Charles Schwab Challenge betting: Lone stars at Colonial
The post-major hangover is all the more pronounced after an exciting PGA Championship final round, a tournament that was quite profitable in this space. You can have a great betting weekend without putting all your eggs in the outright winner basket, and a robust result in the matchup markets and top 20s supports that principle.
Colonial Country Club - a venerable course in Fort Worth, Texas - is a draw for many top players who otherwise might take the week off with the season's next major already approaching. After the short trip from Tulsa, who should we target in the various betting markets for the Charles Schwab Challenge?
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
Will Zalatoris demonstrated that you should look out for a top golfer coming off a rough tournament. After missing the cut at the Byron Nelson, Zalatoris was motivated to work on his game going into the PGA Championship.
While Morikawa struggled in Tulsa's ever-changing conditions, he's still the ball-striker we consistently believe in. In two starts at Colonial, his scores in the eight rounds played are 64, 67, 67, 67, 69, 66, 72, and 68. At -110 to make it three for three in top-20 finishes, expect Morikawa to play better on the relatively short course - like he did when he finished second to Daniel Berger in the first PGA tournament after the COVID break in 2020.
Chris Kirk (+4500)
We pulled off a nice winner in the top-20 market with Kirk last week even though he wasn't in top form entering the tournament. Now he's put together a small sample of good recent play, and his last win came at Colonial back in 2015. We're not getting +600 this time around, but +220 is nothing to sneeze at for Kirk to finish in the top 20.
Kevin Kisner (100-1)
Famous for asserting that golf is not a hobby for him, Kisner gets a shorter course than Southern Hills this week. The beastly length of many of the courses that host majors is too much for him, but at Colonial, he can compete, having put on the plaid jacket in 2017. At +330 to finish in the top 20, look for Kisner to grind out four good rounds and get back in the money after missing the cut in three of his last four events.
You can't win every week and, if given the choice, Thomas would much prefer having won last week versus this one. Five years after his first major title, Thomas felt the sweet relief from all the pressure that had built up, finally adding to his 2017 PGA win.
It's to his credit that he's playing in this event, as many of his counterparts would have immediately withdrawn. He's +550 to miss the cut, and if Thomas is simply honoring his commitment, he could miss the weekend and not blink twice.
Homa's effort in Oklahoma might have felt like a win: He finally had a strong showing in a major championship. Homa won in his previous start, so it would be easy to say that he's due for a letdown. The bigger issue, though, is that Homa's results at Colonial have been just OK - he's never shot better than 2-under. He's +300 to miss the cut and could easily take the weekend to reflect on a stellar month of May.
While our previous two fades are coming off highs, there's something to be said for dodging a golfer who just experienced the toughest moment of his career. Beyond his critical mistake on the 18th tee, Pereira's overall Sunday round put him in position to lose, and the rookie seems unlikely to pick up the pieces for a big bounce-back week. The way to fade Pereira in his first trip to Colonial is +250 to miss the cut.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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