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What the odds say: Which team will land Ohtani in free agency?

Harry How / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Baseball's unicorn is a free agent.

After a disappointing end to his Angels tenure, Shohei Ohtani gets to pick his next team when he signs a massive new contract this offseason.

Every team in baseball will - or at least should - be putting together its best offer to land the dual-threat megastar, who's likely to win his second AL MVP award. However, it'll probably come down to a handful of teams that are willing and able to give Ohtani what could be the largest contract in MLB history.

Odds to sign Ohtani

Team Odds Implied probability
Dodgers +200 33.3%
Cubs +400 20%
Giants +500 16.7%
Yankees +700 12.5%
Mets +700 12.5%
Mariners +700 12.5%
Angels +1000 9.1%
Padres +1400 6.7%
Phillies +1600 5.9%
Rangers +1800 5.3%
Red Sox +1800 5.3%
Braves +3000 3.2%
Orioles +3500 2.8%
Blue Jays +3500 2.8%

Odds via theScore Bet. Teams priced at +4000 and above aren't listed.

Surprise, surprise! The Dodgers and their infinitely deep pockets are the favorites to sign Ohtani.

Oddsmakers have given the Dodgers a 33.3% implied probability of signing the 29-year-old, which is double any other team's chances outside of the Cubs.

It's worth mentioning that the Dodgers' team physician, Dr. Neal ElAttrache, performed surgery on Ohtani's elbow in early September - an injury that will keep Ohtani off the mound until 2025 but allow him to hit next season.

The Cubs vaulted up the oddsboard after rumblings that Ohtani could end up in Chicago if he does not sign with either L.A. team.

The Giants, followed closely by the Yankees, Mets, and Mariners, are a few of the other teams in the running to land Ohtani with a combined 54.2% chance. None of these teams played postseason baseball in 2023, but if any of them can sway the Japanese star, that would likely put them among the favorites to contend in 2024.

The Mariners - and their rich history of signing top Japanese players - are an interesting landing spot with +700 odds. Adding Ohtani to a lineup that already includes Julio Rodríguez would make Seattle a powerhouse in the AL West for years to come.

Finally, oddsmakers give the Angels a 9.1% chance of bringing their superstar back to play alongside Mike Trout. However, given their lack of success with those two in the lineup for the past six seasons and a messy end to Ohtani's stint in Anaheim, a reunion seems unlikely.

So, who do you think Ohtani will play for in 2024?

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