PGA Championship forecaddie: Running analysis of Round 1 at Quail Hollow
Stay tuned throughout the day as theScore keeps you updated with insights and analysis from Round 1 of the PGA Championship.
Welcome in!
We tracked what went down at Quail Hollow Golf Club during Round 1 and provided analysis on what we saw. We focused on the leaders, marquee names, and any surprises throughout the day. (All times ET.)
8:35 p.m. - The leaderboard and oddsboard could not be more different. The players who went low in Round 1 are not receiving any respect from the betting market. Take a look.
Place | Player | Score | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Jhonattan Vegas | -7 | +2500 |
T2 | Cam Davis | -5 | +3500 |
T2 | Ryan Gerard | -5 | +4000 |
T4 | Aaron Rai | -4 | +2500 |
T4 | Stephan Jaeger | -4 | +4000 |
T4 | Alex Smalley | -4 | +5000 |
T4 | Ryan Fox | -4 | +5500 |
T4 | Luke Donald | -4 | +25000 |
Odds via theScore Bet
Meanwhile, here are the players oddsmakers believe have the best shot at winning.
Player (Score) | Odds |
---|---|
Scottie Scheffler (-2) | +350 |
Bryson DeChambeau (E) | +900 |
Tyrrell Hatton (-3) | +1600 |
Jon Rahm (-1) | +1800 |
Ludvig Aberg (-1) | +1800 |
Viktor Hovland (-2) | +2200 |
Aaron Rai (-4) | +2500 |
Collin Morikawa (-1) | +2500 |
Rory McIlroy (+3) | +2500 |
Jhonattan Vegas (-7) | +2500 |
The point is - a lot of golf is left to be played. The top of the leaderboard might lack star power, but that can change quickly Friday.
8:15 p.m. - Jhonattan Vegas out of nowhere! The 40-year-old birdies five of his final six holes to snag a 2-shot lead. He has one top-35 finish in majors throughout his career. Vegas gained 4.64 strokes tee to green and added another 2.77 with his putter. A truly incredible round.
7:15 p.m. - Bryson DeChambeau bogeys the 18th to card an even-par 71. His bogey moves his outright odds from +600 to +900, but he remains second on the oddsboard behind Scottie Scheffler (+350). Jon Rahm (-1), Ludvig Aberg (-1), and Tyrrell Hatton (-3), are all +1800. This tournament is wide open.
6:35 p.m. - Collin Morikawa had a great round going until the 18th. His punch-out from the right trees found the creek running alongside the fairway. A costly double-bogey drops him back to 1-under for the day, moving his outright odds from +900 to +2500.
6:00 p.m. - Ok, Justin Thomas. The two-time PGA champ birdies three straight holes to get back to 1-over par. It looked like he had nothing going earlier in the round, but is showing some fight as his day comes to an end.
5:45 p.m. - Morikawa climbs to 2-under with back-to-back birdies on Nos. 14 and 15 while gaining strokes across the board. Hatton (-3) and Ludvig Aberg (-2) are two others putting together notable afternoon rounds.
5:00 p.m. - Cam Davis is cooking. He's 6-under through 15 to take the solo lead. The Aussie has gained over five strokes putting and ranks 53rd in the field in strokes gained: tee to green.
4:05 p.m. - Is the cream starting to rise to the top? Aberg, Hatton, and Viktor Hovland are 2-under midway through their opening rounds, and they're three of the top six favorites.
3:40 p.m. - Bryson DeChambeau's distance control looks off again, just as it was at the Masters. He's lost over a stroke on his approach shots through six holes.

3:15 p.m. - Thomas is 4-over through his first seven holes and has hit only two greens in regulation. Morikawa and DeChambeau are also 1-over on the day, continuing the trend of pre-tournament favorites getting off to slow starts.
2:35 p.m. - Ryan Gerard bogeys his final two holes, which are both playing over par on the day, to drop back to 5-under par, good for the early clubhouse lead. He's ahead of Luke Donald, Ryan Fox, Alex Smalley, and Stephan Jaeger by one.
2:00 p.m. - Players from the morning wave are starting to sign their scorecards. Let's break down what we saw from some of the notables with a morning tee time.
Scottie Scheffler: He carded a 2-under 69 with a double-bogey on his seventh hole. His approach play wasn't sharp, but he was saved by his short game. He gained over 1.5 strokes around the green, highlighted by a chip-in eagle on No. 15. He birdied two of his final three holes to give him some positive momentum heading into Round 2.
Rory McIlroy: He shot a 3-over 74, doubling the same hole Scheffler did. However, McIlroy played his remaining holes at 1-over following his double-bogey and was let down by his driver and putter most of the day. He lost over two strokes putting and hit only four of 14 fairways. McIlroy closed as the tournament favorite, but his odds have lengthened to +2500 after his sluggish start.
Xander Schauffele: The defending champion played alongside Scheffler and McIlroy, playing equally uninspiring golf. A double-bogey on the par-4 16th also derailed his round as he made only one birdie in his final 11 holes. His driver was the lone bright spot of the day, but he'll need to clean up the other aspects if he's going to make a strong title defense.

Jon Rahm: The Spaniard made the turn at 2-under, but four bogeys on his second nine prevented him from posting a low score. He finished the day at 1-under, a solid opening round that didn't knock him out of contention.
Brooks Koepka: It was a miserable day for the three-time PGA champion. He lost nearly 1.5 strokes tee to green, and another stroke with his putter to post a round of 75. He has one top-20 finish in a major since winning the Wanamaker Trophy in 2023 and is coming off a missed cut at the Masters. He'll need to do some heavy lifting Friday to have any hope of contending.
Ryan Gerard: He'll likely be the first-round leader as he's 7-under through 16 holes. He's been lights out in all aspects of the game, but he has zero history of contending in majors. It's tough to envision him hanging around for very long.
12:45 p.m. - It's been an interesting opening round, but not for an overly exciting reason. Twelve players are 3-under or better, but DataGolf isn't giving any of them more than a 5% shot at winning the tournament. Scheffler is even par, the best of the notable names on the course. Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are also stuck in the mud at 2-over. The door is wide open for Bryson DeChambeau to make noise in the afternoon and take a stranglehold of this tournament.
11:50 a.m. - Scheffler gets it back to red numbers with a birdie on No. 2 after his double on the 16th. He's losing strokes to the field on approach shots, which are usually his bread and butter. Scheffler is the +375 favorite on theScoreBet/ESPN Bet.
11:30 a.m. - The scoring average around Quail Hollow is 1.84 shots over par. Donald, Fox, and Alex Noren all share the lead at 4-under with 20 players under par. Brooks Koepka (+5), Patrick Cantlay (+4), Schauffele (+2), and McIlroy (+2) are among the notables off to tough starts.
No offense to Donald, but the European Ryder Cup captain is gaining over four strokes on the green. That's an unsustainable clip, and his time atop the leaderboard is likely going to be short-lived.

11:10 a.m. - McIlroy makes the turn at 1-over, which might have been the best score he could have shot. He hit only one fairway on his opening nine and seems to be battling a case of the lefts. Two wayward drives to the left were the reasons for his bogey and double-bogey on his first nine.
10:50 a.m. - With the pre-tournament favorites struggling, DeChambeau's odds shorten from +900 to +650 before he's even teed off. Rahm is +1100 after making the turn at 2-under. Schauffele is all the way down at +7000 and is worth a bet with so much golf left to be played.
10:30 a.m. - Carnage at the par-4 16th for the morning's marquee group. McIlroy, Scheffler, and Schauffele all make a double-bogey. Scheffler erases an eagle he made on the previous hole to fall back to even, while Schauffele drops to 2-over and McIlroy moves to 1-over.
10:20 a.m. - Nine players are tied for the lead at 3-under, including both Ryder Cup captains, Keegan Bradley and Donald. Cantlay and Shane Lowry are two surprises who are struggling, sitting at 2-over midway through their rounds.
9:30 a.m. - The entire morning wave is on the course. McIlroy, Scheffler, Schauffele, Rahm, and Koepka are among those with early tee times. The weather in Charlotte is ideal, and Quail Hollow looks immaculate. It's early, but the scoring average is currently 2-over despite the benign conditions.
Scheffler doesn't look overly sharp, hitting only one green in regulation through four holes. He chipped in on the par-4 12th to erase the bogey he posted on his second hole of the day.
Schauffele seems comfortable in the first few holes of his title defense, and McIlroy is even par with a birdie and a bogey on his scorecard.
Ryan Fox and Tommy Fleetwood are holding the extremely early lead at 3-under par, proving there are birdies to be made.
HEADLINES
- Vegas grabs lead as stars falter at Quail Hollow
- Scottie, Xander point to mud balls as cause for double-bogeys
- Quail Hollow gets best of major stalwarts McIlroy, Koepka
- Thomas' wild round at the PGA ends with no shoe, no sock, and a 73
- Spieth's chance at completing career slam dashed by opening-round 76