We started the week off on a positive note Monday night, hitting two of three best bets. Naturally, the heavily favored Angels let us down while we cashed a pair of total bases props for payouts of +105 and +135.
We'll look to build on a solid night with three more plays for the night ahead.
Astros (+150) @ Rays (-175)
The Rays are sizzling-hot. They've won six consecutive games and have outscored opponents by a whopping 28 runs in that span.
I like their chances of putting forth another strong showing Tuesday night, at least over the first half of the contest.
Drew Rasmussen has been nothing short of spectacular for the Rays this season. He owns a 2.01 ERA and a 2.51 WHIP, and he's struck out well over 30% of the batters he's faced.
He should be able to throw another quality start against the Astros. While they possess some lethal bats at the top of the lineup, their depth is lacking. Houston's overall numbers against righties are well below what you'd expect from a team of its caliber.
The Astros rank 25th in ISO versus right-handed pitching and have struck out at an above-average clip. That doesn't bode well for their chances against Rasmussen.
Tampa Bay looks to be in a significantly better spot offensively. The team leads the majors in wOBA, ISO, SLG%, and pretty much every other category against right-handed pitching.
The Rays are a very difficult team for Luis Garcia to try and slow down. His most recent start was a big step in the right direction, but his season numbers (4.18 FIP, 5.14 ERA) remain poor. I'm not sure a date with the league's No. 1 team is the time he'll change that.
Look for the Rays to maximize their pitching advantage and get out to an early lead.
Bet: Rays F5 -0.5 (-115)
Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases (+110)
To say that Olson excels against right-handed pitching would be an understatement. He dominates.
Olson owns a ridiculous .458 wOBA and .397 ISO versus righties this season. Both totals lead an Atlanta Braves team that has as much pop in its lineup as anybody.
Zooming out, Olson sits sixth in wOBA and third in ISO among 131 MLB players with at least 60 plate appearances. Very few have gotten on base or hit for power as well as Olson.
He has six doubles, six homers, and a triple through 23 games. That means in more than half his appearances, he's cleared this number with only one swing.
With his kind of power, and his ability to hit for average, he has multiple paths to victory here.
Teoscar Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Hernandez has struggled mightily against righties this season, owning a .222 batting average and hitting for little power. That's the bad news.
The good news is Hernandez is drawing a lefty today in Bailey Falter of the Phillies. Hernandez has been absolutely lethal against left-handed arms.
He's hitting .333 with three homers, which is a lot considering he's only had 18 at-bats versus lefties this campaign.
This isn't just smoke and mirrors over a small period. Hernandez posted a .413 wOBA and .363 ISO against lefties with the Blue Jays last season. Hitting left-handers is his bread and butter.
With a gettable lefty arm on the mound in a hitting-friendly ballpark, the stars are aligning for a big game from Hernandez.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
