2022 MLB Mock Draft: Predicting landing spots for top prospects

The 2022 MLB Draft gets underway July 17. Here's a look at what the first round could look like.

Each pick is accompanied by its league-mandated value, the total bonus pool for that particular team, and where that bonus pool ranks in MLB. Individual pick values are added up to calculate a team's total bonus pool. Clubs are allowed to sign prospects above (over slot) or below (under slot) the expected value of the pick but can't exceed their total bonus pool when signing all drafted players.

Every team will make at least one selection in the first round other than the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose first-round pick drops 10 spots as a result of exceeding the third threshold of the luxury tax. The New York Mets will also pick twice, earning a compensation pick for not signing 10th overall selection Kumar Rocker last year.

1. Orioles - Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS (Ga.)

Pick value: $8,846,900
Total bonus pool: $16,933,000 (1st)

We've got the best player on the board going to the Orioles but guessing what a Mike Elias-led team will do with a first overall pick is a fool's errand. Like it or not, Elias likes to use high picks to cut deals that benefit the club later in the draft, and it's worked out exceptionally well so far, helping the Astros land both Correa and McCullers in 2012.

More recently, he's used his top pick on Adley Rutschman and Heston Kjerstad. The former was the consensus top name on the board in 2019 and the latter shook up the 2020 event but he's progressed impressively - especially compared to his peers.

If not Jones, the Orioles seem to like high-ceiling college bats Jacob Berry, Brooks Lee, or Kevin Parada.

2. Diamondbacks - Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (Okla.)

Pick value: $8,189,400
Total bonus pool: $15,112,100 (2nd)

Drafting Matt Holliday's kid may feel unnecessary for the D-Backs considering they selected Jordan Lawlar in last year's draft, but potential generational shortstops don't just grow on trees. Jackson is one of the best hitters in this year's class, but Arizona could also pivot to Termarr Johnson or Parada instead.

3. Rangers - Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (Fla.)

Pick value: $7,591,600
Total bonus pool: $9,646,000 (14th)

The Rangers will almost certainly take Holliday if he falls to them at three, but if not, Green is a fantastic consolation prize if Texas decides on upside instead of a college bat like Parada or Berry. Green is the highly athletic spawn of former NFL Pro Bowl tight end Eric Green.

4. Pirates - Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (Fla.)

Pick value: $7,005,800
Total bonus pool: $13,741,300 (4th)

The Pirates are in a unique spot. They own a slot value barely lower than the Rangers but a bonus pool that dwarfs Texas' by more than $4 million. That could mean they get creative and muscle their way into landing one of the top three guys by offering more money than the Rangers can muster. If not, going with a 17-year-old already mashing at the JuCo level would be a huge addition to the system.

5. Nationals - Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech

Pick value: $6,497,700
Total bonus pool: $11,013,900 (6th)

Selecting Parada with the fifth pick would give the Nationals' farm system a potential heir apparent to Keibert Ruiz and that appears to be the direction Washington is going in. The Nationals are reportedly "all over" Parada, who has 20-25 homer pop and looks like a potential middle-of-the-order bat in the bigs.

6. Marlins - Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly

Pick value: $6,037,500
Total bonus pool: $10,491,700 (8th)

With Collier off the board, the Marlins are probably eyeballing Lee or Johnson to add to a farm system that already includes Kahlil Watson. While scouts are high on Johnson's left-handed bat, Lee is a polished switch-hitter who performed well with wood bats in the Cape Cod League. He also looks destined to move to third base, which would work well for a Marlins’ farm system lacking in depth at the position.

7. Cubs - Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (Ga.)

Pick value: $5,711,000
Total bonus pool: $10,098,100 (10th)

Honestly, Johnson could go anywhere between first and 10th. He's a highly skilled athlete, who is arguably the best prep slugger to hit the scene in a decade. But, it's rare to see clubs select a second baseman this early - the first second baseman wasn't picked until No. 33 last year - so the Cubs could pivot to Lee or Berry instead if either is still around. Jace Jung, another second baseman, is also an option.

8. Twins - Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech

Pick value: $5,442,400
Total bonus pool: $10,041,500 (12th)

Cross makes a lot of sense here, as this is around the spot in the draft that works best for his talent level and skill set, plus the Twins have a history of success drafting outfielders in recent memory - Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, and Brent Rooker (now with the Padres) come to mind.

9. Royals - Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS (Fla.)

Pick value: $5,202,900
Total bonus pool: $9,471,200 (15th)

Barriera made the somewhat controversial decision to shut himself down in April to preserve his health prior to the draft. There's a good chance no pitcher goes in the top 10 and any number of names could be the first arms off the board. But the Royals are no strangers to taking southpaws earlier than other clubs expect. Kansas City surprised at last year's draft when they selected Frank Mozzicato seventh overall.

10. Rockies - Jacob Berry, 1B/3B, Louisiana State

Pick value: $4,983,000
Total bonus pool: $13,660,700 (5th)

With the fifth-highest bonus pool among all teams, the Rockies are well positioned to scoop up any prospect who finds himself in free fall, so perhaps they wind up with an ascendant talent like Green, Lee, or Johnson. However, they also seemingly like Berry and would stop him from going outside the top 10. He leaves something to be desired defensively, but his bat would play well at Coors Field.

11. Mets - Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech

Pick value: $4,780,700
Total bonus pool: $13,955,700 (3rd)

With the third-highest bonus pool and a pair of picks in the teens, the Mets are the biggest wild card on draft day. Here, we have the younger brother of Josh Jung, who was drafted eighth overall by the Rangers in 2019. A few months ago, it would've been crazy to suggest Jace would slip outside of the top 10, but some struggles have soured a few teams, so the Mets could stop his slide.

12. Tigers - Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS (Nev.)

Pick value: $4,590,300
Total bonus pool: $8,029,300 (19th)

Carl Crawford's son seems like a perfect fit for the Tigers, who love to employ athletic outfielders capable of roaming the cavernous outfield of Comerica Park. Justin is one of the best pure athletes in the draft and possesses elite speed, just like his pops used to. There's a good chance Detroit selects an arm like Brock Porter if Crawford is off the board.

13. Angels - Kumar Rocker, RHP

Pick value: $4,412,500
Total bonus pool: $7,028,100 (23rd)

This is likely the absolute highest Rocker could go. However, the Angels are fresh off a draft where all they selected were pitchers with each of their 20 picks and they have a chance to add who is unquestionably the closest to major-league ready in this year's class. And, if any team is drafting for need, it should be the Angels. The Halos don't have a lot to spend compared to some teams, but the 22-year-old might not be difficult to sign this time around; sitting out another year after the Mets fiasco would be a nightmare scenario for him.

14. Mets - Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary HS (Mich.)

Pick value: $4,243,800

Porter is the highest-ranked prep ace on the board, and those guys are used to going top five. The Mets have a ton of flexibility thanks to having two picks, so they're very likely going to react to what other teams do, but grabbing Porter - and going hitter/pitcher - makes a lot of sense.

15. Padres - Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (Ga.)

Pick value: $4,085,000
Total bonus pool: $10,094,200 (11th)

Lesko had a chance to go much earlier than this but Tommy John surgery has caused him to plummet. The Padres are typically a team that doesn't care about that, though, and never shy away from taking the best pitcher on the board.

16. Guardians - Jett Williams, SS/OF, Rockwall-Heath HS (Texas)

Pick value: $3,937,600
Total bonus pool: $9,986,200 (13th)

Williams is as toolsy as they come, with great speed and exceptional plate discipline and coverage. There's some bust potential here, but the fact he could likely manage shortstop, second base, or center field mitigates that.

17. Phillies - Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen HS (Nev.)

Pick value: $3,794,800
Total bonus pool: $6,310,400 (27th)

The Phillies love their high school pitchers but the most tantalizing ones - Barriera and Porter - are already gone in this scenario. Of course, Phillies farmhand Andrew Painter - selected 13th overall last year - would certainly like to have Barriera, who's an old bullpen buddy. But that likely doesn't factor into the front office's thinking.

18. Reds - Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida

Pick value: $3,659,800
Total bonus pool: $10,799,700 (7th)

Thompson at 18 to the Reds may seem a touch high for the Florida product, who is projecting as a late first-round, potential early second-round pick. Maybe they weaponize their substantial bonus pool to land someone who’s falling. Alternatively, Cincinnati could wind up going under-slot here and using their overages later on.

19. Athletics - Zach Neto, SS, Campbell

Pick value: $3,531,200
Total bonus pool: $8,320,200 (17th)

This would be a rather calamitous fall for Neto, who some see as a top-10 talent. With an incredibly unconventional swing and a solid all-around game, not many players scream A's quite like Neto.

20. Braves - Daniel Susac, C, Arizona

Pick value: $3,409,200
Total bonus pool: $10,224,300 (9th)

The younger brother of Andrew Susac - who was selected in the second round of the 2011 draft by the Giants - has a knack for throwing out runners and posted a 1.012 OPS this year but might need to work on his receiving. Lucky for Daniel, that's the Braves' specialty.

21. Mariners - Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga

Pick value: $3,292,900
Total bonus pool: $7,258,200 (21st)

The Mariners have proven successful at drafting college arms in the first round, nabbing Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock in recent years, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them go this direction again. Hughes has electric stuff and Seattle isn't shy about employing former Gonzaga arms, with Marco Gonzales a stalwart in its rotation for the past six seasons.

22. Cardinals - Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison

Pick value: $3,182,200
Total bonus pool: $6,845,900 (24th)

DeLauter's tools and 60-grade power are too much to pass up for the Cardinals, who used a first-round pick to draft a similarly built outfielder in 2016 named Dylan Carlson. St. Louis should have plenty of other college outfield options if DeLauter is off the board, with Dylan Beavers, Jordan Beck, and Sterlin Thompson as possibilities if they're still around.

23. Blue Jays - Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny HS (Pa.)

Pick value: $3,076,900
Total bonus pool: $8,372,100 (16th)

The Blue Jays haven't had much success using their first-round pick on prep players, but Young is drawing comps to Adam Frazier and Stephen Drew thanks to his excellent bat-to-ball skills. Adding Young to their pipeline would help Toronto recoup at the position after trading Austin Martin to the Twins in the Jose Berrios deal last season.

24. Red Sox - Tucker Toman, OF, Hammond HS (S.C.)

Pick value: $2,976,400
Total bonus pool: $8,082,600 (18th)

This would be early to hear Toman's name and perhaps a college bat or an arm goes here instead. However, the Red Sox have shown a distinct interest in high school hitters lately and the 18-year-old switch-hitter shows significant upside at the plate.

25. Yankees - Dylan Beavers, OF, California

Pick value: $2,880,800
Total bonus pool: $6,428,600 (26th)

The Yankees have been linked to college bats all spring and Beavers is a potential five-tool talent as a left-handed bat. He reminds some scouts of Christian Yelich. New York's future outfield would look incredibly promising with Beavers, Jasson Dominguez, and Everson Pereira in the pipeline.

26. White Sox - Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma

Pick value: $2,789,400
Total bonus pool: $6,292,500 (28th)

Horton has some of the best stuff in the draft and is only this low because he underwent Tommy John surgery. The White Sox will have to be more careful with Horton after rushing 2020 first-rounder Garrett Crochet to the bigs. Crochet underwent Tommy John surgery in April.

27. Brewers - Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee

Pick value: $2,701,900
Total bonus pool: $7,074,700 (22nd)

The Brewers love their analytically inclined pitchers and perhaps they eye one of many options there with this pick. However, they also do favor polished, all-around college bats and Beck fits that bill as a solid hitter with good speed and the defensive ability to stick in center.

28. Astros - Blade Tidwell, RHP, Tennessee

Pick value: $2,621,700
Total bonus pool: $6,840,600 (25th)

If drafts were done by online hype consensus, Tidwell would be a top-five pick thanks to lighting up the radar gun on multiple occasions with the Volunteers. He's got the stuff but lacks the consistency and command, only starting to strike people out at an above-average rate this past year. The Astros are known to take on pitching projects.

29. Rays - Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State

Pick value: $2,548.900
Total bonus pool: $7,799,200 (20th)

Hjerpe is the unsung pitching prospect of the draft, mostly because no one pitch looks particularly special. However, he still struck out 161 batters compared to 23 walks this year for OSU, and that'll check a lot of boxes for teams who favor results over tools.

30. Giants - Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama

Pick value: $2,486,800
Total bonus pool: $5,796,400 (29th)

A high variance pick on draft day due to a lack of consistency during the year followed by a strong showing at the combine, Prielipp could go much earlier or much later than this. The lefty has a great fastball and plus slider. He has a solid floor as a reliable late reliever while his ceiling is a No. 1 starter.