Why England, Belgium are better off losing their final group-stage game
Thursday's group-stage-capping clash between England and Belgium, a matchup that at once appeared tantalizing, could produce the most uninspiring and cynical play we've seen at the World Cup.
That's because the two teams are likely better off losing the match - and they know it.
Both England and Belgium have already clinched a berth in the round of 16 as the top two finishers in Group G, so their matchup Thursday will merely decide which team wins the group and, thus, on which sides of the bracket the two are slotted.
The prize for winning Group G? A path to the World Cup final that likely runs through Brazil in the quarter-final, then likely France, Argentina, or Portgual in the semi-final. All four possibilities rank among the top seven teams on the planet, according to FIFA's rankings.
Meanwhile, Thursday's loser will get a far easier path, with no possibility of playing a team ranked higher than No. 6 in the world (Switzerland) in the quarter-final, plus a semi-final opponent that will rank no higher than 10th (Spain) and as low as 70th (Russia).
Never in recent history have the two halves of the World Cup bracket been this disparate, so England and Belgium might be wise to seize upon this rare opportunity to win by losing.
Don't expect to see goalkeepers stepping aside of shots, however. Some level of decorum will be maintained.
"We want to win," England manager Gareth Southgate said, according to the Guardian's Daniel Taylor. "That would mean we top the group and then we can move forward. I go back to the fact we're trying to develop a winning mentality and I can't imagine a situation where I talk to the players about anything else. It just wouldn't be authentic for what we've been trying to build for the last two years."
Belgium boss Roberto Martinez suggested his strategy would be focused on resting key players.
"We have qualified and that was the priority," said Martinez, according to the Guardian's Martha Kelner. "Now we need to look at our individual players. We want to perform well but the priority is not to win. That is the reality, we have put ourselves in this situation, we wanted to qualify and we have done that."
Early lineup projections indicate we could see the majority of Belgium's starting XI swapped out, and it wouldn't be surprising to see England follow suit.
If England and Belgium are tied after 90 minutes, the group winner will be decided by the "fair play" tiebreaker, which counts the number of yellow and red cards each team has received in the tournament.
In other words, don't be surprised if Thursday's affair is a chippy one, with both sides looking to nab a few extra yellows.