WGC at The Concession betting preview: Go back to the well with JT

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The PGA Tour is in Bradenton, Florida, this week for the relocated WGC-Championship at The Concession Golf Club.

The tournament was played in Mexico for the past four years but was relocated to the sunshine state due to COVID-19, and will kick off the Tour's Florida swing.

Seventy-three players will take on the Jack Nicklaus-designed venue for the no-cut event. The field is lined with talent, as 48 of the top 50 players in the world are competing for the $1.82-million winner's check.

The course

• The Concession Golf Club, Bradenton, Florida
• 7,564 yards, par 72
• Designed by Jack Nicklaus
• Bermudagrass greens
• Water in play on 12 holes
• Three par 5s over 600 yards
• Three par 4s over 475 yards

Past winners

2020: Patrick Reed (-18) over Bryson DeChambeau
2019: Dustin Johnson (-21) over Rory McIlroy
2018: Phil Mickelson (-16) in a playoff over Justin Thomas
2017: Dustin Johnson (-14) over Tommy Fleetwood
2016: Adam Scott (-12) over Bubba Watson
2015: Dustin Johnson (-9) over J.B. Holmes
2014: Patrick Reed (-4) over Jamie Donaldson, Bubba Watson
2013: Tiger Woods (-19) over Steve Stricker

The favorites

Johnson is once again the favorite at +600, but unlike last week, he's followed closely by Rahm (+700) largely due to the tournament's small 73-man field. It's typical to see the top of the oddsboard congested in limited fields with no cut.

None of the names at the top are particularly intriguing until you drop all the way down to Thomas at +1600. The third-ranked player in the world excels in no-cut events, with nine of his 13 career wins coming in tournaments at which four rounds are guaranteed.

DeChambeau is also an option, but his wildness with his driver in combination with a number of water hazards makes it a bit risky. However, if he's driving it well, +1600 is a standout value option.

The next tier

Koepka, who recently won in Phoenix, isn't getting enough respect at +2000. Being a Florida resident, he should feel right at home at The Concession Club with its Bermudagrass greens and abundance of water.

The same goes for Berger (+2200), who's coming off his win at Pebble Beach. He loves Florida golf and is a really good putter on Bermudagrass greens. There's no reason to think the world No. 15 can't win back-to-back starts.

Im, Morikawa, and English also jump off the page as undervalued players in this range. All three are fantastic ball-strikers with victories under their belts within the last year. English recently beat a similar field in Hawaii to open 2021.

Long shots

With four guaranteed rounds, the cream tends to rise to the top in WGC events. However, there are some top-tier players with juicy odds this week who are worth taking a closer look at:

• Cameron Smith (+5500): Australian Ian Baker-Finch said on last week's broadcast that The Concession Golf Club should remind Smith of courses from home. Smith is also coming off a fourth-place result at the Genesis Invitational.
• Abraham Ancer (+8000): After a whirlwind week battling winter storms in Texas, Ancer made it to L.A. but missed the cut. As a result, you're getting a discount on a player who typically has odds in the +5000 to +6600 range.
• Shane Lowry (+12500): The Irishman is a member of The Bear's Club - another Nicklaus-designed venue in Florida - but hasn't played in a while. Still, Lowry has a WGC win under his belt and turned in solid finishes to end 2020.

Picks to win

Justin Thomas (+1600)

We're going back to the well with Thomas after his disastrous week at Riviera, where he lost over five strokes on the greens.

"It's sort of a typical Florida layout. It sort of reminds me a little bit of the Bear's Club," Rory McIlroy said of The Concession Golf Club, according to Tee Scripts.

Thomas is a member of the Bear's Club and will be comfortable with The Concession's layout. He plays great on Bermudagrass and has had success on Nicklaus-designed courses throughout his career.

If The Concession is a second-shot course like many believe it is, Thomas will thrive. He's the best ball-striker on Tour and is lined up for a perfect rebound spot. Plus, as mentioned earlier, he tends to dominate no-cut events, with nine victories in his career.

Brooks Koepka (+2000)

Koepka is two starts removed from a victory, yet oddsmakers don't believe he's entirely back, or else he'd be priced around +1400 like he is at most major championships.

Like Thomas, Koepka is a Bear's Club member who spends a lot of time playing golf in Florida. His preferred putting surface is Bermudagrass and he's hitting it beautifully with both his driver and irons over the past two events.

Koepka already has a WGC title under his belt and was the runner-up in the most recent WGC in August.

Sungjae Im (+3500)

Im is playing after two weeks off in a row - a very rare occurrence for him. However, he's a grinder and definitely didn't kick up his fee during his time away from the PGA Tour.

You can fully expect him to come out firing at The Concession. He's played well to start the year with three top-20 results. The return to Bermudagrass should only help the 22-year-old, as his lone victory on Tour came in Florida at the Honda Classic - another course with plenty of water.