3M Open betting preview: Will another Canadian find the winner's circle?

The PGA TOUR returns stateside after two weeks in the U.K. for the 3M Open in Minnesota.

A full field of 156 players will take on TPC Twin Cities to compete for one of the two remaining titles of the regular season before the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Defending champion Tony Finau headlines this week's field, with Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama rounding out the marquee names.

The course

• TPC Twin Cities, Blaine, Minnesota
• 7,431 yards, par 71
• Arnold Palmer design
• Water in play on 15 of 18 holes
• Bentgrass greens
• Second-shot course that can turn into a putting contest

Past winners

2022: Tony Finau (-17) by three over Emiliano Grillo, Sungjae Im
2021: Cameron Champ (-15) by two over three players
2020: Michael Thompson (-19) by two over Adam Long
2019: Matthew Wolff (-21) by one over Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa

The favorites

Initially, Finau opened as the favorite before the odds shifted to make Young and Im co-favorites at +1400.

Finau deserves to be near the top of the group given his body of work over the past couple of seasons, but +1600 is far too short considering he hasn't finished inside the top 20 since his win in Mexico at the end of April.

Young is coming off of a grueling week at the Open Championship where he played alongside winner Brian Harman in the final pairing. Young possesses the same skill set of recent 3M Open winners who hit the ball a mile off the tee, but concerns of fatigue are enough to make backing him at +1400 a scary proposition.

Thomas has to be mentioned as his recent struggles have dominated headlines, especially since he sits outside the top 70 on the FedEx Cup points list and is in danger of missing the postseason. Outside of a ninth-place showing at the Travelers Championship, his play has been downright awful. He's missed four of his last seven cuts and finished outside the top 50 twice. Even in a weaker field, backing Thomas at +2500 isn't a prudent strategy.

The next tier

There are a couple of options in this next tier to consider for the outright market, including PGA TOUR rookie Ludvig Aberg.

The young Swede's game fits TPC Twin Cities to a tee. He might already be the best driver of the ball in the field as he's gained at least four strokes off the tee in each of his five starts since he turned pro. Aberg gained a whopping 7.83 strokes through ball-striking (off the tee plus approach) while coming T4 at the John Deere Classic.

Aaron Rai is another name to consider. The Englishman relies heavily on his accuracy off the tee to plot his way around a course, which bodes well at a venue that has water in play on 15 of 18 holes. Rai has two top-10 results in his last four starts, including a T3 at the Canadian Open.

Finally, Adam Hadwin has fantastic course history at this event with two top-six finishes in three starts. He was in the mix at the Canadian Open four starts ago and lost to Rickie Fowler in a playoff in early July. Even though he's not the most consistent player on TOUR, the Canadian has a knack for finishing near the top of the leaderboard more frequently than other players priced around him at +4000.

Long shots

Long shots tend to perform well at TPC Twin Cities, with three of the past four winners all coming in with +10000 or greater odds prior to Round 1. Here are a few worth looking at.

• Nicolai Hojgaard (+5000): The Dane was near the top of the leaderboard heading into the final round at The Open before a 74 sunk him to T23. Still, he's uber-talented and is already a two-time winner on the DP World Tour in his young career. There's no reason why he can't contend in Minnesota.
• Austin Eckroat (+6000): He was a darling of the golf-betting space not too long ago before letting backers down at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Eckroat showed fantastic ball-striking abilities through May and June, making it worth the risk at +6000 to see if Eckroat's form can return.
• Doug Ghim (+8000): He posted six straight top-33 finishes before missing the cut at the Scottish Open. During that stretch, Ghim demonstrated he still has the stellar ball-striking skills he flashed early on in his career. Another high finish at the 3M Open will remind everyone why he was so highly touted coming out of the University of Texas.
• Chez Reavie (+10000): He's made eight straight cuts and gained at least 3.5 strokes through his ball-striking in five consecutive events. Reavie is by no means the longest hitter on TOUR, but his ability to find nearly every fairway will keep big numbers on his scorecard.
• Trevor Cone (+40000): He finished T3 in his most recent start at the Barbasol Championship where he led the field in strokes gained: tee to green.

Picks to win

Lucas Glover (+4000)

No one is hitting the ball better on this field than Lucas Glover. The former U.S. Open champ has recorded three straight top-six finishes entering the 3M Open, including a T5 at the Barbasol Championship where he gained 10 strokes on approach shots.

Glover has gained strokes in two of his past three events following a putter swap. If the putter can remain solid, and if his approach play from two weeks ago travels to Minnesota, Glover will be in contention for a fourth consecutive event.

Taylor Pendrith (+5000)

Taylor Pendrith fits the mold of recent 3M Open winners. He can bomb it off the tee, owns a solid iron game, and can get hot with his putter every so often.

The Canadian finished T14 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two starts ago before coming T6 at the Barbasol Championship. He gained 8.1 and 7.3 strokes gained: tee to green in those events, respectively. Add in the extra motivation from four of his fellow countrymen having already won on the PGA TOUR this season, and Pendrith is primed for a breakthrough week in Minny.

Garrick Higgo (+6600)

Garrick Higgo is currently in complete control of his off-the-tee game. He's improved upon each of his last three starts, capped with a T19 at the Scottish Open, and he gained the majority of his strokes off the tee in those three events.

Higgo has three professional wins in his career, including one on the PGA TOUR, all of which came in a five-tournament stretch. He's a form player who appears to be trending toward a top-tier finish.