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The PGA Tour quickly turns the page on one season and moves right on to the next, starting with the Safeway Open.
With the fast turnaround following the Tour Championship and then the U.S. Open tees off next week, many marquee players are skipping the season opener. From an entertainment perspective, these weeks typically don't offer much due to the absence of players that casual fans actually know. But betting wise, tournaments like this make long-shot backers drool.
The course
- Silverado Resort North Course, Napa, California
- 7,166 yards, par 72
- Poa annua greens
- Four par 5s under 580 yards
- Rough won't be penalizing
- Short course that rewards long hitters
Past Safeway Open winners
2019: Cameron Champ (-17) over Adam Hadwin
2018: Kevin Tway (-14) over Ryan Moore, Brandt Snedeker
2017: Brendan Steele (-15) over Tony Finau
2016: Brendan Steele (-18) over Patton Kizzire
2015: Emiliano Grillo (-15) over Kevin Na
2014: Sangmoon Bae (-15) over Steven Bowditch
The favorites
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Phil Mickelson | +1500 |
| Brendan Steele | +1800 |
| Sergio Garcia | +1800 |
| Si Woo Kim | +1800 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2000 |
| Joel Dahmen | +2000 |
| Shane Lowry | +2000 |
See what we meant by a lack of star power this week?
This is the first time Phil Mickelson has been the favorite of a PGA Tour event in quite a while. He's coming off his first Champions Tour win, but stay away from the 50-year-old at +1800.
The rest of this crop is pretty easy to ignore, too, mainly because the talent gap between a +2000 golfer this week and one at +6600 isn't significant.
However, Joel Dahmen is worth considering, as he's playing very well lately. In stacked fields, Dahmen finished in the top 10 at the PGA Championship and turned in top-20 showings at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and BMW Championship.
The next tier
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brandt Snedeker | +2200 |
| Chez Reavie | +2200 |
| Harold Varner III | +2200 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2200 |
| Doc Redman | +2500 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +2500 |
| Cameron Davis | +3000 |
| Kevin Streelman | +3000 |
| Bud Cauley | +4000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +4000 |
| Sam Burns | +4000 |
As with the favorites, few obvious value plays jump off the page here.
Cameron Davis (+3000) is one player to consider. The young Australian dominates par 5s and makes a ton of birdies, which has previously been a recipe for success at Silverado. He's also posted two top-15 results over his last three starts.
Harold Varner III should play well this week following his recent run of quality ball-striking, but +2200 is a tough pill to swallow for a golfer who's never won on Tour before.
Pass on Jordan Spieth, Doc Redman, and the rest in this range simply because their prices are far too short.
The long shots
This is where the real fun begins, starting with Mark Hubbard at +6000. He's been on a tear lately with nine straight made cuts, and Hubbard is one of a few players in the field who qualified to play in the BMW Championship.
Next up is Denny McCarthy at +7000. The 27-year-old led the field in strokes gained: approach at the Wyndham Championship, and he's one of the best putters on Tour. Strong iron play and a hot flatstick is a lethal combination.
Jhonattan Vegas is also worth a look at +8000. The Venezuelan has been lights out with his ball-striking lately, and he fits the profile of a player who can win at Silverado. His length off the tee gives him an immediate advantage, especially on the par 5s. He's one good putting week away from contending.
Finally, go find the longest odds possible on a player named Tom Kim, an 18-year-old South Korean star who formerly competed under the name Joohyung Kim. His 111th world ranking is noteworthy due to the weak field, and he recently shot 70 in Round 1 of the PGA Championship. Prices on Kim vary, but he opened around 1000-1 this week, and anything north of 200-1 is worth a few bucks.
Picks to win
Cameron Davis (+3000)
This feels like a spot for Davis to break through. He consistently gains strokes off the tee, can get red-hot with his irons, and is a really good putter. He's one of the best scorers on par 5s and leads the field in birdie-or-better gained over the last 24 rounds.
Denny McCarthy (+7000)
While he's not as long as Davis off the tee, McCarthy shares a lot of similarities with the Aussie. He's a world-class putter who seems to be turning a corner with his iron play.
McCarthy has made five straight cuts, including one at the PGA Championship and another at the Memorial Tournament. His recent form and skills make him look similar to players priced in the +2000 range, yet you're getting McCarthy at over triple the odds.
Jhonattan Vegas (+8000)
Vegas has missed plenty of cuts, but you're buying the upside with him at +8000. He's a three-time PGA Tour winner, with one of those victories coming in California, and Vegas gets into contention from time to time.
If his recent ball-striking continues, he should thrive at the bomber's paradise that is Silverado's North Course while dominating the par 5s and recording plenty of birdies.
