MLB Tuesday best bets: Bats to shine in Chicago
MLB is back in full swing, with every team set to take the field this evening.
With tons of attractive plays to comb through, let's take a closer look at a few of my favorites.
For one, the pitching matchup features a pair of players garnering better results than they deserve.
White Sox starter Lucas Giolito posted a respectable 3.77 ERA over the past 30 days. His FIP is quite a bit higher at 4.82, indicating he hasn't performed quite up to his usual standards.
Giolito has walked more than four batters per nine innings during that stretch while also conceding a pretty high line-drive rate of above 25%. Opposing batters are making good contact - the results just haven't been there.
It's a similar story with Tyler Anderson. He owns a 3.68 ERA and 4.56 FIP over the last 30 days. He's walked batters at the exact same rate as he's struck them out - never a good sign - while also conceding a ton of fly balls.
I'm not suggesting these two are due for extreme regression and will be taken out after a couple of innings. They just haven't performed as well as the counting numbers suggest, and that should catch up with them sooner rather than later.
The Angels are a top-10 scoring offense, and for all their faults, the White Sox have a couple of powerful bats who can really hit. There's enough talent on the field to take advantage of these starters.
The bullpens should also be reliable in an effort to get this game over the number. The Angels' pen ranks bottom five in FIP the past couple of weeks, while the White Sox are also in the bottom half of the league.
There are a lot of pathways for the two sides to create offense. Expect this game to go over the number.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-130)
Alex Verdugo over 1.5 total bases (-110)
Verdugo hits righties well overall and has quietly been as effective as almost anybody in the league when playing in Boston.
He owns a .457 wOBA and .303 ISO against right-handed pitching at home, both of which lead the team - by a mile - when looking at everyday players.
Verdugo is generating a lot of hard contact and very rarely striking out, which is a good recipe for success. That's unsurprisingly translated to remarkably strong results, with Verdugo owning a .364 batting average in Boston this season.
Ben Lively has pitched well for the Reds this year but has benefited from quite a bit of batted-ball luck. For whatever reason, hitters just aren't finding gaps right now. Verdugo excels at doing just that, so this is a good spot for things to change.
Ozzie Albies over 1.5 total bases (+105)
If Albies could face off against lefties every game, he'd be a contender for all major awards. That's no exaggeration.
The guy absolutely destroys left-handed pitching, posting the kind of numbers you'd see playing easy mode in MLB The Show.
Albies sports a .452 batting average versus left-handed arms. He has five homers and 11 extra-base hits in just 62 at-bats. Insane numbers.
He has the power and consistency to get the job done with just one swing of the bat. But there's also the very real possibility he can get there with multiple hits.
JP Sears owns a 4.70 ERA and 5.15 FIP, and he allows a lot of fly balls. Even a couple of at-bats against him could be enough for Albies.
If it's not, Albies can look forward to facing a steady stream of arms from the Athletics' league-worst bullpen when Sears leaves the game.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.