When you find a course with a bunch of dogleg rights, there's going to be a point where a slice actually works well. That was the case last week when our call to put the big fade on Gary Woodland backfired, and he found his game, resulting in Sunday contention.
Luckily our quiet draws - Billy Horschel (+120) and C.T. Pan (+275) - found their way into the top 20. We were able to save face and do a little better than break even on the tournament, staying profitable in the early season (+3.4 units).
The PGA TOUR swings over to Bay Hill this weekend, and defending champion Bryson DeChambeau has bowed out due to injury, opening things up for the rest of the field.
Three draws
Will Zalatoris
With Scottie Scheffler breaking his maiden in Scottsdale, Zalatoris may be the young player who takes over as the next star still looking for his first TOUR victory. Zalatoris tied for 10th in his only appearance at Bay Hill - a course that suits his precision long-iron game.
Zalatoris can be tough to watch on the greens down the stretch, but using him as a plus-money play for a top 20 and in a matchup with Adam Scott is how I'd go about backing the wiry ball-striker.
Keith Mitchell
Mitchell's metrics match up nicely with Zalatoris and, therefore, fit well on Arnold Palmer's home track. Maybe it's because of an outlier missed cut at Torrey Pines, but Mitchell's five top-12 finishes in his last six tournaments have flown under the radar. At +180 to finish with another top 20, there's value in backing the 2019 Honda Classic champion, who finished tied for fifth in the 2020 API.
Chris Kirk
Like Mitchell, this Georgia Bulldog has had success at Bay Hill with two of his best results in the last few years. Kirk missed the tournament in 2020 but has a T-8 in 2021 and a T-15 in 2019 when playing in Orlando. Kirk finished T-7 last week at the Honda Classic, keeping the momentum going from a top-20 finish at TPC Scottsdale. At +275, there's more than enough reason to back him for another top-20 finish this week.
Three slices
Sam Burns
Maybe it seems like we're picking on Burns after using him successfully in this space two weeks ago. However, if you're going to miss three straight cuts, we have to conclude that your game isn't sharp enough. Burns is +275 to miss the cut because he's the 16th-ranked golfer in the world, but he's not playing that way. Another way to fade Burns is to back Jason Kokrak (+100) in their head-to-head matchup.
Corey Conners
It's easy to make a case for Conners to have success this week since he profiles a lot like Zalatoris and Mitchell. His third-place finish at Bay Hill last year is promising, but that came during a stretch of play for the Canadian where he missed just one cut in 20 tournaments. This time around, Conners has played through the weekend just once in the last four tries. Avoid him in all markets.
Cameron Young
Fresh off the Korn Ferry TOUR, Young is playing well after some early struggles in his rookie season on the PGA. But Young is playing for the seventh week in a row, which is a tall task for even the most enthusiastic touring pro. A candidate to run out of gas late on Friday, he's +200 to miss the cut and is worth a look at playing against in matchup markets.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
