PGA Championship forecaddie: Running analysis of Round 2 at Quail Hollow

Stay tuned throughout the day as theScore keeps you updated with insights and analysis from Round 1 of the PGA Championship.

Round 2 of the PGA Championship is in the books. Jhonattan Vegas holds a two-shot lead over a trio of players, with world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler lurking three shots behind.

Below is our running analysis of the day, where we focused on the leaders and those battling to make the cut. A handful of marquee players snuck inside the 1-over cutline, including Rory McIlroy and defending champion Xander Schauffele. (All times ET)

8:30 p.m. - Quail Hollow played slightly easier on Day 2. The scoring average was 72.45 compared to Thursday's 72.76, and there was no scoring difference between the morning and afternoon wave of players.

Here are some strokes-gained data to help highlight how the players atop the leaderboard got there.

Vegas has been rock solid tee-to-green and with his putter. The shocking part is he's shown few signs of life prior to this week. He's also played in only 16 majors during his career and made the cut six times. Despite being a PGA TOUR veteran, he's in uncharted territory.

Matthieu Pavon's form has also been suspect. He hasn't finished inside the top 40 on the PGA TOUR this season and has lost strokes tee-to-green in six consecutive events.

Matt Fitzpatrick and Max Homa are also surprises. Neither had been playing their best golf before the PGA Championship, but they do have the pedigree to win a major. They are easily Scheffler's stiffest competition at the top of the leaderboard.

With that said, this is Scheffler's tournament to take. He hasn't putted great through two rounds but has been brilliant tee-to-green. He's the +200 favorite with Bryson DeChambeau (-3) next on the oddsboard.

7:05 p.m. - The cut is locked in at 1-over. Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, and Justin Thomas are among those heading home early.

7:00 p.m. - McIlroy, Scheffler, and Schauffele all secure a weekend tee time. McIlroy bogeys his final hole - his fourth bogey on the back nine - to card a 2-under 69. Schauffele posts an even-par 71, and Scheffler fires a 68 despite missing two birdie putts inside six feet on the back nine.

6:50 p.m. - Off the hospitality tent! Needing a bogey at worst to make the cut, Rory McIlroy's drive bounces off the roof of a hospitality tent and lands on the bank of the creek running along the 18th fairway. This lucky break may have saved McIlroy's chances at the weekend.

6:20 p.m. - Si Woo Kim makes an improbable ace on the par-3 6th, a monstrous 252-yard hole. He vaults into a tie for fourth thanks to his 6-under round.

6:10 p.m. - Scheffler is in absolute cruise control. He's doing nothing outstanding, but he's plotting along beautifully, sitting at 5-under for the tournament and three shots back of the lead. He followed up his lone bogey of the day on No. 13 with back-to-back birdies, and heads to the "Green Mile" (Nos. 16-18) as the +250 tournament favorite.

5:30 p.m. - Schauffele is in danger of missing only his fourth cut in a major championship, and first since the 2022 Masters. A missed cut would also end his streak of 12 straight major finishes inside the top 20. Schauffele is 2-over through 13, and the cut is a coin flip between +1 and +2.

5:10 p.m. - The cutline is trending toward 1-over. DataGolf projects +1 has a 70.1% chance, meaning Lowry, Straka, and Corey Conners are all battling to make the weekend.

4:55 p.m. - The leaderboard may not be the most appealing, but the oddsboard suggests this tournament will be won by a star.

4:25 p.m. - McIlroy makes the turn at 3-under for the day to get back to even for the tournament. He hit only four of nine greens in regulation on the front side but still made three birdies and was perfect at scrambling. He has to tighten up his approach play on the back, especially through Quail Hollow's tough finishing stretch.

3:35 p.m. - Fitzpatrick has been in a slump, with only one top-10 finish on the PGA TOUR since last year's PGA Championship. He lost strokes on approach shots in seven of eight tournaments to start the year, but does seem to have turned a corner with his irons. He ranks 17th in strokes gained: approach so far, sitting in a tie for seventh at 4-under

2:45 p.m. - Vegas makes double-bogey on his final hole to fall back to 8-under for the tournament, good for a two-shot lead. His odds drop from +750 to +1200.

2:25 p.m. - This leaderboard is a tough one to figure out. It's full of players who showed absolutely no form coming into the week. Vegas has missed three of his last four cuts, with one top-30 finish in his last nine starts. Max Homa's struggles are well-documented. He's played the weekend once in a tournament with a cut, and that's when he finished T12 at the Masters. Pavon (-6) hasn't finished inside the top 40 this year, and Luke Donald (-5) is a part-time player.

1:53 p.m. - The marquee group of McIlroy, Scheffler, and Schauffele has teed off. Scheffler remains the betting favorite at +330, while Schauffele (+1) is +4500 and McIlroy (+3), who likely needs to shoot 1-under to make the cut, is +2200.

1:25 p.m. - If you think you're seeing more birdies than Round 1, that's because you are. Friday's scoring average (72.22) is half a stroke easier than Thursday's.

1:10 p.m. - Aberg joins Thomas in the clubhouse at 3-over after posting a disappointing 75. They will need a lot of help if they're going to make the weekend.

12:50 p.m. - Thomas misses a 15-footer on his final hole by inches to finish the day at 3-over par. He has a 7.6% chance of making the weekend, per DataGolf.

12:35 p.m. - Aberg makes a costly bogey on the par-5 seventh. He'll likely need to play the final two holes at 1-under to make the weekend. Justin Thomas is in the same boat, needing to birdie his final hole of the day.

12:25 p.m. - Homa taps in for par on his final hole to post a 7-under 64. His sensational lap around Quail Hollow marks his lowest round in a major. Homa ranks first in strokes gained: off the tee and fifth in putting for Round 2.

12:15 p.m. - First-round leader Vegas is 1-under through 10 and holds a three-shot edge over six players. Despite having no success in major championships, he doesn't appear to be going away.

11:10 a.m. - The cut has a 60.6% chance of being 2-over, according to DataGolf. Thomas (+2), Aberg (+2), Matsuyama (+2), and Joaquin Niemann (+1) are all on the course and fighting to make the weekend.

10:40 a.m. - Homa is flying up the leaderboard and the oddsboard. He's 7-under through 12 and has moved from +50000 (bet $1 to win $500) to +1200 thanks to his torrid start.

9:55 a.m. - It's cutline day, and our eyes will be locked in on who's in and who's out. DataGolf projects a 54.3% chance the cut lands at 2-over, with a 23.1% likelihood that it moves to 1-over and a 19.7% chance it stretches to 2-over.

9:30 a.m. - There are fireworks early at Quail Hollow. Another morning of benign conditions is allowing players to make birdies, as seen from the hot starts from Homa and Joaquin Niemann. Homa is 5-under through seven holes, and Niemann is 4-under through seven. DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, and Tyrrell Hatton are all under par in the early stages of their second rounds.