Rarely does a final round of a golf tournament mirror the needs of bettors in the way that the BMW Championship did Sunday. After Will Zalatoris withdrew Saturday, Scottie Scheffler didn't need a strong finish to get the top seed for the Tour Championship, and perhaps a lack of concentration resulted in a missed par putt on the 72nd hole.
After Corey Conners and Aaron Wise finished strong - barely getting into the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings and punching their ticket to East Lake - Xander Schauffele's missed putt for a push with Scheffler was easier to swallow. That's especially true after we watched Collin Morikawa make a 10 to careen from the top five to outside the top 20.
So concludes a PGA TOUR season, which was wilder off-course than on, and now things get spicy as those at the top of the standings get a head start toward the boosted $18-million first prize.
TOUR Championship odds
| STARTING SCORE | ODDS TO WIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | -10 | +200 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -8 | +350 |
| Will Zalatoris | WD | - |
| Xander Schauffele | -6 | +650 |
| Sam Burns | -5 | +2000 |
| Cameron Smith | -4 | +2200 |
| Rory McIlroy | -4 | +900 |
| Tony Finau | -4 | +1600 |
| Sepp Straka | -4 | +12500 |
| Jon Rahm | -4 | +1400 |
| Justin Thomas | -3 | +2500 |
| Scott Stallings | -3 | +10000 |
| Cameron Young | -3 | +5000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -3 | +4000 |
| Sungjae Im | -3 | +2500 |
| Max Homa | -2 | +10000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2 | +8000 |
| Jordan Spieth | -2 | +7000 |
| Joaquin Niemann | -2 | +6600 |
| Viktor Hovland | -2 | +6600 |
| Collin Morikawa | -1 | +6600 |
| Tom Hoge | -1 | +35000 |
| Corey Conners | -1 | +8000 |
| Billy Horschel | -1 | +15000 |
| Brian Harman | -1 | +20000 |
| K.H. Lee | E | +30000 |
| J.T. Poston | E | +35000 |
| Sahith Theegala | E | +20000 |
| Adam Scott | E | +15000 |
| Aaron Wise | E | +20000 |
*Odds from theScore Bet
Last year, we worked out that one "artificial" stroke is worth a 3% change in win probability, which means Scheffler's chances of beating Patrick Cantlay are 6% better than they'd otherwise be.
Zalatoris' withdrawal Tuesday morning sparked an odds shortening for the top six on the board plus John Rahm, with the remaining players unchanged.
With starting strokes markets
To win tournament
Scheffler is getting a four-stroke head start on everyone but Cantlay, and Schauffele is awesome at East Lake. (He's never finished lower than seventh.) These are not secrets, and the oddsmakers have baked this into their short prices for those three. As a result, when looking for value, we have to tab players who are capable of going thermonuclear and can run down top players while topping Schauffele on one of his favorite courses.
Rory McIlroy (+900) led the field in strokes gained: tee-to-green (+2.62) last week, edging the winner of the tournament, according to DataGolf, but lost strokes to Cantlay (and the field) on the greens. However, he got the biggest boost in implied win probability with Zalatoris' withdrawal and is out of price range after being 14-1.
McIlroy is tied with Rahm (+1400) before the tournament starts. The Spaniard showed he can make up strokes quickly last week after starting 5-over but still finishing T8. Rahm made putts in Rounds 2-4, gaining 3.41 strokes on the field. If he's anywhere close to that and has expected-level ball-striking, he can track down Scheffler and Cantlay, like he almost did last year.
Viktor Hovland (+6600) had a weird week at Wilmington Country Club, going low Sunday to offset a tournament where his strokes gained: around-the-green stats were actually his best. In two trips to the TOUR Championship, he's never shot worse than 70. The Norwegian is eighth in birdie-or-better percentage despite being 87th in greens in regulation this season, which can only happen if you get mega-hot for periods of time.
As for a matchup bet with the stroke handicap in play, Schauffele has played East Lake 20 times, and his worst round was a 70 (twice). Over 72 holes, he is +130 (43.5%) to track down his buddy, Cantlay, who, until last year, didn't have a great track record at the TOUR Championship.
Without starting strokes markets
In the tournament within the tournament, 72-hole scores can be affected by the fact they're not reflected on the scoreboard in the heat of competition. Scheffler can have a four-shot lead for the big money and make a bogey or two late, resulting in someone who started way behind taking the 72-hole low score and not even really knowing it.
Schauffele (+1000) will obviously have an easier time topping Scheffler's four-round score in this parallel market than he'll have in tracking him down from four back.
If you're not buying into Cameron Smith's (+1400) injury withdrawal last week, he's a good bet to have the best four days at East Lake in his own alleged TOUR finale.
Further down the board, Conners (+3300) handled the pressure of hanging on to his top-30 standing last week, finishing fourth in strokes gained: approach. He starts nine shots back, so the pressure is off, and while he might never be within three shots of the lead, he could still have the best 72-hole score ala Kevin Na last year.
As for matchups, Schauffele is -115 (53.5%) to make inroads on Scheffler, confirming our theory of 3% per stroke. Adam Scott worked hard to get into East Lake for just the second time since 2016, going low the last two weeks. Hovland (-125) should be able to edge him this week, though.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
