Condolences to anyone who bet Heat -6.5 before news broke that Jimmy Butler would sit in Game 5, though we still split our NBA picks with the Timberwolves' close loss to the Grizzlies as big road underdogs.
Here are our best bets for Wednesday's two contests:
Bulls @ Bucks (-12.5, 217.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
What looked like the most lopsided first-round matchup seemingly turned into one of the most compelling after the Bulls knotted the series at one win apiece and Bucks star Khris Middleton left with a knee injury. But it's been all Milwaukee since then, and it's hard to see that turning around.
The Bucks blasted Chicago by a combined 54 points in Games 3 and 4 to take a commanding series lead, and things are only looking worse for the Bulls in Game 5. All-Star scoring guard Zach LaVine has already been ruled out of Wednesday's contest, while defensive stalwart Alex Caruso will also sit out in this must-win spot.
With Lonzo Ball already sidelined, the Bulls are running out of options in the backcourt. Now, young guards Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are being thrust into crucial minutes against the defending champions. Since the 2018-19 season, double-digit favorites in the playoffs are 18-7-2 against the spread, though the Bucks recorded two of those losses in this series. With LaVine on the shelf, I don't expect a repeat performance here.
Pick: Bucks -12.5
Nuggets @ Warriors (-8, 225.5), 10 p.m.
You had to figure that presumptive two-time MVP Nikola Jokic would go off at least once in this series to avoid being the first reigning MVP in NBA history to get swept in the first round. Can he do it again?
Jokic was the catalyst of Sunday's 126-121 win for the Nuggets, scoring 37 points for the second consecutive game. The difference in Game 4? The Warriors' sharpshooters couldn't keep pace, hitting 12 threes on 35.3% from deep after making at least 16 threes on at least 42% shooting in each of the first three games.
I'd expect Golden State's shooters to get back on track at home, especially with Stephen Curry looking closer to MVP form with every passing game. The Dubs have covered 26 of 43 home games (60.5%) this season, and their role players are well-positioned to go off in a potential series-clincher.
Pick: Warriors -8
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].
