AL division winners odds: Best bets, sleepers

It's important not to get big eyes when dissecting the 2021 MLB divisional odds.

Every team had a shot during last year's 60-game slate, and the Marlins - the Marlins! - making the postseason is living proof. But with the return to the traditional 162-game schedule, expect the cream to rise to the top and these high-priced long shots to fizzle out.

Let's start with the American League in the first of our two-part series. Here's a sleeper and best bet for each division.

AL West

Sleeper: Angels (+400)

The Angels have employed the best player in the universe with little to show for it. With both the Astros and Athletics' rosters taking hits, L.A. has an unbelievable opportunity not only to close the gap in the AL West but win its first division crown since 2014.

However, the Halos have problems of their own.

They no longer have Andrelton Simmons, whose defense is legitimately irreplaceable; FanGraphs' Steamer projections have only two non-pitchers accounting for more than 2.0 WAR; and not one starter in the rotation is estimated to have an ERA south of 4.30, per the same metric.

I'd need a lot more coin on a franchise that routinely does nothing.

Best bet: Athletics (+120)

That leaves Houston as the most realistic challenger. But with the core of the 2017 title-winning team fractured, give me the Athletics.

Ah, PECOTA is down on them again, you say? Good. I hope Oakland wins 130 games this year.

AL Central

Sleeper: Indians (+700)

Jose Ramirez is a legitimate MVP candidate. The rotation, although gutted via trades and free agency, still has the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Shane Bieber and plenty of depth behind him. The Indians will struggle to hit consistently without Francisco Lindor in the fray, but, if anything, Franmil Reyes crushing the ball into orbit will never get old.

Best bet: Twins (+140)

A three-headed monster of Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, and Michael Pineda probably doesn't get the job done in October, but that shouldn't worry the two-time reigning division champs. The Twins shattered records on their way to a league-leading 307 home runs in the last full campaign and have one of the most nightmarish lineups in the majors. The addition of Simmons gives Minnesota the best defensive shortstop in baseball, while Byron Buxton projects as the third-best defensive center fielder - that'll certainly compensate for the inevitable woes the pitching staff will face.

AL East

Sleeper and best bet: Blue Jays (+350)

It's easy to get all hot and bothered regarding the Blue Jays when Marcus Semien projects as the fourth-best hitter. The franchise went out this winter and landed 2019's third-most valuable offensive player - and that was seven days after signing three-time All-Star George Springer to a long-term deal.

And it's not like the lineup necessarily needed a makeover in the first place.

Toronto jumped from No. 23 in scoring in 2019 to No. 8 last season. Teoscar Hernandez was in the top four percent of the majors in both exit velocity and hard-hit rate, while teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. graded out in the top seven. Other parts of the core - Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio - are still intact for a lineup that realistically could feature nine players with at least 20 homers.

The Yankees are a difficult investment at that price, over that long of a stretch, while the Rays lost a handful of key assets from last year's World Series run.

If you want a fun futures bet, take the Blue Jays at +350.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.