LONDON (AP) — Could winning the Formula 1 title in 2025 actually hurt a team?
That's the dilemma facing F1's team principals as sweeping regulation changes for 2026 threaten to upend the competitive order.
"Whoever continues to develop will probably win the championship, but you'll pay the price in 2026," Mercedes driver George Russell said Tuesday.
An F1 title fight can often come down to developing and refining a car throughout the year. Mid-season upgrades were crucial to McLaren winning the constructors' title for the first time in 26 years in 2024, while Red Bull's late tweaks helped Max Verstappen defend his drivers' title.
The problem is that teams that start 2025 poorly could choose to abandon development work on the current car and focus all energy on next year, which brings sweeping changes to cars and engines alike.
A head start could yield big gains for years to come.
How to win when the rules change
"It's going to be a very, very busy year for us," said Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, who is balancing Verstappen's bid for a fifth consecutive title in 2025, the team's 2026 project, and a new Ford engine for next year. F1's spending cap means "it's the same money for everybody, but you will apply your resource accordingly," Horner said.
Red Bull was the undisputed winner the last time there was a big regulation change, even though it had just won the drivers' title with Verstappen.
Red Bull's 2022 car embraced ground-effect aerodynamics far better than the opposition, and especially its 2021 title rival Mercedes, whose design was visually striking but way off the pace. Red Bull has won 47 races since then, Mercedes just five.
Even the standings enforce future suffering as the price for present success. The worst-performing teams are allowed extra time to develop aerodynamics in vast and costly wind tunnels. The champion gets the least.
Red Bull was third in the constructors' standings last season, largely because of Sergio Perez's run of poor form, so it gets a little more wind tunnel time this season than McLaren or Ferrari.
"Particularly in a regulation change, that's always going to be quite useful," Horner said.
New challengers emerge
Several ambitious teams have little to lose from gambling on 2026.
Williams driver Alex Albon said Red Bull's advantage last time explains why he's already testing out ideas for 2026.
"It's taken until now for teams to catch up, finally. It just shows you the importance of getting a head start at the very beginning, and I think that's why you're going to see this awkward year," Albon said.
"In the simulator, what we're doing, there's already a focus into next year. It seems crazy to say it when we haven't even turned a wheel yet in this year's competition."
Aston Martin has signed star car designer Adrian Newey, who developed Red Bull's dominant car the last time the rules changed. Newey joins next month with a focus on 2026 and the team has invested heavily to transform its factory.
Sauber is in what driver Nico Hülkenberg called a "building year" before rebranding as Audi, and General Motors is creating a team from scratch under the Cadillac brand for 2026.
An extra challenge for rookies
The upcoming change is another obstacle for the many rookies in F1 in 2025. Much of what they learn will soon be out of date.
"Obviously next year is going to be completely different," said 18-year-old Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who's making his F1 debut with Mercedes. "I'm going to try to attack all the time and try to make as much experience as possible to then be even more prepared for '26."
