Golf finishes up its major championships just a stone's throw from where The Beatles were born. The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool isn't our last chance to roll over success from The Masters and the PGA Championship, but it is the final opportunity for all the best golfers in the world to "Come Together" on the same course.
With the Open last played at Hoylake in 2014, many players have some course history, and few contenders were in the field when Tiger Woods won in 2006. Complicating things is that the conditions for those tournaments were dry, whereas there's much more rain and wind in the forecast this week.
The 'Fab Four'
Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, or Rory McIlroy? ... Brooks Koepka?
From the perspective of the oddsboard, Scottie Scheffler was supposed to win the Masters. Jon Rahm did. Rahm was favored to win the PGA Championship. Brooks Koepka reminded us that he's not done yet. Koepka got the bump up the board for the U.S. Open, only to see Rory McIlroy get out-kicked at the wall by the relatively unknown Wyndham Clark. Now, McIlroy, coming off a win last week in Scotland, takes his turn as a major favorite, but given his inability to close, at the prices, it's best to "Let It Be."
Koepka can be found for as long as +2200 after touching 10-1 before L.A.C.C. and we know he only cares about these events. Of course, playing on the LIV Tour means we don't have any stats to back up his recent form. Scheffler is neck-and-neck with McIlroy's price, as it's been eight tournaments since he's finished outside the top five, and his strokes gained: tee-to-green numbers (+2.8 per round) are off the charts.
Top draws (odds to win/top 20)
Golfers more valuable than their odds suggest this week:
Jon Rahm (+1200/-175)
Rahm has been "Here, There, and Everywhere" except competing recently, playing a total of just two tournament rounds since Los Angeles. McIlroy and Scheffler's odds are reflective of good form, while Rahm has been out of sight and mind, allowing his usual price of shorter than 10-1 to creep up the same way it did before Augusta despite being just as capable of winning.
Rahm doesn't have a great Open record, but more than any other tournament, those results can be swayed by elements of luck. A glance at the forecast this week suggests rain in the morning on Thursday when Scheffler and Koepka play their first round, with the sun shining in time for Rahm and McIlroy's afternoon rounds. If that split in conditions is wider than forecasted, Rahm may find himself on the good side of the draw.
Rickie Fowler (+2200/+110)
Rickie Fowler's not under the radar after getting back to where he once belonged at Detroit Golf Club - datagolf.com's closest course fit to Royal Liverpool - but that doesn't disqualify him from a big week at Hoylake, where only McIlroy beat him in 2014. Fowler had top-20 finishes in 10 of 11 tournaments coming into the Scottish Open, and only a rough final round pushed him out of another one after three days in the 60s. Given that he only has to "Get Back" in the top 20 half the time to be profitable at +110, there's still some value left in one of the best players in the world this season.
Justin Thomas (+6600/+225)
Speaking of the best in the game, Justin Thomas might have been crying for "Help!" with recent rounds providing negative headlines. However, Thomas put three under-par rounds on the board before Sunday's high winds at the Scottish Open and was T9 in the last designated PGA Tour event. Fundamentally, this is about price for a player with all the shots, a creative short game, and one of the best caddies of all time - Jim "Bones" Mackay - on the bag. 66-1 is as buy-low as you can get, and its translation to +225 for a top 20 is too good to pass up.
The scary fade
A golfer with high expectations who's worth betting to miss the cut at a big price.
Jason Day (+150 to miss cut)
Like Fowler, Jason Day had a "Here Comes The Sun" type of win relatively recently. However, his results have since fallen off a cliff. Day needed a second-round 64 at the Travellers Championship just to avoid missing four straight cuts after the win, and he missed the cut in the last two British Opens he played. Day's never played in the Scottish Open to get ready for the demands of links golf.
The favorite club in the bag
We've picked two golfers to bet to win each week: Max Homa and Tom Kim. Assuming they play 20-25 events, we're expecting our second-tier oddsboard duo will win more than once and be profitable. It took one week for that approach to pay dividends: Homa won at Torrey Pines at 20-1 and almost added a second win at Riviera.
Are Max and Tom playing this week?
Homa and Kim are each in the neighborhood of 50-1 to win and, after a "Long and Winding Road" this season, both played well enough in Scotland to be worth a look for a top 20 at +165 and +175, respectively. Kim was in the final group on Sunday and went low in the final round at the U.S. Open.
Last year, Homa got saddled with the distraction of playing next to his idol in Woods' final appearance at St. Andrews. Homa's got the ball-striking ability to make a leap in his third Open Championship.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
