PGA Championship betting: Climbing a major mountain at Oak Hill
After 10 years, a shift in the schedule from August to May, and a cosmetic and functional restoration to the course, the PGA Championship returns to Oak Hill Country Club. Like Jason Dufner or Shaun Micheel before, will a longshot strike for their lone major championship victory? Or will it be one of seemingly dozens of reasonable contenders in what look like breezy and lush conditions in western New York?
Justin Thomas is +2200 to defend a PGA Championship won at a comparable Southern Hills - the site of his 2022 come-from-behind victory. We'll pass on betting on that accomplishment, instead looking to a handful of others in various markets.
The top shelf
Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, or Rory McIlroy?
We looked at this trio before The Masters and used some basic logic to find the winner with Jon Rahm, as he had the longest odds - as high as 10-to-1. That same thinking applies to Rory McIlroy this time around, as he's +1200 compared to the two favorites at +800.
McIlroy understood that he needed some time off after The Masters, and we won't take much away from a lacklustre showing in his return at the Wells Fargo Championship. He was fifth at Southern Hills last year in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and he was tied for eighth at Oak Hill in 2013. He's plus-money in head-to-head matchups with Rahm, and with driving accuracy seemingly so important this week, his strength could help snap his major drought. That would please a recent volunteer coaching assistant - a fellow by the name of Tiger Woods.
Top draws (odds to win/top 20)
Golfers more valuable than their odds suggest this week:
Viktor Hovland (+2800 / +137)
After back-to-back top 10s in majors, Viktor Hovland should feel like he's getting close to breaking through and at a point where he's less worried about the regular events, instead tuning up for the big ones. Even without a PGA Tour win in 2023, Hovland is sixth in strokes gained: off the tee. With tight fairways and punishing rough at Oak Hill, the type of ball-striking that Hovland can execute in the wind should be an advantage. At even-money, he's a good bet for top Scandinavian.
Tommy Fleetwood (+6000 / +220)
Speaking of premium ball-strikers, Tommy Fleetwood was 11th in strokes gained: tee-to-green at Southern Hills last year, and more recently fifth in the same category two weeks ago at Quail Hollow - a former and future major site. Asking for a win might be excessive, but better than 2-to-1 is a good price for contention from Fleetwood.
Tom Kim (+9000 / +280)
One of our favorites to have a big year, Tom Kim hasn't had the results we hoped for after wins in 2022. However, he's fourth in driving accuracy on the tour and was eighth in strokes gained: tee-to-green at Quail Hollow - a metric that positively underlies a T23 finish. He's +500 to top Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, and Si Woo Kim for top Asian this week.
Gary Woodland (+8000 / +350)
Capable of handling the length of major courses, Gary Woodland comes in having finished second in SG: tee-to-green at Quail Hollow. The thing we like most about Woodland, though, is his matchup with Bryson DeChambeau. A -150 price tag implies that Woodland needs to beat him 60% of the time, and with the way DeChambeau has trended, that's a fair price.
Adam Scott (+8000 / +260)
A testament to his longevity, Adam Scott is the only player with quality results at Oak Hill in both 2013 (T5) and 2003 (T23). Now he comes in with back-to-back top 10s and gets a beneficial matchup with Corey Conners, who's missed the cut in five of his last six U.S. majors outside of Augusta National.
LIV'ing it up
Dustin Johnson (+2500)
Brooks Koepka won the LIV event right before The Masters, and his performance through three rounds at Augusta National reminded the golf world that the best of those that left the PGA Tour still have high-end ability even without much competition the rest of the year.
That reminder might come again, this time from Dustin Johnson, who won last week. At +400 to be the top LIV member, DJ has the best chance to contend among the rogue group. We don't get strokes gained statistics from those events, but with contending efforts at Winged Foot in 2021, a top 10 back in 2013, and numerous other results at brawny courses built for his game, Johnson might be ready to add a third different major title at what seems like a bigger price than what it would be had he opted to stay in the PGA Tour's spotlight.
The scary fade
A golfer with high expectations who's worth betting to miss the cut at a big price
Sahith Theegala (+150 to miss cut)
If we like good drivers of the ball, we should dislike bad drivers, right? Sahith Theegala is great at escaping from the places where his 155th-best driving accuracy puts him week-to-week, but that's not going to work out of the rough of Oak Hill. If he spends half his second shots coming out of the thick grass, it will be a quick week for Theegala.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.