In this five-part series, theScore's MLB editors break down the pros and cons of signing the top free agents in this year's class, and predict where they'll end up. Today, we're looking at Jake Arrieta, the 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner who spent the last five seasons with the Chicago Cubs.
Pros and cons
Pro: Proven commodity
Few could have imagined Arrieta turning into the pitcher he is today when news of his trade to the Chicago Cubs broke on July 2, 2013. Since arriving on the North Side, Arrieta has morphed from an unsteady project into an ace, an All-Star, and a soldier on the mound. Since 2014, he has compiled 18.5 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, ranking fifth among all starting pitchers. Only Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Clayton Kershaw have compiled more in that span. A top-five pitcher doesn't hit the open market at the near-peak of his powers very often, and Arrieta is the kind of arm that contending teams dream of employing every fifth day. His presence in a rotation can change a team's fortunes, and with few other aces available this winter, Arrieta - with his Cy Young Award and World Series ring - stands out even more.
Con: Wants too much money at his age
How much do you pay a star pitcher who's about to turn 32 and is coming off a bit of a rough season? That's the question teams must ask themselves, and, even in a generally weak free-agent class, there's reason to balk at cutting that large check. All throughout this past season, Arrieta had to deal with questions about his declining velocity, and eventually his agent Scott Boras had to defend his client in the media. Amid those concerns, Arrieta also battled through a few injuries and finished off his worst season as a Cub. Cy Young awards and playoff performances can only take you so far, especially when you're a late bloomer who's just about to start the back nine of your career.
Pro: Still cheap by "ace" standards
There's a chance, even if it's slim given the Boras factor, that the money and age questions could work in the teams' favors. While the seven richest contracts ever given to starting pitchers have all been signed in the last five years, Arrieta's deal likely won't be in that range. Surely even Boras and his magic hands can't turn Arrieta into a $175-million-plus man, but the awards, no-hitters, All-Star appearances, and playoff pedigree he'll bring to his next team have to count for something. Thus, any team looking for an ace who can't afford Yu Darvish could come to Arrieta as a reasonable alternative by free-agent ace standards. Even if he were to get $100 million, that's still a relatively team-friendly deal for a former Cy Young winner, and a return to form in 2018 and beyond could turn him into an outright steal once again.
Best fits
St. Louis Cardinals
One year after poaching Dexter Fowler away from their longtime rivals, the Cardinals have a chance to deal an even bigger blow to the Cubs by wooing Arrieta. Beyond the fact that Arrieta has owned the Cardinals in recent years, his familiarity with the NL Central and general dominance of the division would have to make St. Louis feel good about acquiring him. Additionally, there's a long-term fit in the rotation with free agent Lance Lynn likely on the way out, and Mike Leake's contract having already been dealt. Adam Wainwright's deal also expires after next season, giving them even more long-term financial flexibility. With Arrieta in the fold, the Cardinals would also be able to get youngsters Jack Flaherty and/or Luke Weaver a little extra seasoning in the minors until it's time to replace Wainwright in 2019.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers, last year's biggest surprise, almost knocked the Cubs off in 2017. Arrieta could help them finish the job. Lest you think he may be too expensive for small-market Milwaukee, the team now has money to play with. Matt Garza's off the books, and their 2018 payroll currently sits at just north of $65 million, according to Cot's Contracts, with only one big-ticket deal left in Ryan Braun. Like in St. Louis, the familiarity factors apply to Milwaukee, but another big factor could be that Arrieta absolutely loves pitching in Miller Park. In five starts at the Brewers' stadium, he owns a 2.03 ERA and 0.806 WHIP while allowing just three homers. Adding him would give the Brewers the best chance at dethroning the Cubs in 2018, and if they're serious about building on last year's success, they'll need to make sure he's on their side going forward.
Los Angeles Dodgers
With Yu Darvish likely headed elsewhere and the Dodgers, as always, having money to burn, the door is potentially open for a Kershaw-Arrieta tandem at Chavez Ravine. Arrieta would stand out in a predominantly left-handed rotation, and he'd give the Dodgers long-term rotational balance once youngster Walker Buehler is ready for a full-time role. In the short term, he would improve an already powerful club tenfold and give it a better chance at finally getting over that World Series championship hump. This is the perfect time for the Dodgers to flex their financial muscles and make sure he doesn't get away from them as they push for that elusive crown.
Prediction
Arrieta signs a four-year, $110-million deal with the Cardinals that includes a pair of option years.
Check out the previous installments in this series:
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)
