FedEx St. Jude betting preview: Can Young win consecutive titles?
Leg one of the PGA TOUR's playoffs begins this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis.
A field of 69 players will take on TPC Southwind to open the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Only Rory McIlroy is skipping the postseason's opening tournament with a $20-million purse.
The course
- 7,288 yards, par 70
- Bermuda-grass greens
- Water in play on 11 holes
- Second shot course where distance off the tee isn't a separator
Past winners at TPC Southwind
2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17) over Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele
2023: Lucas Glover (-15) over Patrick Cantlay
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) over Sepp Straka
2021: Abraham Ancer (-16) over Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama
2020: Justin Thomas (-13) over four players
2019: Brooks Koepka (-16) over Webb Simpson
2018: Justin Thomas (-15) over Kyle Stanley
The favorite
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +280 |
Scottie Scheffler is heavily favored at a very short +280, an implied probability of 26.3%. He's placed inside the top 10 each of his last 11 starts and collected three wins (a 27.2% win rate) over that span. If you believe he can sustain his current pace, backing him at +280 is a fair price to take. However, you'll likely get better odds during the tournament and worst case, pay a very similar price if he gets off to a hot start, making the +280 pre-tournament wager avoidable.
The next tier
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +1400 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2200 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2500 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | +2500 |
| Russell Henley | +2500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2500 |
| Aaron Rai | +3000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +3000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3000 |
| Sepp Straka | +3000 |
| Ben Griffin | +3500 |
| Corey Conners | +3500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3500 |
| Chris Gotterup | +4000 |
| Harris English | +4000 |
| Cameron Young | +4000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +4000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +4000 |
The 69-man field condenses the betting board considerably, providing a large list of players priced +4000 and shorter.
Xander Schauffele sits atop the list of Scheffler's competition at +1400. Schauffele played very well overseas, recording a T8 at the Scottish Open and a T7 at the Open Championship, and he seems to be rounding into the form we saw from him last year after an injury derailed the start of his 2025. Schauffele was also runner-up in Memphis last year, so seeing him in the mix on Sunday shouldn't be a surprise.
You could make a strong case for nearly every golfer in the +2000s. Tommy Fleetwood may be the exception, though, since he cannot seem to get over the finish line. That said, people made the same argument against Cameron Young, who just won the Wyndham Championship.
Collin Morikawa, Aaron Rai, Sepp Straka, and Corey Conners feel overvalued and shouldn't be considered at their current odds. That applies to Jordan Spieth and Keegan Bradley at +4000, too.
Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, and Young stand out the most, so we'll look at them more below.
Picks
Bet: Viktor Hovland to win (+2500)
Hovland had a disappointing Open Championship but finished T11 the week prior at the Scottish Open, where he gained 7.3 strokes on approach shots. He's only lost strokes with his irons once in 2025 - at Royal Portrush, his last start.
The Norwegian has played TPC Southwind three times, finishing as a runner-up last year and recording two other top-20 results. He's gained strokes on approach every time he's competed in Memphis and found success on the greens. Chipping isn't overly complicated at TPC Southwind, either, which will help hide Hovland's biggest weakness and allow his ball-striking to separate him from the field.
Bet: Ludvig Aberg to win (+2500)
The case for Hovland is the same as the one for Ludvig Aberg. The Swede is a ball-striking machine, but he sometimes struggles around the greens. It's unlikely Aberg will find himself in tricky up-and-down situations often, especially if he continues to hit the ball as well as he is.
Aberg gained 6.4 and 4.8 strokes tee to green in his two starts in Europe (Scottish Open and Open Championship) and has gained at least 4.8 strokes tee to green in four of his last six starts. If the putter heats up a bit, he'll be in contention come Sunday.
Bet: Cameron Young to win (+4000)
Winning back-to-back tournaments on the PGA TOUR is tough, but it's not impossible. Lucas Glover pulled off the Wyndham-FedEx St. Jude double two years ago, and Young is playing well enough to be able to repeat the feat.
Young gained 10 strokes putting en route to his first career PGA TOUR victory, but he also gained 8.4 strokes tee to green. He's turned into a great putter, and his ball-striking seemed to have clicked last week. Now that all aspects of his game are firing, +4000 is a great price for someone motivated to finish the season strong and make the American Ryder Cup team.