from the field and 0-for-7 from three in 29 minutes versus the Lakers on Sunday.

On June 28, the Alabama product was +900 to win Rookie of the Year. Now, he's +1200 to win the award.

Amen Thompson remains the fifth favorite to win Rookie of the Year, but his odds jumped from +1400 to +1800 after he hurt his left ankle in his debut. He had a 16-point, five-assist showing in 28 minutes during his only Summer League appearance.

Other notable movement

Cam Whitmore made a massive jump from +5000 to win Rookie of the Year to +2200 after two impressive Summer League showings. After slipping to No. 20 in the draft because of medical and personality concerns, the projected lottery pick reminded everyone of his talent by pouring in 14 and 21 points, respectively.

Gradey Dick entered Summer League at +2500 to win Rookie of the Year. He's jumped to +4000 with poor shooting performances. In two games, he's scored a combined 21 points and is shooting 3-for-12 from 3-point range.

It's worth mentioning a name that wasn't even on the board a few weeks ago. Aleksandar Vezenkov, more commonly known as Sasha, inked a three-year deal last week with the Sacramento Kings, who owned Vezenkov's rights.

Vezenkov was the EuroLeague MVP last season and is technically a rookie despite being 27 years old. He has the seventh-best odds to win Rookie of the Year at +2500 and would be the oldest player to ever win the award.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more basketball betting coverage.

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