theScore's Nick Baldwin makes his picks ahead of Saturday's UFC 331 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Flyweight championship
Joshua Van (17-2)
vs.
Alexandre Pantoja (30-6)
Nine months after dropping the flyweight title because of a fluke injury, Alexandre Pantoja has a chance to get revenge against Joshua Van.
A lot of people seem to expect Pantoja to look like a shell of himself in the rematch. Sure, anything is possible - especially considering he's 36 years old, returning from an injury, and competing in the lightest weight class (which tends to favor younger fighters). But there's zero proof that Pantoja is suddenly washed up. It's impossible to draw any conclusions from the first fight against Van, and before that, Pantoja was choking out the best flyweights in the UFC with ease.
My prediction assumes that Pantoja still has what it takes to beat someone at Van's level. That's not to say it'll be a walk in the park; no matter what, this will be a competitive fight. Van will have the advantage on the feet and will win some rounds by outworking Pantoja. But Pantoja has terrific grappling, plus a lot more experience in five-round fights and against high-level competition. He's also tough as nails, and that can go a long way.
I'm expecting the rematch to be an exciting, back-and-forth fight that results in Pantoja getting the belt back.
The pick: Pantoja, unanimous decision
Lightweight bout
Arman Tsarukyan (23-3)
vs.
Mauricio Ruffy (14-2)
Mauricio Ruffy can't be counted out completely, but Arman Tsarukyan is a bad stylistic matchup for him. Tsarukyan is an outstanding wrestler with devastating ground-and-pound, while Ruffy is one of the flashiest strikers in the UFC. Ruffy has struggled against these kinds of fighters in the past, and this time will be no different. Look for Tsarukyan to weather the early storm and maul Ruffy on the ground once the Brazilian starts to get tired.
Tsarukyan is potentially fighting for a title shot, so he'll be motivated to put on the performance of a lifetime.
The pick: Tsarukyan, fourth-round submission
Featherweight bout
Patricio "Pitbull" Freire (37-9)
vs.
Dooho Choi (17-4-1)
In his prime, Patricio "Pitbull" Freire handles Dooho Choi relatively easily. Unfortunately, the former Bellator two-division champion's prime is behind him. This is still a winnable fight for Freire, but I trust Choi more to stay busy on the feet and get the judges' nod.
The pick: Choi, unanimous decision
Heavyweight bout
Gable Steveson (4-0)
vs.
Sean Sharaf (4-2)
This one's got a bit of heat after Sean Sharaf brought up past sexual assault allegations against Gable Steveson at Thursday's prefight press conference. But once these two hit the Octagon, it won't be competitive. Steveson might be a future champion, and Sharaf is nothing more than a stepping stone. Steveson wins this fight quickly.
The pick: Steveson, first-round TKO
Light heavyweight bout
Alonzo Menifield (18-6-1)
vs.
Iwo Baraniewski (9-0)
Iwo Baraniewski is 9-0 with nine first-round finishes. Alonzo Menifield has been knocked out four times in the UFC. This one isn't making it out of the first round.
The pick: Baraniewski, first-round TKO
Rapid-fire bets
Best overall bet: Arman Tsarukyan / Robelis Despaigne (-213)
I don't love many bets on this card. However, this parlay is solid. Tsarukyan has a big edge against Ruffy, and Robelis Despaigne should get an easy finish against Tai Tuivasa. I'm a big fan of the price given how likely it is both men get their hand raised.
Best underdog bet: Alexandre Pantoja (+120) def. Joshua Van
Pantoja has a tough fight ahead of him, but at plus money, I think it's wise to take a swing at the former champ.
Best prop bet: Patricio "Pitbull" Freire vs. Dooho Choi goes over 2.5 rounds (-120)
Despite Freire's decline, he remains very tough to put away. He's been finished just three times in his 46-fight career. This one feels bound for the scorecards.
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