Rocket Mortgage betting preview: Long shots to thrive in Motor City
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The PGA TOUR heads to Detroit this week for the fifth running of the Rocket Mortgage Classic from Detroit Golf Club.
With the event back in its original slot on the TOUR's schedule - a few weeks ahead of the Open Championship - the field is stronger than last year's edition. Defending champion Tony Finau will be joined by Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Hideki Matsuyama in the 156-man field.
The course
- 7,370 yards, par 72
- Donald Ross design
- Predominantly bentgrass greens
- Four par 4s under 400 yards
- Three par 5s under 580 yards
- Tree-lined fairways with thick, 4-inch rough
- Comparable venues: Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship)
Past winners
2022: Tony Finau (-26) by five over three players
2021: Cam Davis (-18) in a playoff over Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23) by three over Matthew Wolff
2019: Nate Lashley (-26) by six over Doc Redman
The favorites
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tony Finau | +1200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 |
| Rickie Fowler | +1400 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1800 |
| Max Homa | +1800 |
| Tom Kim | +1800 |
Finau ran away with the title last year, beating Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, and Taylor Pendrith by five shots. However, the 33-year-old American was playing a lot better last summer than he is currently. He's posted one top-10 finish since the start of February, whereas his victory in Detroit last year came the week after he claimed the 3M Open.
Fowler at +1400 is tough to ignore given his impressive recent form. He's finished inside the top 15 in seven of his previous eight starts and only has one missed cut - at the PGA Championship - over that span. Fowler's sixth career TOUR win definitely feels like it's on the horizon, and no one would blame you for taking a shot this week. But +1400 feels a tad short compared to the players he's priced next to. If you're also hesitant about Fowler's winning potential, a top-20 bet at -115 is a juicy alternative.
Morikawa would be the play if forced to select one of the favorites. He had a miserable first round at the Travelers Championship last week but fired a 7-under 63 in Round 2 to continue his trend toward the elite-level form we've become used to seeing from the two-time major champ.
The next tier
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sungjae Im | +2000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +3000 |
| Cam Davis | +3300 |
| Brian Harman | +4500 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +4500 |
Bradley (+3000) collected his second title of the season last week at TPC River Highlands. He did so by gaining seven shots on the field through his approach play and putting. Bradley is starting to show a little more consistency with the flatstick, but his putting game will likely take a step back and prevent him from winning back-to-back.
Aberg (+4500) is the latest shiny new toy to emerge onto the PGA TOUR. The former top-ranked amateur in the world collected three top-25 finishes in four starts this season, doing so with a stellar off-the-tee game. Aberg could easily overpower Detroit Golf Club with his distance - the same strategy previous winners Bryson DeChambeau, Cam Davis, and Finau deployed. Perhaps the best value available on Aberg is a top-40 wager at even money if you aren't confident in his ability to win in only his third start as a pro.
Picks
We're skipping the long-shots section of the breakdown given all three picks to win this week are coming in at above +5000. Despite some marquee names at the top of the betting board, this tournament is more open than typical events due to the easier course setup.
Alex Smalley (+5500)
Smalley is fresh off a T9 showing at the Travelers where he gained 9.3 strokes tee to green, including 5.8 through his approach play. His finish in Connecticut marks his fourth top-25 result in his previous six tournaments. In all four of those starts, the 26-year-old gained at least 6.5 strokes tee to green.
Smalley is a top-10 ball-striker in the field over his past 24, 50, and 100 rounds. This level of consistency leads to plenty of birdie opportunities, which are required in Detroit, since the winning score has been 18-under or better in all four of its runnings.
Mark Hubbard (+7500)
Hubbard is averaging 4.35 strokes gained on approach over his last eight events, a span in which he's recorded three top-11 finishes. He came sixth at the Canadian Open before missing the cut by two shots last week despite going under par in both rounds.
His boom-or-bust style is exactly what you're looking for in a +7500 long shot. He's currently in the middle of the best stretch of his career from a results standpoint, all because of his iron play. Backing him at +400 to finish inside the top 20 is also worth a bet.
Doug Ghim (+10000)
Ghim has been lights out tee to green over his past four starts. The 27-year-old is averaging over eight strokes gained: tee to green and has four straight top-30 results and back-to-back top-15s.
If this level of tee-to-green play continues into Detroit, Ghim could become the third +10000 or longer winner of the Rocket Mortgage Classic in the past five years.
Betting Ghim to place inside the top 20 at +400 or the top 40 at +140 is another way to get exposure to someone trending toward another strong performance.