NBA playoff teams to fade: Bucks, Mavericks are tough to trust
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On Thursday, we dished out our best buys for the NBA playoffs, highlighting the Toronto Raptors and Los Angeles Clippers as teams to bet. This time, however, we're identifying the overvalued squads in the futures market.
Bettors should steer clear of these two clubs.
Odds to win the 2019-20 NBA title
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bucks | +250 |
| Lakers | +250 |
| Clippers | +250 |
| Rockets | +1200 |
| Celtics | +1500 |
| Raptors | +1800 |
| Nuggets | +2200 |
| Heat | +2800 |
| 76ers | +3000 |
| Mavericks | +4000 |
| Jazz | +4000 |
| Trail Blazers | +5000 |
| Thunder | +9000 |
| Pacers | +10000 |
| Grizzlies | +10000 |
| Nets | +25000 |
Bucks (+250)
The Bucks deserve to top the oddsboard.
They lead the league in winning percentage, net rating, and eFG%, among other statistical categories. Milwaukee toyed with the rest of the East during the regular season, setting an unprecedented but impressive standard en route to a 56-17 finish. Technically the Bucks underachieved - they fell three games short of their 59-win pace.
So why all the shade?
Well, it wouldn't be the first time Milwaukee's been tough to trust in the postseason. The franchise has yet to reach the conference finals while utilizing Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The East has a long-standing reputation as the weaker of the two conferences, but the Bucks will have some competition. The Celtics are quietly tied for second in the NBA in net rating, while the reigning champion Toronto Raptors are fourth. Plus, if the Bucks do reach the Finals, is there enough experience to get past, say, a Clippers or Lakers squad?
I don't want to be greedy, but I'd need a slightly better number on Milwaukee in a playoff format. This is a full-on pass.
Mavericks (+4000)
The Mavericks could have gone toe to toe with six teams in the West. It just so happens they drew the worst possible matchup.
Dallas possesses the league's top-ranked offense, posting a mind-bending 115.9 rating. However, it'll have to find a way to navigate around a Clippers defense that's given them problems all season long.
The Mavs went 0-3 against the Clips in 2019-20. An offense that averaged 117 points per game during the regular season only registered 105.7 against LA - without surpassing their team total once.
Dallas likes to play with finesse, but can't do that against a stout defense that excels at suffocating the wings. Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle even stated the obvious following a loss to Los Angeles in the bubble, telling SI, "we're at a physical disadvantage at a lot of positions" against the Clippers.
Everyone loves betting a long shot. Dallas shouldn't be the one on your radar.
(Odds source: theScore Bet).
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.