WGC-FedEx St. Jude final-round betting preview
Brendon Todd holds the 54-hole lead of a PGA Tour event for the fourth time this season. He'll attempt to convert his one-shot advantage into his third victory of the 2019-20 campaign but will have to fend off some stiff competition to do so.
Here's how the top of the odds board sits going into Sunday:
| Player | Odds | To Par |
|---|---|---|
| Brendon Todd | +200 | -12 |
| Byeong Hun An | +250 | -11 |
| Rickie Fowler | +300 | -10 |
| Brooks Koepka | +500 | -9 |
| Justin Thomas | +1000 | -8 |
| Louis Oostuizen | +2600 | -7 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2800 | -7 |
| Phil Mickelson | +2800 | -7 |
Todd is the obvious favorite at +200, but don't forget it wasn't long ago when he blew a three-shot edge at the Travelers Championship to hand Dustin Johnson the trophy.
The main difference is Todd was hitting the ball much better in Connecticut than he is this week in Memphis. The 35-year-old ranks second in strokes gained: putting through 54 holes and 31st in strokes gained: tee to green. It will be a big ask of him to have another torrid day with the flatstick.
Byeong Hun An is next up at +250 but that's a short price considering the South Korean's lack of winning experience on the PGA Tour. You're better off taking Todd and the extra stroke at nearly the same price, but neither is a recommended play.
You could also justify taking Rickie Fowler at +300. However, his tendency to collapse on Sunday is concerning, and erasing a two-shot lead might be too much for someone who hasn't played very well since the restart.
Pick to win
Brooks Koepka (+500)
Koepka looked like two completely different players on Saturday. He appeared lost and disinterested on the front nine before turning things around on the back to remind everyone why he's collected four major titles since 2017.
It's safe to expect the latter version of Koepka will show up Sunday, especially since he's attempting to defend his WGC title. The 30-year-old ranks first in strokes gained: tee to green for the week and saw his putter heat up midway through Round 3.
Koepka has been at or within three strokes of the lead going into the final round nine times during his career. He's come out on top on six occasions with a scoring average of 67.2, according to 15th Club's Justin Ray.
Justin Thomas (+1000)
If there's one player at the top of the leaderboard who can fire 61 on Sunday and steal the title, it's Thomas. The world No. 3 has yet to have that super-low round but is on the brink after his exceptional ball-striking has thus far been ruined by an ice-cold putter.
However, Thomas hinted that he may have had a breakthrough on Saturday.
"I kind of found something those last 12 holes where I really started hitting some good putts and making them with good speed," he said.
If Thomas can carry what he found Saturday into the final round, don't be shocked if he's the one holding the hardware when it's all said and done.
(Odds courtesy: theScore Bet)