MLB weekend best bets: Bieber, Alcantara headline pitching duels
We hit a snag earlier this week with a 1-2 record but are still 7-2 over the last 10 days as we head into the final seven days of September. Here are our favorite plays over the weekend.
White Sox-Indians under 8 (-105)
Sept. 24, 7:10 p.m. ET
This is the type of matchup that under bettors dream of, as former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber faces rising star Dylan Cease with a total that should be a half-run lower, at least.
Bieber hasn't been otherworldly like he was last season, but the Indians ace has still allowed three or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 14 starts, and he's lasted at least six innings in 11 of them. He's also induced at least 13 swinging strikes in all but one start, even as his overall strikeout numbers dip.
Cease has coaxed 14 or more whiffs in four of his last five starts for the White Sox, striking out a combined 37 batters against seven walks and three earned runs in those four contests. He's coming off a five-inning shutout performance against the Rangers and should be able to quiet Cleveland's bats in this one.
Marlins-Rays under (TBD)
Sept. 25, 6:10 p.m.
Sandy Alcantara has been the most profitable under bet in baseball, and he's back on the mound for this one after his six-inning, one-run effort was nearly squandered by the Marlins' pen in a 6-5 win.
Miami's ace has still posted a ridiculous 21-8-1 record to the under with an MLB-best 12.47 units returned on the season. His 1.54 ERA in his last eight starts trails only Max Scherzer (1.37) over that stretch, while the Rays have averaged 3.6 runs in their last 10 games with a 7-3 record to the under.
The Marlins' bats will have their hands full with Shane McClanahan, who was touching 100 mph on his fastball and struck out seven in Sunday's return from a brief IL stint. Miami has plated three or fewer runs in 14 of its last 21 games and would be lucky to hit that mark Saturday.
Blue Jays -1.5 (TBD) @ Twins
Sept. 26, 2:10 p.m.
A couple of recent losses behind subpar starters won't deter me from backing the Blue Jays, who remain the hottest team in baseball in pursuit of the final AL wild-card spot. Even after back-to-back losses, Toronto is still a league-leading 16-6 in September with an MLB-best 2.27 average run differential in those contests.
The Blue Jays are a perfect 4-0 in Alek Manoah's four September starts and a stellar 14-4 on the season, backing him up with an average of 6.0 runs of support. That level of run production is hard to rely on, but the rookie has done his part with a 3.36 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, and .194 average allowed - the final stat ranking 10th among all pitchers with at least 90 innings.
The Twins' free-swinging lineup is already a poor matchup against Manoah, who has allowed just four home runs across his last 13 starts. The bigger issue for Minnesota might be rookie hurler Griffin Jax, who has surrendered 16 home runs in 12 MLB starts to inflate his ERA to 6.52. He'll struggle to last five innings against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Jays' red-hot bats.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.