2026 Formula 1 predictions: Sizing up the new season
Formula 1 returns with this weekend's Australian Grand Prix. theScore editors Michael Bradburn, Gianluca Nesci, Daniel Valente, and Brandon Wile get us ready with a series of predictions for the 2026 season.
Nothing shows the unpredictability of these new regulations like four different picks for the 2026 drivers' champion, none of them being reigning titleholder Lando Norris. All of these candidates would be terrific stories - a Leclerc championship would set off a month-long celebration in Maranello, while Antonelli would be the youngest drivers' champion ever. However, Russell is my pick. The Mercedes pilot drove like a champion last season. With the machinery to finally translate his performances into the results they deserve, he'll bring the title back to the Silver Arrows. - Valente
Ferrari is our favorite to win the constructors' title, with most of us expecting a close fight between the Scuderia and Mercedes. There's one pick for McLaren to repeat; considering the team is running the same power unit as Mercedes and has an excellent track history of development, that wouldn't be a shock. It's hard for me to come off of Ferrari, though. If a refocused Lewis Hamilton can turn back the clock even a little, the Ferrari tandem will be more dependable than Russell - who's never been in a season-long title fight - and work-in-progress Antonelli. - Valente
More predictions
Lewis Hamilton wins at least 3 races
Finally freed from the ground-effect cars, Hamilton rediscovers his fire thanks to these new regulations. Dejected media sessions after disappointing performances are replaced by scenes of a victorious Hamilton once again thanking the team and factory on his onboard radio. In one season, the seven-time champion wins more races than he did over the previous four years combined (two).
Gabriel Bortoleto and Oliver Bearman get podiums
It's time for two teams to start their trophy collections. Haas and Audi score their first-ever F1 podiums in 2026 thanks to emerging talents Bearman and Bortoleto. Haas looks as good as any midfield team already, while Audi's status as a factory team means development could be rapid. That doesn't mean the second-year drivers will earn those podiums on pure pace - they'll likely need some chaos given the established top four of Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull. But Bearman and Bortoleto should be positioned to take advantage.
Aston Martin finishes last, Fernando Alonso jumps to Alpine midseason
Barring a miracle, 2026 is essentially curtains for Aston Martin. Even if Honda and the team overcome their reliability issues to produce respectable pace, it may be a while - perhaps years - before Aston Martin can overcome the gap to the front-runners. That won't suit the savvy Alonso. He'll use the prospect of retiring midseason as leverage to facilitate a move to Alpine, which needs a driver to maximize its competitive Mercedes engine. Just like old times, Alonso is driving for Flavio Briatore once again.
Max Verstappen doesn't win a race
You have to go all the way back to Verstappen's rookie season with Toro Rosso in 2015 to find the last year the Dutch driver didn't win an F1 race. Verstappen's 10-season streak of winning at least one grand prix comes to an end in 2026, although it's not all bad news for Red Bull: The team's first power unit is miles ahead of expectation, and Verstappen cracks his share of podiums. However, the team is just a little too far behind Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren to put him on the top step.
Monaco will be one of the best races of the season
This new generation of F1 cars that are overly dependent on electrical energy might appear awkward and maybe even laughable at a few tracks. Strangely enough, if there's one place they might look a lot better than their predecessors, it's Monaco. Slightly smaller, lighter, and more agile cars will be a perfect match for the principality. No one will mistake the streets of Monaco for your local karting track, but the 2026 grand prix will provide the best racing the circuit has seen in years (even if that's a very low bar).
Daniel Valente is theScore's lead Formula 1 writer. His expertise is breaking down data and discovering unique stats. Follow Daniel on X at @F1GuyDan.