UFC Vancouver predictions: Will Maia submit 'The Natural Born Killer?'

Prior to UFC on FOX 21, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis and Alexander K. Lee give their predictions on the event's main card bouts.

Welterweight Bout

Demian Maia (17-6 UFC, 23-6)
vs.
Carlos Condit (7-5 UFC, 30-9)

Alexander K. Lee: It's time for "The Natural Born Killer" to change gears. Carlos Condit has seen his share of stand-up wars over the past few years, but now he has to prepare for a threat unlike any he's faced before.

That being one Demian Maia, arguably the greatest Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner to ever make the transition to MMA. Condit has shown shaky takedown defense in the past and if Maia gets him on the ground, he'll suffer the same fate as Maia's last five opponents.

Luckily for Condit, there is some precedent for high-level strikers dealing with Maia. Middleweights Nate Marquardt, Anderson Silva, and Chris Weidman were all able to outstrike Maia and keep themselves away from his lethal grappling game. While Condit doesn't have the size of those fighters, his speed will be the key to staying upright. If this stays on the feet, Condit wins.

THE PICK: Condit

Themistoklis Alexis: Style clashes like these rarely get booked anymore.

A BJJ virtuoso, Maia will stick to his tried-and-true formula: take Condit down, move to back control, and look for a submission. A behemoth by welterweight standards, he shouldn't have much difficulty taking the lankier Condit to the ground. However, few are as active off their back as Condit, who'll throw elbows and punches to impede Maia's submission attempts.

Condit's best avenue to victory would be to stick and move with two- to three-strike combinations - as he did against Nick Diaz - and elude Maia's vice-like guard. That being said, the Brazilian is just too big and strong in his adopted weight class. Maia will grapple his way to a decision, with Condit throwing from his back all the while.

THE PICK: Maia

Featherweight Bout

Anthony Pettis (5-4 UFC, 18-5)
vs.
Charles Oliveira (9-5 UFC, 21-5)

Alexis: Anthony Pettis is in desperate need of a victory.

In the midst of the worst stretch of his career, Pettis will need to channel his old "Showtime" self against a matured Charles Oliveira. While far from a slouch on the ground, Pettis will keep the fight standing against the better grappler and work Oliveira over with kicks to the midsection as he did versus Benson Henderson and Donald Cerrone.

All five of Pettis' defeats have come by decision. He won't leave this one in the judges' hands.

THE PICK: Pettis

Lee: Just when you think Pettis' luck can't get any worse, he's matched up with a young gunner like Oliveira. The good news is that Pettis has never been submitted before. The bad news is that there's a first time for everything.

"Do Bronx" has been an absolute killer since making the move to 145, a weight that Pettis is competing at for the first time in his nine-year career. There's a chance that Pettis is rejuvenated at this lighter weight, but he's in tough against an opponent who will push the pace and give him little time to adjust.

As active as Pettis can be in the grappling department, he's not on Oliveira's level. Once Oliveira gets his hooks into Pettis, it will be a wrap.

THE PICK: Oliveira

Strawweight Bout

Paige VanZant (3-1 UFC, 6-2)
vs.
Bec Rawlings (2-1 UFC, 7-4)

Lee: Paige VanZant is going to have to prove herself all over again after a stirring run on "Dancing with the Stars" that raised her public profile while also raising some questions about her commitment to the sport.

That said, she remains a top-flight prospect with her athleticism and finishing ability that are uncommon in the strawweight division. Bec Rawlings is a tough draw for her first fight in eight months, which means VanZant will have to be at her most technical to avoid being drawn into a slugfest.

A finish could be out of the question, but VanZant will land just enough strikes and mix in takedowns for the win.

THE PICK: VanZant

Alexis: After getting schooled on the ground by Rose Namajunas, VanZant will get a boxing lesson from Rawlings.

Rawlings won't spend the first round feeling VanZant out. She'll play the aggressor and immediately stalk her with combinations. "Rowdy" will likely eat a few hard shots in her zeal, but her incessant, suffocating style will give her the edge over VanZant. The Australia product is equally comfortable on the ground, where she's earned four submission victories.

THE PICK: Rawlings

Lightweight Bout

Joe Lauzon (13-8 UFC, 26-11)
vs.
Jim Miller (15-7 UFC, 26-8)

Alexis: These two will either light each other up, put on a jiu-jitsu clinic, or both.

As hard as it is to root against the always thrilling Joe Lauzon, submitting Jim Miller is daunting to say the least, knocking him out even more so. With only one career win by decision, "J-Lau" will surely aim for a finish, but Miller is nothing if not durable and has the edge in power. Long story short, the lovable vets will put on a show worthy of their classic at UFC 155, and as in that fight, the New Jersey native will have his hand raised.

THE PICK: Miller

Lee: It almost seems like cruel and unusual punishment to pair Miller and Lauzon up again after the brutality they unleashed on each other last time. Still, you have to think Lauzon is excited about getting a chance to run this one back.

The key here is the motivation that Lauzon will have seeing as how he lost their first meeting. Astonishingly, Lauzon has never fought an opponent twice in his 37-fight career. The smart money is on him showing his adaptability and fighting a more careful fight this time around. If he's patient, he'll be rewarded with yet another finish.

THE PICK: Lauzon

UFC on FOX 21 complete picks